market tanking, metals remaining a little stable
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Yeah, I'm not following you in to a political discussion and frankly you should know better.
My comment was sarcastic. Bullion dealers have been talking up silver/gold for as long as I've been buying from them. Everyone has been waiting for the fiat house of cards to collapse, doesn't matter who the administration in charge is at any given time. When I first started buying, my dealer at the time wouldn't even take credit cards, as they were fake money.
The expectation that anyone can predict where the markets are going to go is foolish.
My comment was sarcastic. Bullion dealers have been talking up silver/gold for as long as I've been buying from them. Everyone has been waiting for the fiat house of cards to collapse, doesn't matter who the administration in charge is at any given time. When I first started buying, my dealer at the time wouldn't even take credit cards, as they were fake money.
The expectation that anyone can predict where the markets are going to go is foolish.
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Very very interesting times. If you study 25 years of metals prices, 25 years of US$ index and 25 years of fed funds rate, you should see a pattern.
I believe debt is the key. Federal debt of 32 trillion, untold consumer debt and endless entitlements, it’s a royal mess. US can’t finance its debt at more than 5%.
Inflation is here to stay. They decided to inflate out of debt, not default.
I believe debt is the key. Federal debt of 32 trillion, untold consumer debt and endless entitlements, it’s a royal mess. US can’t finance its debt at more than 5%.
Inflation is here to stay. They decided to inflate out of debt, not default.
kurtak
Well-known member
Per the bold print - first off - in discussing politics - in general (CRT, gender BS, abortion, voter fraud, J6ers, MAGA etc. etc. etc.) I agree - the gold refining forum is not the place for that kind of political discussion - there are other places for that kind of discussion & I am actually quite active on some such forums
However - as refiners/investors of PMs - PMs are a part of our economic reality/wellbeing - therefore - economics plays a direct role in our PM interests - AND - like it - or not - that part of politics plays a direct role on our economics which in turn plays a direct role in the PM commodities we discuss on this forum everyday
Therefore - IMO - not only should this part (political) that concerns economics be part of the discission - but in fact needs to be part of the discussion
Why ? --- because the politics that influence the economy has a direct influence on the value of my PMs which in turn has a direct influence on how much that value will buy for me --- it makes a difference in my deciding to buy - sell - or just hold
Thats just not true - EVERY administration has an influence on the economy & therefore an influence on the value of our PMs (what the value of those PMs will - or wont buy)
And I can prove my point ----
Under Trump - both my wage & my gold value was lower - BUT - I in fact could buy more with that lower wage & gold value - this has nothing to do with whether I like or hate Trump - it is just an economic FACT under the Trump admin.
Currently - under Biden - both my wage is higher & my gold value is higher - BUT - in FACT nether of those things will buy what I could buy when Trump was in office - & again it has nothing to do with whether I like or hate Biden - it is just an economic FACT under the Biden admin.
Two different political/economic views/policies - both having a different but direct impact on my economic wellbeing
So - IMO - all other politics aside - this part of politics has a direct impact on my vested interest in PMs
So I must ask - why should this part of politics not be discussed here on the forum - when in FACT it has a direct tie to the PMs we refine &/or invest in ??????
I am just being real here - when with a higher wage - my dollars is buying less & at the same time the value of my gold & silver is buying less --- & it is happening under the current Biden Admin. economic/political policies
I am sorry but if this is what is meant by "Build Back Better" --- then I can't wait to see how much better it's going to get (sarcasm intended) --- it's headed for going broke & deeper in debt
And I should like it & be told to keep my mouth shut ?!?!?!
Edit to add; - in other words - the discussion isn't actually about politics - it's about economics - politics just happen to a part of those economics - the discussion isn't complete/whole unless all the parts are in the discussion
Kurt
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But it should be possible to not overplay the role of politics, in other words, discuss economics of PMs and point to the impact of politics without pushing the equilibrium all the way to the political side?
True???
True???
But Kurt, is Biden so powerful and influential that his policies caused prices of gasoline and food and so many other commodities to skyrocket all over the world. I think not. I think maybe a little conflict in Ukraine, coming after a world shut down by covid, has a lot to do with it. And that isn't (IMHO) Bidens doing.
Maybe it doesn't, providing we can keep it civilized and have a conversation based on documented facts, with minimal emotion. As it does pertain to precious metals and may influence our own precious metal investment strategies. I will openly admit my buying and selling of my precious metals has always been more luck than strategy.
So unless I get a knock on the door and another moderator wants to beat me over the head with my laptop, I think this thread, as Kurt would say "as per the bold print" would be a place for a discussion, among friends, all bound by a common interest as long as it remains civil. Otherwise any of the moderators always has the power of deletion. As Harold used to say, this forum isn't a Democracy, it's a privilege.
Ok, so it's game.
So when we talk inflation, we have to talk about what led to inflation.
There was 5 Trillion dollars spent by the federal government to keep the economy afloat. That's 1/6 of the federal debt spent in a one year period. If you kept working during Covid you got what? $4,000 in stimulus? But your portion of the federal debt went up by about $40,000 for that $4,000 stimulus to even out the stimulus given to unemployment, corporate handouts, medical relief, etc etc etc.
The Fed pumped money into the equities market through bond buying. The GDP in 2020 went down for obvious reasons, then went up in 2021 by 10%, however the S&P 500 went from 2237 during covid and then peaked at 4793. Very little of that growth was actually related to sales. Apple went from a $50 stock (corrected for the split) to now, ~$150. However, while sales went up, the price to sales ratio went up as well. So it's not that Apple is making that much more money, it's value is just inflated more. The same can be said for a majority of the equities market.
Biden is an idiot, but he didn't spend any of that. He inherited the debt. If you want to blame a president for inflation, blame the guy sitting in the office when the checks were written
So does it suck that your $18 an hour doesn't go as far? Hell yes it does. Is it Biden's fault? How? What exactly was he supposed to do, coming in to office, following the largest government spending in history?
I guess that when you are an investor in precious metals, you need to realize that it shouldn't be the be all end all of your portfolio. Investing in precious metals (or any commodity) is defined as a speculative investment.
So of course the bullion dealers are going to be bullish on PM's and bearish on fiat, do you go to a car dealership to get sold a horse and buggy? Same as your gun shop sells you rhetorical fear and the need to protect yourself.
So when we talk inflation, we have to talk about what led to inflation.
There was 5 Trillion dollars spent by the federal government to keep the economy afloat. That's 1/6 of the federal debt spent in a one year period. If you kept working during Covid you got what? $4,000 in stimulus? But your portion of the federal debt went up by about $40,000 for that $4,000 stimulus to even out the stimulus given to unemployment, corporate handouts, medical relief, etc etc etc.
The Fed pumped money into the equities market through bond buying. The GDP in 2020 went down for obvious reasons, then went up in 2021 by 10%, however the S&P 500 went from 2237 during covid and then peaked at 4793. Very little of that growth was actually related to sales. Apple went from a $50 stock (corrected for the split) to now, ~$150. However, while sales went up, the price to sales ratio went up as well. So it's not that Apple is making that much more money, it's value is just inflated more. The same can be said for a majority of the equities market.
Biden is an idiot, but he didn't spend any of that. He inherited the debt. If you want to blame a president for inflation, blame the guy sitting in the office when the checks were written
So does it suck that your $18 an hour doesn't go as far? Hell yes it does. Is it Biden's fault? How? What exactly was he supposed to do, coming in to office, following the largest government spending in history?
I guess that when you are an investor in precious metals, you need to realize that it shouldn't be the be all end all of your portfolio. Investing in precious metals (or any commodity) is defined as a speculative investment.
So of course the bullion dealers are going to be bullish on PM's and bearish on fiat, do you go to a car dealership to get sold a horse and buggy? Same as your gun shop sells you rhetorical fear and the need to protect yourself.
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They hit the inflation switch with covid funds. Throw 3 trillion dollars at a limited amount of any goods, and it will lead to inflation. That’s not politics, it’s what happened. More like 9 trillion globally of course.
32,000,000,000,000.
It was 4.5 trillion 20 years ago
32,000,000,000,000.
It was 4.5 trillion 20 years ago
Ohiogoldfever
Well-known member
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I have been investing with my own gold for some time now. Gold I've accumulated over a lifetime of working with the shiny yellow metal. I was advised by a bean counter friend that sitting on precious metals is no way to grow it in value. I had a number of gold bars gathering dust in a safe deposit box at the time and he told me to pay attention to Kitco, read the news and watch the price fluctuations. So I tried it, I tracked it on a spreadsheet just marking when and how much I'd sell or buy but never doing it, just to learn for a year, then I started slowly doing it with metal. When gold was high and talk and economic indicators said it was overvalued, I sold. Then when it dropped to a point where those same indicators said it was at the bottom, I used the cash I got selling and bought the metal back. Always physical metal. You can open up an account with larger coin dealers who buy recognized metal bars for about $1 under and sell them for about $16 over. Even with their fees it works.
I slowly realized that that shiny yellow metal likes to make $100+ swings in a short few months time and riding that swing, buying low and selling high has made me an average of 12% annually on the gold. And I slowly started to commit more gold to the process. Sitting in a vault doesn't grow the gold much if you never sell. And in my mind selling at a high point (which admittedly I have to guess about when that is) and re-buying at a low point (again where I guess it's at bottom) has worked for me. And I never nail it, I sell and it goes up even higher but it always goes at least $100 below what I sold for and I also rarely hit the bottom before I re-buy either. And I get all of my gold trading news off Kitco for free. I'm sure those Kitco talking heads figure politics into it, so I don't have to. And not having to add the stresses of American political values into my investment strategy is something I don't miss.
So in my mind, as much as politics and national debt plays into metal pricing, I have to look out for the value of what I physically control, and not sit up at night sweating about things I cannot control. Not that I don't get worked up over politics, but I like to keep it on a level of informed discussion and I always exert my exceptionally small influence with my one vote. That's all I can do.
I slowly realized that that shiny yellow metal likes to make $100+ swings in a short few months time and riding that swing, buying low and selling high has made me an average of 12% annually on the gold. And I slowly started to commit more gold to the process. Sitting in a vault doesn't grow the gold much if you never sell. And in my mind selling at a high point (which admittedly I have to guess about when that is) and re-buying at a low point (again where I guess it's at bottom) has worked for me. And I never nail it, I sell and it goes up even higher but it always goes at least $100 below what I sold for and I also rarely hit the bottom before I re-buy either. And I get all of my gold trading news off Kitco for free. I'm sure those Kitco talking heads figure politics into it, so I don't have to. And not having to add the stresses of American political values into my investment strategy is something I don't miss.
So in my mind, as much as politics and national debt plays into metal pricing, I have to look out for the value of what I physically control, and not sit up at night sweating about things I cannot control. Not that I don't get worked up over politics, but I like to keep it on a level of informed discussion and I always exert my exceptionally small influence with my one vote. That's all I can do.
mostly because they are manipulated - like every market on the planet
Even the manipulators of the gold market want to make profits from the manipulations. I essentially follow their lead.
I will say that is the way how modern US economy and finance evolved. If you can release more and more money in fraction of the time into limited real comodity market, you will slowly enter inflation spiral and no one ever believed that these national debts will ever be paid.
Some handful of the elite folks once decided that we can print very questionably value-backed dollars to fulfill our intentions - and with US as geopolitical superpower, it works to this day, with some disturbances. But it work for them well...
I was also watching PM market for a while, trying to take advantage of it. I once had childish perception that PM will be rising in value with rising doubts about inflated money value. But if same people control also PM market, I does not see these "doomsday" scenarios, where gold miraculously shoot to 3000+USD/ozt and we will start carrying gold and silver bars to the grocery stores. Many people feel that bubble cannot be inflated infinitely, but I am afraid it could be (if you can enforce your will with power). At least in coming years, I do not expect anything major to be happening with the system how money works now. And as I posses some small quantity of "investment" metals, I would be very happy for this steep climb of their value. But I stay rational and count every possibility.
2008 hit more US than EU, now this switched sides... We have claimed 15% inflation here (maybe little lower now), and man, it can be felt really heavily. Real number feels like 20+%.
To put this into context, I as researcher and PhD. student earn 970euros a month. In our country this is somewhat higher than average salary. Apart of why and how our salaries rise, bitter truth is my salary risen only 25euros/month from last year. Gasoline is now 1,70eur/L, diesel 1,90/L, middle-classed restaurant dinner with beer is around 15-20 euros, loaf of bread around 1,2 euros, liter of milk ca 1euro. 1-room flat in the city, 30m2 = 110 000euros. And that rib-eye in middle class restaurant around 25-30euros.Was it better in terms value for money few years ago ? Certainly yes. With this I can relate to your opinion.
We have arranged wedding in upcoming months, you want to somewhat think about future, secure your life as you are slowly turning 30, think about family, kids... But you can try as hard as you possibly can, you struggle to find any possibility to secure your life.
For taking a mortgage here, you need to have 20% of the value upfront in your savings here. Which represents around 30-40k, if you want some livable flat. I am physically unable to save this ammount of money. With 9 years of college education based work.
I do refining also as side-paying hobby, but I do not see the results I would like to. You cannot save that earned money as it become worthless in very short time, no standard financial product can even level that inflation, and precious metals are no more certainty in terms of stable value. Long story short, enough crying
I should also more elaborate on this. Unless I won´t have supercomputer located 100 m on the cable from Wall Street, no possibility to compete with fast-traders
What I do certainly isn’t fast trading, which is why I miss the highs and lows. The price has to move about $18 for me to break even. ( probably because I only work in physical metal) I will not re-buy without a $100 swing so no supercomputer high stress fast trading going on here. Maybe 3 buy sell cycles a year.I should also more elaborate on this. Unless I won´t have supercomputer located 100 m on the cable from Wall Street, no possibility to compete with fast-traders
no they do not have to hold gold. that would only apply if the currency had a gold backing - it doesnt. fiat currency is created out of thin air; it is based on nothing except debt. also the govt did ban gold ownership but that was in 1933. the gold standard was removed in 1971.
The hardest part of what you do is understanding that even when it's "high", it could go higher, and when it's "low", it very well could go lower. I buy and sell GLD and SLV ETF's since they are essentially the same thing without having to take physical. (fact is, if we deteriorate to the point where I need physical, you don't want bars, you want simple jewelry, wedding bands and engagement rings...bars gets you followed home and murdered...wedding bands you are just some poor sucker, as long as you don't use the same buyer twice)
Right now is where I get concerned on the buy, as support is 1685/75. Next good support is 1550. That's a big hit if you misjudge the buy.
Markets in both metals and currencies are manipulated. We can argue for decades about the particulars, but I think it is sufficient to say that anyone who buys or sells will try to get the best deal they can. Some is done openly and honestly. Some is not.
I think the best course of action is to get out of debt. Credit cards, car payments, home mortgages can all be useful to a point, but should be put in the rear view mirror as soon as possible. By putting debt behind, one can focus energy and effort into building wealth.
My wife and I recently relocated to central Texas, less than an hour away from most of the grandchildren, and half a continent closer to the others. We have no mortgage, no car payments, and I have no credit cards.
Debt free is a good thing. It allows us to focus on other things. Yes, there are things we would like to have, and things we would like to do. By putting away that which we used to put toward debt, all those things are achievable.
If most people and their governments would adopt the same attitude, there would be fewer problems. That includes market manipulation and inflation.
Time for more coffee.
I think the best course of action is to get out of debt. Credit cards, car payments, home mortgages can all be useful to a point, but should be put in the rear view mirror as soon as possible. By putting debt behind, one can focus energy and effort into building wealth.
My wife and I recently relocated to central Texas, less than an hour away from most of the grandchildren, and half a continent closer to the others. We have no mortgage, no car payments, and I have no credit cards.
Debt free is a good thing. It allows us to focus on other things. Yes, there are things we would like to have, and things we would like to do. By putting away that which we used to put toward debt, all those things are achievable.
If most people and their governments would adopt the same attitude, there would be fewer problems. That includes market manipulation and inflation.
Time for more coffee.
kurtak
Well-known member
VERY interesting reading this morning - enjoying the thoughts/opinions expressed
That said - I am in no shape to post much of anything today as a result of self inflicted brain damage last night
I am a member of the Whiskey Gulch Gang here where I live - we had a sort of an Octoberfest celebration last night
Here is a bit about the Whiskey Gulch Gang (copied from something I posted March 2019) -------
The other interesting thing in my life since moving here is that I have also joined a gang - yes thats right - I am now a gang member
I joined The Whiskey Gulch Gang as a life member
The Whiskey Gulch Gang is kind of like a "local" Lions Club or Elks Lodge kind of thing
The Gang was started as a community improvement group/club for the town of Canyon City (which though is a town of it's own is really part of John Day) & it is based on gold being discovered on Canyon Creek in 1862 which resulted in the town of Canyon City (2 miles up the creek from John Day)
We have two main events (& get involved in other small local events) --- one is "62 Days" which is a celebration of the discovery of gold in 1862 so we have a parade & then we (the members) get dressed up in 1862 period dress & stage a good guys bad guys (the bad guys being claim jumpers) shoot out with the bad guys being arrested & hung by the neck till dead - also do a swap meet & a band - its a 2 day event --- the other main event we put on is a demolition derby which fills the stands at the fair grounds for a day of smash & crash
One of the small events we do is any time we have a home football game at the high school we take the Whiskey Gulch canon to the games & when the home team scores we shoot the canon off --- the canon gets shot off at other local events as well
Kurt
That said - I am in no shape to post much of anything today as a result of self inflicted brain damage last night
I am a member of the Whiskey Gulch Gang here where I live - we had a sort of an Octoberfest celebration last night
Here is a bit about the Whiskey Gulch Gang (copied from something I posted March 2019) -------
The other interesting thing in my life since moving here is that I have also joined a gang - yes thats right - I am now a gang member
I joined The Whiskey Gulch Gang as a life member
The Whiskey Gulch Gang is kind of like a "local" Lions Club or Elks Lodge kind of thing
The Gang was started as a community improvement group/club for the town of Canyon City (which though is a town of it's own is really part of John Day) & it is based on gold being discovered on Canyon Creek in 1862 which resulted in the town of Canyon City (2 miles up the creek from John Day)
We have two main events (& get involved in other small local events) --- one is "62 Days" which is a celebration of the discovery of gold in 1862 so we have a parade & then we (the members) get dressed up in 1862 period dress & stage a good guys bad guys (the bad guys being claim jumpers) shoot out with the bad guys being arrested & hung by the neck till dead - also do a swap meet & a band - its a 2 day event --- the other main event we put on is a demolition derby which fills the stands at the fair grounds for a day of smash & crash
One of the small events we do is any time we have a home football game at the high school we take the Whiskey Gulch canon to the games & when the home team scores we shoot the canon off --- the canon gets shot off at other local events as well
Kurt
kurtak
Well-known member
Dam - wanted to add a couple of videos of last nights event (about one minute each) but it keeps telling me they are to larger to attach
