# PM value down turn



## kurt (Dec 29, 2011)

Any thoughts on why the values of PMs have taken a recent down turn - how low will they go - how long before they turn upward again ???

I sure am glad most of the stuff I get my PMs from I pay little or nothing for.

I would think some of the people that buy karat & 925 at 70% - 80% of spot are biting their lower lip right now if they bought much at the high point & sat on it thinking it was going even higher

Kurt


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## niteliteone (Dec 29, 2011)

Just the calm before the storm :twisted: 

Hang on to whatever PM's you have for now and keep buying whatever you can afford. Be price wise of course. Process and save for the rainy day that will be here very soon. :evil: 

Hope all is well.
Tom C.


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## glondor (Dec 29, 2011)

Any analyst here who can figure out where a base is for gold and silver? I read a bit about silver that says there is a very solid base at $24 but I have not followed up on it. There is a huge base of people who bought below $24 so it may be so. Profit taking on silver and bank manipulations may keep it south for a while. I would hazard a guess silver cannot stay down too long if the shortages of real metal exist as claimed. Still billions of ounces of paper metal can certainly choke any movement of the real commodity. Remember in 2011 10 billion dollars worth of silver traded in 1 minute a few months ago. knocked the price back a couple of dollars dollars an ounce just like that. 250 million ounces.....1/4 of the worlds "supply"(paper) traded in 1 minute. (google the story and look at the chart if you like) The good news is the giant sale had so little effect. Very bullish for the silver market. If it goes much lower we may see the shorts take the chance to get out and deliver. 

The story goes that with leverage and paper goods the real value of gold is 100 times spot as it is leveraged 100 to 1 and silver value is 50 to 100 times spot as it is leveraged 50 to 100 to 1. $160 000 per oz gold, $1300 to $2600 oz for silver. 8) 8) 8) 

Keep in mind. There is more gold and silver paper in the market than the real metal exists on the planet in and out of the ground. Fake paper trades move markets. hold metal not paper. Pray people wake up and start to ask for delivery, not paper.


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## nickvc (Dec 29, 2011)

The last time that someone asked for a large delivery of physical gold was some time back and it caused a major spike in the price, from what I gather it had to be borrowed from the Bank of England and Bank of Canada and the gold returned plus a hefty fee to the banks for keeping the deal alive, I also heard they offered a hefty premium over the gold price to take cash but that it was refused.


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## element47 (Dec 29, 2011)

The stories I've heard:

The weakness of the Euro is making the dollar strong, and since PM prices are measured in USDs, this makes the apparent POG fall. 

Greece and Libya central banks have dumped about 250 tons of gold on the market. 

The MF Global fiasco has removed lots of long speculators from the market, and the PM markets have been dominated by commercial shorts for at least 20 years. Some say more like 40 years. 

Profit taking (they've had roughly a ten year run) 

And finally, to really, really piss me off. 

I think gold could fall to the 1300's. Silver, perhaps $22. and the high teens cannot be ruled out. The gold chart has been very, very orderly over the past decade. Silver, I try to remind people, spent 1/3rd of 2008 UNDER $10. It was only in 2009 that silver really decisively busted over $10. These are elevated levels for silver. In silver's past, price climbs took very, very long periods of time. During the 2000's, it usually took over a year to move from $6 to $7, $7 to $8, from $8 to $9. Of course, those "one dollar" moves were much larger percentages than they are now. I think I remember the move from about $11 to $13 took nearly two years. 

Incidentally, I may be smart enough to cite the above reasons, but I am not smart enough to have sold much physical PM near the tops. Fortunately I have not bought much silver at or over $35 and most of what I own I own well under $15.


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## ctgresale (Dec 29, 2011)

From what I see from the technical side of the markets chart, Gold first test will be 1488, but if that doesn't hold then 1235.00 could be in the cards. As for Silver, 24 should be the #. If 24 does not hold then 18.5 is where next level of support you should look for. All these levels are taken off the weekly chart

Thanks
Steve


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## gold4mike (Dec 29, 2011)

The fundamental drivers that brought us to the recent highs are still there - currency debasement, debt spiral, etc. 

Eric Sprott is trying to buy $1.6 Billion worth of silver for his physical silver fund PSLV. He can't find it because there is a shortage of physical silver.

China is buying huge amounts of gold because it's now "on sale".

I'm taking this opportunity to buy as much silver as I can.


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## Anonymous (Dec 29, 2011)

Did anyone take into consideration we (U.S.) are pulling our troops back home?


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## jimdoc (Dec 29, 2011)

I consider gold, silver, platinum, palladium and even rhodium are all on sale. 
The drops will not last for long especially with silver. Lately it has had magical drops on holiday or off trading times, and bounced right back up after the sale. When their tricks stop working I think you will be far better off holding the silver than the green. The PGM's may take a while to recover, but to have them cheaper than gold is rare (other than palladium). But palladium should have its day soon also.

Jim


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## samuel-a (Dec 29, 2011)

I don't know Jim...
Seems like gold prices, on the technical view are showing sings of weakness...

I have added a daily chart, where a raising support is clearly visible, you can see that for the first time in 3 years, the prices crossed it downward, tried to recover and bumped its head... at the moment the rasinig support line became a rasing resistance line.

Since the upward trend was very consistent in the past 3 years, it's very hard to detect a reliable horizontal support line. Also, one must remember that for every action, there must be a re-action at some point.... meaning, a deep correction down.
So i go to Fibonacci numbers tool ( 38.2, 50, 61.8 ) which point that the correction should encounter support around these levels: *1453$* (38.2), *1328$* (50) and *1210$* (61.8 ).

For me, the final stamp of approval, that we are indeed in a down trend will be the MA 50 (blue line) crossing downward the MA 200 (red line), which never happend in the past 3 years.




*I might be completly off here and more variables are needed to be taken into account such a the silver trends, dollar index, open shorts etc...
So please, no body base his investment decisions on my cranky tech' analysis.*


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## ctgresale (Dec 29, 2011)

good point Sam on the 200MA ( daily moving average ), this average is use by traders to determine bull or bear markets. Last time that silver even touched the 200ma was 10-19-2008, gold was 7-12-2009. Another thing that you have to consider with these markets is that not all of these moves are supply and demand, allot and I mean allot of these markets are run buy computer programs that only trade off the technical values of where the price of something is on a chart. These programs cause bigger swings in the market, that why big money traders wait for strong technicals before they enter the market, gives them a easier time telling when they are wrong. For Gold to go to 1230 would not surprise me at all and 18.75 on silver, that my prediction. True evidence of this can be in the last couple of years in the oil market, remember $150 oil, then went all the way down to $30 again before it bounced back to $100. Those prices have nothing to do with supply and demand.

Thanks
Steve


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## Smack (Dec 29, 2011)

I think these people got carried away. You might not be able to see it but it's at $131.00 right now. It's a .999 pure Silver bar with a 55' T bird on it. Think I'll have a custom graphite mold made.

http://auction.repocast.com/details.cfm?ID=722188

Update, it's at 136.01 now with 10 min. left.

It ended at $141.01 that's crazy.


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## nickvc (Dec 30, 2011)

It could just be the silly season with most of the traders and investors on their holidays, it seems to be bouncing back up again but in truth who knows where it will actually go. If I knew I'd be sitting on a nice sunny beach surrounded by attractive ladies sipping a beer 8) 
Unfortunately I don't hence I'm freezing my nuts off in the cold and damp winter weather here in the Uk


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## patnor1011 (Dec 31, 2011)

I do not take recent price change into consideration... I mean I do not trade or buy/sell daily. I take gold or silver as long term investment and I am talking about years, maybe even decades. What I am fairly sure is that my ounce of gold or silver will have at least pretty much the same buying power as it has now. Or (much) higher.


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## its-all-a-lie (Dec 31, 2011)

first off i want to say hello to all the members, i have been reading here for a couple of months under a friends name (Gold) and have really enjoyed all the info i have been given access to for free. there are alot of very intelligent people here and i look forward to the day i can do what you all do in terms of refining and also teaching others. now to the goods. i personally feel silver is the best metal to hold simply because of its low price per ounce. this makes it easier for people like me to acquire a few ounces per week. i hold physical gold and silver, approx. 80/20 silver to gold ratio. for me it is more of a savings plan because i am reckless with my money. it may not have gained value when i get ready to sell but it WILL have some value, and if it gains thats a plus for me. sad part is i bought most of my silver between 35 and 43  but it was better spent that way than out the exhaust pipes on my suburban.


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## samuel-a (Dec 31, 2011)

its-all-a-lie said:


> first off i want to say hello to all the members, i have been reading here for a couple of months under a friends name (Gold) and have really enjoyed all the info i have been given access to for free. there are alot of very intelligent people here and i look forward to the day i can do what you all do in terms of refining and also teaching others. now to the goods. i personally feel silver is the best metal to hold simply because of its low price per ounce. this makes it easier for people like me to acquire a few ounces per week. i hold physical gold and silver, approx. 80/20 silver to gold ratio. for me it is more of a savings plan because i am reckless with my money. it may not have gained value when i get ready to sell but it WILL have some value, and if it gains thats a plus for me. sad part is i bought most of my silver between 35 and 43  but it was better spent that way than out the exhaust pipes on my suburban.




I too, hold almost all of my silver metal. Since i buy it as scrap sterling or get it for free from gold jewellry/scrap electronics, my avarage buy price is bit less then 14$ per once of pure silver (not including time and chemicals).
I have several Kilos worth... both in refined and un-refined state.

I can't even imagine how happy would i be if silver will shoot sky high.... Even if it takes 30 years...


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## micronationcreation (Jan 8, 2012)

Article that speculates why the recent drop has occurred:

http://www.businessinsider.com/why-has-gold-been-down-2012-1


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## its-all-a-lie (Oct 27, 2012)

Smack said:


> I think these people got carried away. You might not be able to see it but it's at $131.00 right now. It's a .999 pure Silver bar with a 55' T bird on it. Think I'll have a custom graphite mold made.
> 
> http://auction.repocast.com/details.cfm?ID=722188
> 
> ...




Where can i have a graphite mold made to my specs?


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## Smack (Oct 27, 2012)

Check with these guys
http://stores.ebay.com/Saturn-Industries?_trksid=p2047675.l2563


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## its-all-a-lie (Oct 27, 2012)

Smack said:


> Check with these guys
> http://stores.ebay.com/Saturn-Industries?_trksid=p2047675.l2563



Thanks, i have bought a couple molds from them in the past but never thought about a custom mold.


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