# Metals Recovering?



## FrugalRefiner (Oct 15, 2015)

Platinum back over $1k/ozt, gold @ 1,183, silver over $16. We haven't been here for awhile.

What do you think? Have we seen the lows, or is this just a dead cat bounce?

Please, NO political rhetoric, no links to pundits' opinions, etc. Just your own thoughts. We have a lot of very educated members here, from all over the world, with a wide range of experiences and situations. What do we, as members of the GRF, think?

Dave


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## Barren Realms 007 (Oct 15, 2015)

We can guess, make suggestions and read charts all day long but in the end there is one truth to be told. There will be manipulation across the board in everything.


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## Geo (Oct 15, 2015)

Watch other scrap metal prices. Gold is much more fluid and can rise or fall by hundreds of dollars in a days time but other more stable markets such as copper and non-ferrous metals may take days, weeks or months to move a couple of dollars. Scrap metal is still on the decline. Gold will surely move faster than any other market but when you see the other base metals moving up, it's a pretty sure bet gold will not fall by much.


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## Grelko (Oct 16, 2015)

FrugalRefiner said:


> Platinum back over $1k/ozt, gold @ 1,183, silver over $16. We haven't been here for awhile.
> 
> What do you think? Have we seen the lows, or is this just a dead cat bounce?
> 
> ...



My own thoughts.

I was thinking about posting something like this, since I noticed that silver jumped up almost $2 over the last few weeks. "Too bad I didn't get a chance to buy any before it went up"

Just don't ask me about gas prices, the dollar, or especially the stock market.

Scrap metal prices will keep going down until the new year, then go back up a good bit by June. (Not many people want to work out in the cold, putting up buildings etc.)

I'll say that Silver will get close to $17.50, then drop to $12 by May. Gold will go up another $50 or so, then drop by almost $200 in early Feburary. Platinum will go up to around $1,082, then drop to $960 late January. Palladium will keep going down until $617, then stabilize until March, then it'll go back up to $850. Rhodium will drop another $35, then in mid December, it'll jump close to $900.

You'd expect precious metals to go up close to holidays, because of people buying gifts "jewelry etc.", but doesn't seem to be the case. It seems to jump a couple months before that.

By the off chance, if anyone uses my "guess" at prices and loses a bunch of money, don't blame me. On the other hand, if I happen to be right and you make alot of money, you're welcome. Just don't forget about me when you're famous. :mrgreen:


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## jason_recliner (Oct 16, 2015)

Grelko said:


> I'll say that Silver will get close to $17.50, then drop to $12 by May. Gold will go up another $50 or so, then drop by almost $200 in early Feburary. Platinum will go up to around $1,082, then drop to $960 late January. Palladium will keep going down until $617, then stabilize until March, then it'll go back up to $850. Rhodium will drop another $35, then in mid December, it'll jump close to $900.


Please share with us how you attained the figures and timeframes you presented. On what predictions are they based?


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## Barren Realms 007 (Oct 16, 2015)

jason_recliner said:


> Grelko said:
> 
> 
> > I'll say that Silver will get close to $17.50, then drop to $12 by May. Gold will go up another $50 or so, then drop by almost $200 in early Ferburary. Platinum will go up to around $1,082, then drop to $960 late January. Palladium will keep going down until $617, then stabilize until March, then it'll go back up to $850. Rhodium will drop another $35, then in mid December, it'll jump close to $900.
> ...



Following chart patterns, Import/export data, unemployment data, future interest rates, demand of the metals, world stock market movements, mining production.

It all comes into play and knowing how to interpet the information.


There was an artical I read the other day that stated that this is the first time that anyone could remember that consumers ordering silver coins were having to wait 4-6 weeks for orders to be shipped to them from the mints because basicly all of the mints were short on silver rounds and having a problem meeting the demand of the orders.


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## Grelko (Oct 16, 2015)

jason_recliner said:


> Please share with us how you attained the figures and timeframes you presented. On what predictions are they based?



Just my own thoughts. I've been watching the numbers over the last year or so, ever since I started getting into scrap metal again. There looks to be a small pattern to them, but it seems to be backwards . It's a completely random guess on how they've been going up/down around the holidays, different seasons etc.

Think about it like this. Would you want to go out in the snow for hours and build an office tower? The price of steel should slowly go down around the middle of summer because afterwards, it'll be getting colder, and then back up right before spring until about June or so, when the most people would be outside working on things. Holidays are when people seem to buy more jewelry, so the few months leading up to them, precious metal prices should go up, so the big buisnesses get that bit extra. 

Just like I noticed, when Father's day gets closer, alot of people seem to buy barbecues and tools, because I got quite a few of them as scrap, within 3 months of it. I didn't see many over the summer, but since it's almost winter again, more people are slowly getting rid of their "new" old ones, since almost no one grills in the snow. (Basically I've just explained a crude form of supply and demand)

This however wouldn't include the super rich people that can manipulate the market simply by, buying ALOT of a certain material to raise prices, or flood the market to drop certain prices whenever they want.

Reminds me of back around 6th grade, when the teacher had us pick a couple stocks out of the newspaper, for fun as a class project. The ones that I chose, ended up making a almost 5 grand over the 2 weeks 8) Also, theres a videogame for NES called Wall Street Kid, that I've played frequently since 1990 or so, plus watched/read about the market for years, but I've been lazy, and don't have the money for it, or I'd go buy a few. (This is why I tell people not to ask me about stocks, whenever I get into a conversation like this, because I can type out a book. :lol: )


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## jason_recliner (Oct 16, 2015)

But you have laid out very specific values and dates. How did you arrive at them?


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## martyn111 (Oct 16, 2015)

jason_recliner said:


> But you have laid out very specific values and dates. How did you arrive at them?



Jason, with respect, the guy is giving you his own personnel opinion, he isn't trying to sell you any metals and make any promises to you that this is the way the metal prices will go over the next few months. I can make you an absolute promise if you want. gold will hit $2000 / troy oz or it will go dark before midnight, one of them will come true unless you are at the south pole at this time of year.


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## patnor1011 (Oct 16, 2015)

I do not have prediction or expectation. PM markets are not markets at all. Prices does not reflect reality or real market for that purpose.


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## martyn111 (Oct 16, 2015)

Is there a clue in the name they give to the price given each trading day?
The price 'fix' !


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## Grelko (Oct 16, 2015)

jason_recliner said:


> But you have laid out very specific values and dates. How did you arrive at them?



I don't know. It was like picking lottery numbers based on how I've seen the metal prices fluctuating through the year. Basically a random, but partially educated guess I suppose? Then I just put in some dates to go with them. I figured those numbers would sound good because of the time of year that some of them "should" go up or down. 

(It would have been more fun, if I would have just said something like... Out from beyond the fabric of space and time, these particaular numbers decided that they would intertwine themselves, within my brain, which caused an electrical impulse that involuntarily controlled the muscles in my hands and they typed them out by themselves while I was sleeping? :shock: :lol: )

If you happen to look at the christmas competition thread, I just said that gold would be at 1,308.76, which contradicts what I said about it going up by 50, then back down 200 by February in this thread. http://goldrefiningforum.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=60&t=22993


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## jason_recliner (Oct 16, 2015)

Understood. I was just wondering whether it was a prediction based on expected events, a blind stab in the dark, or somewhere in between. And you have answered that, thank you.


I have roughly zero knowledge in the precious metals market and the US economy. I wouldn't be able to say anything remotely sensible about PGMs or silver, and you are welcome to tell me I know nothing about gold either. These are my personal thoughts, for what they are worth. I bought some gold coins from when the Australian Mint ran some off in 1987. I know it's a stupid way to buy gold, but I was into collecting coins at the time. And I still like them. Since then they are *only* worth about triple, which is pretty poor performance for nearly 30 years.

Gold price of course depends on your currency. Yes, gold is usually measured in USD and has taken a decent old hit recently. But for 30 years the price has only gone in one direction in AUD. I'll go add my blind guess on the competition page.

People buy gold, or paper, when other investments collapse. So maybe gold was overinflated for a few years from 2008. So-called "experts" are telling us that real estate here will drop sharply next year. I don't know what magic coin they're flipping, but if they're right, there's some extra incentive to play "safe" in paper gold.

But unlike money, physical gold has an intrinsic value. Though we work out ways to use less gold in electronic devices, we demand more devices. And the world's two most populous nations are developing a new demand quickly. Coupled with the theory expressed elsewhere on this site that there's ~13 times as much gold on paper as there is physical gold, one day the world will work out they're being shafted. When that happens, either paper will be worth nothing and physical gold stay the same, or physical gold will skyrocket. Or something else, but we'll still want the corrosion free, conductive, yellow stuff.

So whenever gold drops I will try to get my hands on some. It's even better if you can dig it up for free!


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## g_axelsson (Oct 17, 2015)

jason_recliner said:


> Coupled with the theory expressed elsewhere on this site that there's ~13 times as much gold on paper as there is physical gold, one day the world will work out they're being shafted.


As long as 12 out of 13 is happy to trade paper over physical metal the system works. It's a bit like playing on horses, the winners takes money from the losers and no one needs physical delivery of a horse. The bookies (read bankers) in the middle skims a percentage off any transaction and is happy.

This is a purely simplified view on the state of gold trading and only reflects the view of a guy that's never bothered to dig deep enough into the details to actually check what he's talking about. :mrgreen: 

Göran


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## Grelko (Oct 17, 2015)

jason_recliner said:


> one day the world will work out they're being shafted. When that happens, either paper will be worth nothing and physical gold stay the same, or physical gold will skyrocket. Or something else, but we'll still want the corrosion free, conductive, yellow stuff.
> 
> So whenever gold drops I will try to get my hands on some. It's even better if you can dig it up for free!



To this day, I've never figured out why people get so involved with a shiny pieces of rock "yes I know it's metal". I'm guessing that many years ago, someone started collecting them (just like those white stones or seashells from the beach) and decided that they liked them very much. Eventually other people wanted to trade or buy a few off of that person. Now, many years later, people actually start fights over those shiny rocks...yep

Then years later, people started trying different things like, melting, grinding, mixing it with other materials etc, and found out that it had many other uses.

(Even I like those shiny rocks and I too, am very slowly trying to build a collection. So, please don't think that I am trying to make fun of, or be rude to anyone, because I'm not. I just felt like chatting online, since there's nothing that sparks my interest for the moment. :lol: So, If I happen to be annoying anyone, please let me know and I'll go back to learning.)

When it actually comes down to it, its still a shiny rock. Wouldn't it be more important to have the "knowledge", that you would need, to be able to collect or do experiments on it? By the way, gold fever has absolutely no effect on me 8) 

My thought pattern may seem a bit odd to certain individuals, but I've always wondered why we use things like trees "paper" and metal "coins" to trade for food etc. (I have a feeling that someone will try to answer this) Personally, I feel that knowledge is more important.

I am however, very glad that I started learning this hobby, it IS quite a rewarding experience. Being able to gain the knowledge on how to process certian types of materials SAFELY, and if I can make a couple $$$ along the way, then so be it


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## Geo (Oct 17, 2015)

The traders make a percentage whether the price goes up or down. Every transaction whether buying or selling, the trader gets a cut. They should make the traders selling the same gold a dozen times or more to buy all the paper gold back at a premium until the the amount of paper on the market is backed by physical gold. Ever marker was paid for by someone and whether or not they still have the money is irrelevant, the paper should be worth an X amount of money. If the government would concede that gold is money, it may help to bring some oversight to this issue. It seems like the trade commission would not let traders make markers for gold unless there is physical gold to cover it. US currency was backed by precious metal. You could take your gold or silver certificate to any bank and demand your gold or silver. If all the markers were brought in at one time, some people would just go home empty handed.


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## goodstuff573 (Nov 27, 2015)

Can someone tell me what the returning proccess is for exstracting gold silver and plat. From aqua regia? And do they need to be done in a certain order ? I know gold you use uria and for silver its copper but the thing that puzzles me is can i stick it all i.Aqua regia and then bring each out in order .


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## upcyclist (Nov 27, 2015)

goodstuff573 said:


> Can someone tell me what the returning proccess is for exstracting gold silver and plat. From aqua regia? And do they need to be done in a certain order ? I know gold you use uria and for silver its copper but the thing that puzzles me is can i stick it all i.Aqua regia and then bring each out in order .



1. This is the Miscellaneous board, you should probably direct your questions to the Processes or Learning section.
2. Before you get too far into what you're doing, know that Hoke's book addresses your question directly. Please read it. See the signature block in FrugalRefiner's first post on this thread for the links to her book.


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## Lou (Nov 27, 2015)

http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2015-11-27/Rick-Rule-Absolutely-Manic-Bull-Market-in-Gold-Coming-Soon.html


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## FrugalRefiner (Apr 19, 2016)

In the six months since I started this thread, gold dropped to about $1,050, silver dipped below $14.00, and platinum bottomed out under $820. 

As I type this, gold is $1,250.10, silver is $16.94, and platinum is $1,013.

Buy on the dips.

Dave


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## Grelko (Apr 19, 2016)

FrugalRefiner said:


> As I type this, gold is $1,250.10, silver is $16.94, and platinum is $1,013.



I swear silver is only going up because I haven't bought any lately. :lol: Literally everytime I bought any, it went down the next day.

It looks more like an up-swing, than it does a "recovery" for now, but you can never tell.


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## FrugalRefiner (Apr 19, 2016)

Grelko said:


> Literally everytime I bought any, it went down the next day.


That's when I buy more. Buy on the dips.

Dave


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## Grelko (Apr 20, 2016)

FrugalRefiner said:


> Grelko said:
> 
> 
> > Literally everytime I bought any, it went down the next day.
> ...



I try to, but it never seems to work that way for me. I've tried waiting all month a few times to buy at the lowest price. it would start going back up, so I'd buy some. The price will keep going up the rest of that day, then the next day, it goes even lower. :roll:


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## patnor1011 (Apr 21, 2016)

You are not alone. My biggest silver purchase ever was when silver was 29/oz.
Euros. :mrgreen:


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## etack (Apr 21, 2016)

come on Pd!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I would love 800+ Pd again. 8) :lol: :lol: 8) :lol: 

Eric


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