Auggie said:
Geo:
People don't buy electronics to consume the gold.
People, when buying electronics, are consuming gold, they are a consumer, and purchasing whatever has the gold plate, taking it out of the manufacture and retail stream until such a time as it's disposed of, and possibly the gold it contains is recovered, refined and put back into the manufacturing stream.
In fact, most people don't even know there is gold or any precious metals inside their computer.
I think people know that there are precious metals in their electronics and computers. You cannot go into any electronics store without being bombarded with this fact. If you have ever purchased anything that is hi-def, you will not only notice that you have a lot of gold plated contacts and leads, but also black rhodium and other precious metals. This statement just simply is not true. I was standing in line and Best Buy, and right there at the check out counter was gold plated hi-def connectors hanging on the end cap.
in fact, most people wouldn't even know where to start if you asked them what their computer is made of.
I really think you are selling people short. I come from a computer background (I used to be a WAN manager), I used to manage 167 remote locations. I can tell you that the people whom I spoke with over the phone, understood what their computers were made of. If you ask most people they will tell you they have metal, silicon, precious metals, etc etc etc. If you remember, in the 90s, computer CPUs were advertised with pictures. You would turn the page in a magazine and see a huge blown up picture of a Pentium, with all it's gold and glory.
If you are going to state things as empirical fact it would be nice if you would provide some evidence in the form of a study, or documentary or even statistics. But just stating something is a fact, does not then make it so.
So no, I don't think people being concerned about their product not working as well if the gold is removed is going to be a factor whatsoever in its acceptance.
Just the fact you found, and posted your link about a silver alloy is proof that companies creating these products are actively educating people about precious metals contained in retail consumer electronics. If given a choice between gold and silver, what do you honestly believe they are going to choose. Also, I don't think you are even considering how very little precious metals are contained in electronics, what a tiny percentage of the price it actually represents, and it's purpose. Gold is not plated for conductivity, otherwise silver would be used instead of gold because it conducts electricity much better. Gold is used as a corrosive barrier, the fact it conducts electricity so well and does not oxidize under normal conditions is the reason why the electronics industry uses gold instead of silver. So your silver alloy is the next evolutionary and logical step in the manufacturing of electronics. Your post does not say anything about removing precious metals from electronics, it simply is suggesting that a silver alloy might be used instead of gold. And if you know anything about gold, and silver, how it's mined, where it comes from, you would also realize that there is far less silver in the world, than gold. That it pulled out of the ground as a by-product of gold, lead, copper, platinum mining, that only 30% of the total annual silver production from mines, is from actual silver mines. If we are to believe your post, and your reasoning, this would mean an incredible boon for those of us who also refine silver. Silver is already undervalued, far more so than gold. Can you imagine what would happen to silver prices, if gold was no longer used and instead silver was?
Unless perhaps some company that has a vested interest in keeping gold in electronics starts an expensive marketing campaign, but that is a pretty silly idea.
Gold, Silver, Platinum now Rhodium and even to some extent Palladium are all advertised, and have been for hundreds of years, heavily. Who needs to advertise. The public already views these metals as being special, and they are correct. They already seek them out above tin, copper, iron, etc. Give anyone a choice between something that is copper plated, or gold, if they can afford it they will always, unless there is something else to consider, choose gold. Nobody needs to advertise anything. Let me give you a scenario. If you were building a home theater system, but you were doing it cheap. So you go to Wallmart to purchase your hi-def equipment. One DVD player is for 45.99 and the other is 50.99 which would you purchase? The difference is only $5.00, the less expensive one used your silver alloy, and the more expensive gold. Which would you purchase? I would think the majority of people would purchase the more expensive one because it has gold, than the less expensive one. The difference is a meal deal at Mc Donalds, which really amounts to nothing. American's and most other people in the world will choose quality or what they perceive to be quality, if they can afford it. In the future, because of the way psychological purchasing works, the fact something is gold plated will become a major selling point and "proof of quality" for many consumers. I don't think you are taking any time to really think about what you are saying. Not to be offensive, but you are just plain wrong in my humble opinion.
Scott
I think you are overlooking a few variables. First, consumption of gold for monetary use is increasing,
Gold consumption, and for that matter, precious metal consumption has increased every year since humans have known about it. In ancient times for example, the barbarian cultures held Rome ransom for gold, and when they could no longer pay, was plundered for it's gold. Ancient Egypt used to slather it on coffins and bury them. Kingdoms have risen and fallen because of it, millions have been enslaved to mine it and killed to plunder it. It has been used for everything from space vehicles to colloidal treatments for physical ailments. And yet it is still used more every year than the year prior, and there seems to be no end to it's uses, and the people who simply just desire to wear it. Your argument only makes the case for people like us who recover and refine gold, to look happily toward a future where it will become ever more profitable because of the increase in consumer consumption. This is not a bad thing for us, it means that scrap we otherwise might pass on because of the low profit margin, is now something that might be very very attractive to process indeed.
and it looks like whatever happens we are heading back to some sort of gold standard.
I actually posted about this on this thread.
http://goldrefiningforum.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=60&t=15370&p=155698#p155698 Do I actually believe we will move to a gold standard again? No, not really, but it did have me a bit concerned when I first posted that. Now however, after reading what other people added, and looking into it further, I feel that if I am already an established refiner, with my business license, etc. That I would be grandfathered in so to speak. I am not really concerned about it, and now see it as a possible increase in business. No matter if we do move to the gold standard, the home refiner even should still be needed. Last time I looked into it, about 20-25 percent of all precious metals used in manufacturing came from recycled sources. No matter what happens, people who do what we do will be needed to continue that supply chain, and the amount of recycled precious metals will only increase over time.
Also, think about this. People will collect electronics, and trade them as commodities the way Ceramic CPUs are right now. Instead of hoarding actual gold in solid form, people will just collect electronics and guess what, those of us who process scrap will be the only people who can purchase and recover the gold. I say we are in a very good position indeed.
So no matter what, I believe the extraction from existing sources of gold scrap will be accelerated as gold goes up in price as it's remonetized globally.
In the United States, we purchase every year more consumer goods than any other single country, even China, on the face of the planet. We have more electronic scrap here, than anywhere else in the entire world. Just the amount in landfills alone is mind boggling. EVEN if there is a gold rush on electronics (which I highly doubt) there is so much precious metal bearing scrap in the United States, that we will not run out of it in my lifetime, and I'm 44. I think you are not considering just how much gold is out there in a form that requires recovering and refining.
Stuff that might have normally stayed in service for say 10 years might be pulled out after only 5 years of service because the gold content it has makes it perhaps not only cost effective to do so but might even yield a profit.
Electronics already have built in obsolescence. Computing power doubles every 16 months according to Moors Law. I hate to break this to you, but computers don't last 5 years, the amount of time before they are recycled is actually much less. I was a WAN Manager in the 90s, I was turning my clients computers over every 2 years. When I left to start my own business, we were changing computers out every 18 months. But again, for us that means more computers, more electronics to process and more being created to replace the ones taken out of service. I see this as a huge giant plus, not something to fear. We will have more equipment, faster, that is made with safer materials to process. I have even read articles where the electronics manufacturers are dreaming up ways to make it easier to recover precious metals after the end of the electronics consumer life, so that people CAN sell them, recover some money, and buy newer equipment. ALL huge giant benefits to us that recover and refine.
Think about it: if a successful replacement for gold is found, the new products coming out onto the market will be even more cheaper than they would have ordinarily been through the normal curve of Moore's Law. I can only see gold going up in price for the foreseeable as this gold bull runs its course.
You didn't mention that gold is way undervalued in the market, and the prices are artificially deflated on purpose. But regardless, again, I think you fail to realize the importance of what we do here. The more gold goes up in price, the more cost effective it is to process scrap that has less gold. I live in Northern California and recently processed some material for this Japanese group who is using some new novel technology to recover gold from old mine tilings. Gold is of a value now that people are using tilings from old mine claims because it's now worth their while, gold has increased in price that much. So as the price increases, even more scrap becomes valuable to process for it's gold and precious metal content. So here again, I see this as a huge benefit rather than something negative.
So you are looking at two curves that are meeting each other where the cross spells out high profit realization from scrapping your production machines earlier than scheduled.
The amount of production loss due to changing out equipment would be more expensive than the benefit of removing the equipment for it's gold content. For example, in laboratories all over the world Platinum crucibles are used for certain processes. There are now other alternatives, however, those people who use these crucibles still use them, and are hard pressed to give up the old ones they own, even though the price of Platinum has risen in several orders of magnitude since they purchased them. Same exact thing for Rhodium crucibles. I don't think your argument about removing equipment because of it's precious metal value is valid. However, even if they did, it would benefit us because we would be the people who would most likely process this type of material. If they are pulling it to make money, who do you think they will choose? A large refiner that will most likely steal from them, or a smaller refiner who will work hard for their business and to retain it over a length of time.
I agree that we will be mining landfills for metals and have been saying this for many years now--it is sort of an obvious observation so I will refrain from patting myself on the back. But I don't agree that gold plating on electronics will continue "long into the future". The writing is on the wall to any serious gold bug: the price of gold is going to go so high that folks in the future will be aghast that we ever used it in silly things like computers.
Think about what you said, then think about what gold was, per ounce, just 10 years ago. Gold was right around $200 per ounce. If we just, for arguments sake, said gold is worth $1600 in today's market, you would be able to say that gold has doubled in worth, not once, not twice, but three times in 10 years. Now if that isn't a crazy increase I have no idea what is. Industry didn't stop using gold, they became smarter on how they applied gold. Also, and this is only my opinion, but I believe gold has been artificially deflated, meaning it's worth far less than it's actual value, for the specific purpose of not allowing it to become worth so much that it couldn't be used in consumer goods. It's a funny thing if you think about it. The people who have large amounts of gold want the prices to stay high, it allows them to leverage banking instruments against their gold supply and also allows them to be dynamic in the market place. So they do not want gold to go down in value. This means, for this to happen, that gold needs to be used at ever increasing amounts. And governments need to support this behavior, the consumption of gold, to retain the value in their own gold stocks, and to keep our economy going strong. But no matter what, more gold will be used every year than the year prior, and that gold will forever need people like us who are willing to recover and refine it so that it can be used again and again and again. The more gold that is used, the more gold needs to be refined, it's really a no-brainer.
I don't disagree that some new development would leave us gold scrappers on the whole unchanged in the day to day yields we see from our respective operations. But the trend I see is more and more people with the savvy for it turning towards precious metals recovery from electronics. There's still a lot of room for growth and consolidation out there, and all it takes is one or two or three big conglomerates to come in and buy out a few large processors and maybe some medium-sized ones, put a lock on all the prime or otherwise sources of electronic scrap in a given region by being the BSD with lots of money to throw around, and the little guys will be forced to compete for the scraps.
We only process, currently, about %17 of e-waste in this country. That's not talking about i-waste at all which might be a little higher but still. Imagine. We have over %80 of all the possible recyclable goods in this country yet to recycle? There is no other industry in the United States that has that kind of growth potential. I know, I have looked into it, this is a major point in my business plan I have been working on. This is a growth industry, and with statistics like that, I don't see how your point could even be considered to be valid. Again, not to be offensive that is not my intent, but I think you are supporting your original argument without really truly looking at the facts. If you remove emotion, and your attachment to your argument, and look at things logically, I think you might see things differently. I know that sounds really harsh, but I cannot think of any other way to say it and not sound offensive. I almost didn't say it, but I believe that you will understand what I mean, and if you are as intelligent as you seem to be, will see that I did not mean that to offend you, but rather to help you see things from a different perspective.
Yes, those with the mettle will carry on. But I guarantee you this is the beginning of a transition, and those who make up their mind early what they want to do and plan accordingly will be the success stories.
Out of everything you have said, I like this and agree with this statement the most
those who make up their mind early what they want to do and plan accordingly will be the success stories.
a more true statement could not be made by anyone.
I read over and over what I write, and I change things so that it doesn't sound like I am bashing and flaming. I hope I succeeded in that. I know this is the third time I have stated this, but I hope that what I have said does not offend anyone. That is not my intention. If anyone would like links to figures or numbers or anything I stated as fact, I would be happy to provide that information, or you can google it yourself and perhaps catch a mistake I have made. I believe, with deep conviction what I have stated in this thread, but I because this is my personal belief and my own opinion I also realize that I could be very wrong about some of the points I have made. To that end, if you feel differently, please be just as honest and harsh as I have been, I would welcome it because in the end, we all will have a far better understanding of the future dynamics of precious metal refining.
Scott