# Prepping



## patnor1011

I hope this is not going against forum rules as no religion or politics are involved yet I am looking for advice or suggestion related to coming market shocks and shortages due to current pretty much worldwide health scare. 

My take on the situation is completely pragmatic. We all know that most of the stuff nowadays is made in China and even stuff made in other countries relies heavily on material or components from there. It is known that quite a few factories stopped production in December and more joined pretty much daily since then. 
That to me looks that as of now even if by some miracle production restarted today it will take another month or two to get back to say November numbers. So common logic shows that we look at 4-6 months shortages of various stuff which will turn into a cascade of problems. 
Question is what may be important to get right now while there is still some little time to get it? 
It may be wise to stock up on some items and it may even turn on to be a good investment in a not so distant future.


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## snoman701

There won't be too much interruption with this one. 

The virus came at the same time as the Chinese New Year, so an interruption was already planned for. 

But I guess toilet paper is already sold out in some places. And soap. Because people weren't washing their hands before all this happened. 

If what I'm seeing out of independent epidemiologists is any indication, I'm not overly concerned...for myself or my immediate family. But we are all 40 and under, and mostly healthy.


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## Yggdrasil

This may or may not be another swineflu thing.
With the latest swineflu as the swineflu in the 70s the vaccine showed to be more dangerous than the disease itself.
This is another beast in many ways since it is a virus strain wich we know far less about.
For the time beeing, its less dangerous than the ordinary flu.
The question is what happens when it mutates and how it mutates, for the time beeing I think I saw some data that less people are infected than get a clean bill of health.
So maybe the epidemic is on the decline already, we can cross our fingers and hope anyway.


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## galenrog

If you are truly interested in preparing for disaster, be it personal, such as the loss of income, or anything that could disrupt the supply chain, it is prudent to have a few months supply of food, supplies, and cash.

I usually think about it in terms of personal disaster, since that is what many of us will go through. When I had a sever stroke several years ago, my wife (a medical professional) and I lost over 40% of our income, and incurred thousands of dollars in unreimbursed medical expenses. We were not as prepared as we should have been. While retirement accounts were flush, personal accounts were not, causing a great deal of debt, that we are just now looking back on. 

We did have a lot of canned goods, but even home canned tuna and chicken gets old, fast. We learned that we needed a variety of things in the pantry, not just a lot of a few things.

It is not just food. Any consumable use has to be considered. Laundry detergent, printer paper and ink, filters for the HVAC, light bulbs, and a thousand other things most of us never give a second thought to.

Firearms and ammunition. Fishing gear. We may need to gather our own food. 

Money. Having enough cash on hand for a few months of expenses is also prudent. While straps of banknotes is what go on in the minds of many, just having that much in a standard bank account is enough for most.

The idea is to be prepared in advance of the emergency, not react to in once it arrives. We are seeing tidbits of what happens in real emergencies. Costco sells out of toilet paper in Eugene, Oregon. Sams Club, and the Walmart next door sell out of soap and paper towels. Do you really want to be part of that panic mentality? Here we try to be more prudent.

Start by making a plan. Put things together, one piece at a time. When you have enough razor blades to last a year, switch to shave cream, while still buying blades to replace what you use. Toothpaste and toothbrushes next. Toilet paper and paper towels after that. And so it goes. 

Where to go to learn how to do all this? There are hundreds, if not thousands, of prepper websites. Some better than others, that we can glean information from. Thousands of books on the matter, with dozens more published every year. Some churches teach preparedness and provident living. The Mormons and Adventist’s come to mind. Asking their opinions and gleaning information from them is also good.

There are innumerable items I simply can not touch on, but I think I passed on enough for anyone to get started. How you prepare is up to you. Even a few little things can put you way ahead of the mob.

Time for more coffee.


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## snoman701

Less dangerous than the normal flu for people under the age of 60 that have no other health implications. 

Simply put, it's killing people...mostly elderly and people with other comorbidities. 

There will be widespread transmission of the virus throughout the world.

The question becomes, WHEN.

The concern isn't the death rate...it's that widespread transmission, without successful attempts at containment to SLOW the transmission, WILL overload medical capacity to a point where we simply can't treat anything that requires hospitalization. That's how a virus with 1% mortality turns in to a virus with a 3-5% mortality...by having people infected that can't be treated. That's how the common cold shuts down economies. 

Very simply put...we now have a NEW virus that will be with us forever. It will mutate and change every year, and be part of "flu season". 

I can't write much more without getting political...but we are repeating the same mistakes of 1918, and have been making public health mistakes of huge consequence as of late. Well before anyone heard the word "corona". 

Epidemiology is probably my favorite subject to read about and study.


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## anachronism

The scientists who get to tell the truth as opposed to the media who just like to spread panic are saying that as Sno quite rightly pointed out it's here to stay. 

Their prognosis is that the worst time will be in fact next Winter. 

The minute it left the laboratory in China on one man the world was going to get it. There are no measures to prevent its spread that will have any effect, and it's entirely possible that hundreds of thousands have already had it because for most it's no worse than a bad cold.


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## Johnny5

anachronism said:


> The minute it left the laboratory in China on one man the world was going to get it. There are no measures to prevent its spread that will have any effect, and it's entirely possible that hundreds of thousands have already had it because for most it's no worse than a bad cold.


Absolutely true. There's nothing on this planet that could have been implemented to stop this virus/disease from spreading globally once it left that facility.
No person, persons, organization, country....etc. could have stopped this once it got out.

On a side note, my wife and I are hauling some of the CDC test kits to the quarantine areas........


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## patnor1011

While life appears quite normal you will start to see cracks if you open your eyes a bit more. Yes, costco runs on toilet paper and hand sanitizer was medialized and while it looks funny it is what we can expect with many of other things. 
Anyway I can only say what I see over here but being in touch with a lot of people in sales and deliveries I get not very nice indications. Like factories where people already work 3 days a week this week and the next while they were told that after that factory will shut down as there are no parts coming from China. Or that you cant get certain type of tyres anymore as they also did not come and nobody know when the next delivery will be made. These things are multiplying as I said this problem with constricted supply is not a new thing - goods are not leaving China in volumes we used to get for the last 2 months already.
Now I was told that rice went 30% up wholesale as my friend who run restaurant was quoted new price and he was told that he can only get 1/3 of what he usually order as "there is not enough".
I do not want to panic - I am well stocked and prepared since this is what I was always doing. 

Take face masks and hand sanitizer for example. You cant buy these things anymore. Completely sold out with people wandering from shop to shop trying to buy them somewhere. I got mine 6 weeks ago.
I am wondering what may be the next so I can get it before it runs out because some things will run out it is just a matter of time.


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## Geo

The thing about viruses is it's ability to inject it's DNA into the host. Once a person has had the virus and survived, the virus becomes part of that persons DNA. Antibodies are produced in the host to stop future infections. A mutated form of the same virus can infect someone that had the original but the antibodies produced from the first infection reduces the symptoms of the next infection. At some point in the future, COVID-19 will be just a cold to everyone.


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## patnor1011

It is not the virus that concerns me but rather problems associated with it. Or better yet - possibilities. 
I am having problem to express myself without sounding like cold and heartless but here it goes -

Whole purpose of starting this discussion is to find out how to not lose money and actually make money on this situation. You never let a serious crisis go to waste.


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## kurtak

patnor1011 said:


> Whole purpose of starting this discussion is to find out how to not lose money and actually make money on this situation. You never let a serious crisis go to waste.



You are already to late - supply & demand - the supply has aready been "sucked up" (so low/little supply) demand is high (every buddy want what there is little of)

in other words you can't get supply at a fair price to sell at a high price

instead you have to buy at the high price - if you can even get it

Kurt


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## acpeacemaker

Proctor&Gamble has had a decent upswing this past year. 
Monopolize on fear.


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## galenrog

Since your purpose is to profit off any disruption in supplies, I have to agree with Kurtak that you are already too late. Unless you are positioned well ahead of time, you will likely not profit off any supply disruption. 

Consider what retailers in the US do leading up to hurricane season. Chains such as Home Depot and Lowe’s will preposition generators, plywood, lumber, and a variety of other goods, at warehouses with an expectation of increased demand as a major storm approaches. It does not always work. There are times when the retailer overestimates demand and is stuck with excess inventory for months.

If you want to be positioned well for the next supply disruption, you might want to study something called the “Waffle House Model”. The iconic American restaurant chain does very well during local emergency recovery due to how they position supplies and equipment. The model is recognized as one of the better emergency response models in use today.

Time for more coffee.


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## butcher

Looks like grave digging are one of the more profitable professions during these types of flue seasons.

https://youtu.be/UDY5COg2P2c
https://youtu.be/ycrqXJYf1SU
https://youtu.be/A1yXTlvTB08
https://youtu.be/XU9FVqwO4TM


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## acpeacemaker

It's hard for me not to relate this in a way. To all the gun issues we've had in the US over the past 6 years. All the school and cinema shootings brought a lot of fear. Then the political side which I won't put down due to policy. 
But one day I was in a large grocery store right next to an Oacac headquarters. (If you want to look it up it was in Co Springs off Fillmore rd.) I just went in for milk. I didn't know I'd be staying almost 8 hrs on lockdown. But some random guy decided to come down from the mountains and shoot up the complex. 

My point is it brought fear to that direct population. The next couple weeks that came after everyone was all the sudden arms dealers. That block alone had like 4 new stores that decided to open shop, along with the random individuals selling. They made the money off impulse and emotions.
Anyone remember when .22 rounds were barren off the shelves? The list goes on and on...

But money can be made off the fear of not knowing the unknown and awareness what is of the possible. A lot of people only will seek out knowledge when something bad happens. Sad but true.


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## patnor1011

Well, I was growing up in a socialist country. To be precise I experienced fruits of socialism up until I was 15. I still remember periodical shortages of certain items and parents talking about stuff that happened before I was born. Living in that made me the way I am and the same goes for my wife. We simply always have at least a 4-6 weeks supply of food plus about a year supply of other long shelf life food items and essential stuff like medicine, cosmetics, pretty much everything you need to have around in the house. 
Since this started I knew that masks and hand sanitizers will be first to go off the shelves so I got plenty of that. 
You guys - living in the USA do have more experience with this kind of situation due to many weather-caused disasters I was simply trying to figure out what may be the next. I know the food will be more expensive and some types of it perhaps even hard to get. Guns and ammo are out of question over here. 
I restarted my colloidal silver cell as that can be a good alternative to disinfection when alcohol runs out and if there will not be enough of it around in the next few months. Every wholeseller around is out of stock and you cant get rubbing alcohol anywhere. Not to mention that it went from 20£ per 5 liter to 35£ pretty much overnight.


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## Shark

Short term panic here is almost funny. Every storm or snow threat and you can not find milk or bread. No waiting to see if the weatherman is right, just stock up. The odd thing to me is the stuff that gets gone the fastest has no real ability for long term storage. I keep a supply of various ammunition for my guns, a stock of canned and dried food stuffs, and various things to purify water with. Having a gas camp stove has cooked us many a meal while others did with cold foods, but it is only good if you keep fuel on hand.


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## anachronism

Interesting piece of data. 

The UK had the same number of new cases today that Italy had on the 25th February. 

Today, the 9th March Italy had 1,800 new cases. 

I'll suggest that by the 21st of March the UK will have 1,800 new cases in a day. I hope I'm wrong, but there's enough modelling out there of outbreaks such as this to show that it's already way way too late to prevent it by gentle means.


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## kernels

I wish I had more cash sitting around to buy shares in good quality companies right now. When the market bleeds, good companies go down with the bad ones. 

I guess in a way it has turned out lucky that I have been squirrelling away a few grams of Gold every week for years now, looking pretty good in kiwi Dollars right now, all-time-high for us.


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## patnor1011

My take is that governments are acting like lunatics. 
It is inevitable that this is going to spread so they should focus on old and vulnerable people to somehow try to shield them. Like these are the people who should stay away from crowds or perhaps even isolate themselves somehow to weather it out. For every other person who will get it, it will be no worse than the flu. 
By closing down everything they are just accelerating economic collapse which will be bad for everyone.


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## snoman701

You are mixing issues. The economy and public health are very different animals. One is based in facts, the other emotions.

Public health has the responsibility to ration it's resources. In this situation, they want and NEED a pandemic to be played out over the period of months if not years, so that they do not become overwhelmed by what seems to be an infinite number of patients, with a very finite patient care team, ICU beds, respirators, etc.

Simply put, if everyone gets sick all at once, we will overwhelm the system, and people that could have been kept alive will be dying in the hallway. Not to mention, then we'll start seeing doctors and nurses working themselves to death, literally. 

Best case scenario, through closures, cancellations, quarantines, etc, we CAN shield those people that are at most risk, by making sure that when they do get sick, they have the same resources available as they do when they get the flu. 

The economy has been erratic for months. Unfettered growth with no basis in reality, it is and was unsustainable.


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## FrugalRefiner

Spot on Snoman. Spreading the rate of infection over a longer period of time so resources are more available as they are needed is known as flattening the curve.

Dave


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## anachronism

Sno and Dave

I agree with both of you but if you keep a close eye on Italy over the coming days you'll see the reality of the situation unfolding. I don't believe you guys will have it so bad in your warmer states.


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## snoman701

Well, from what I have seen out of Italy thus far, it's hitting them hard and fast...and they are talking about having to triage patients so that those with the best chances are getting appropriate care....and by appropriate, i mean, the limited care that is available.

Here is what Dave referred to as "flattening the curve".


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## Lou

If people can wait it out, follow proper hygiene and avoid at risk populations, this can be tempered.

No doubt this is a very serious public health situation.


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## anachronism

It's also extremely probable that hundreds of thousands of people have already had this and passed it off as a bad cold without even being tested.


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## niks neims

not counting the economic impact, hopefully, we'll (the establishment) get to learn a thing or to about disease, pandemic control, etc. without too much of a fallout...so far it seems that we are not quite ready for a really nasty disease to come around...


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## anachronism

niks neims said:


> not counting the economic impact, hopefully, we'll (the establishment) get to learn a thing or to about disease, pandemic control, etc. without too much of a fallout...so far it seems that we are not quite ready for a really nasty disease to come around...



Oh we are technically ready. What we are not prepared to do is implement the force needed to prevent the spread of such a disease worldwide. 

Our democratically elected politicians of all flavours are more interested in their own jobs. 

Tried getting up to date Chinese Coronavirus figures via Google lately? 8) 8)


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## niks neims

anachronism said:


> niks neims said:
> 
> 
> 
> not counting the economic impact, hopefully, we'll (the establishment) get to learn a thing or to about disease, pandemic control, etc. without too much of a fallout...so far it seems that we are not quite ready for a really nasty disease to come around...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Oh we are technically ready. What we are not prepared to do is implement the force needed to prevent the spread of such a disease worldwide.
> 
> Our democratically elected politicians of all flavours are more interested in their own jobs.
> 
> Tried getting up to date Chinese Coronavirus figures via Google lately? 8) 8)
Click to expand...

I'm no scientist, but I'd guess "technically" is not good enough, how it all plays out in real world environment - that's where we can learn for next time... Also it shows that people are not ready to change their behavior in wake of crisis like this - for example this virus came to my country (and I assume, yours) by plane, not too long ago - the risk was already known.... Somebody was neglectfull... On the other hand, even PRC with it's near authoritarian regime, wast resources and all of the world's eyes set on this epicenter (perfect opportunity to show success of regime) couldn't stop it.... So I don't know, I agree that it is likely that most of us will get it, lets just hope it'll blow over like a flu, and next time (when ebola mutates) we'll be more ready.... Like a vaccine for public counsiousness...


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## Auful

Just remember all of this hoopla over ~1k US cases? Agreed, morbidly is high, but so far mortality much lower than the Swine flu which infected over 21 million us citizens in 2009. How many NBA games were cancelled then? Zero. Please consider the theory this is mostly a political stunt. I'm not belittling those Ill or who have died, but I'm suspicious about the massive reaction to just over 200k infections worldwide...

Edit spelling errors


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## acpeacemaker

Crypto across the board of a lot of coins have fallen hard today. A lot of words being said on no travel.


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## snoman701

Auful said:


> Just remember all of this hoopla over ~1k US cases? Agreed, morbidly is high, but so far mortality much lower than the Swine flu which infected over 21 million us citizens in 2009. How many NBA games were cancelled then? Zero. Please consider the theory this is mostly a political stunt. I'm not belittling those Ill or who have died, but I'm suspicious about the massive reaction to just over 200k infections worldwide...
> 
> Edit spelling errors



Swine flu mortality was 1%. Thus far, this has higher mortality and morbidity. But swine flu was also recognized late in the 2009 influenza season, and it's impact was in the 2010 season. So there was time to prepare. This has all happened in three months. 

We may only have ~1k confirmed cases...but the inability to test to see just how widespread it is sort of limits the argument that it's hoopla. Posthumous testing is showing that it's more established than we thought. 

But yesterday Italy admitted that it can no longer give the same standard of care to all patients, because the hospitals are simply overrun. It has now moved on to something more reminiscent of wartime triage, abandoning some patients, to provide care for those with greatest chances of survival. They have closed most public spaces, including bars, restaurants, and shops. 

The reality is, what happened in China, was largely a coverup...as that's what China does. But what happened in China was also unprecedented, with them building hospitals basically overnight. Can't say much more on that without getting political...but it's not happening, and it's going to hurt. 

It wasn't until this hit Italy that we got a taste of what is to come. Without the iron fist of authoritarian communism to control both the message and the reaction. 

I'd love for this to be a conspiracy theory...but I don't think it is, as it doesn't aid anyone. We are all going to lose on this one.


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## Auful

snoman701 said:


> Auful said:
> 
> 
> 
> Just remember all of this hoopla over ~1k US cases? Agreed, morbidly is high, but so far mortality much lower than the Swine flu which infected over 21 million us citizens in 2009. How many NBA games were cancelled then? Zero. Please consider the theory this is mostly a political stunt. I'm not belittling those Ill or who have died, but I'm suspicious about the massive reaction to just over 200k infections worldwide...
> 
> Edit spelling errors
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Swine flu mortality was 1%. Thus far, this has higher mortality and morbidity. But swine flu was also recognized late in the 2009 influenza season, and it's impact was in the 2010 season. So there was time to prepare. This has all happened in three months.
> 
> We may only have ~1k confirmed cases...but the inability to test to see just how widespread it is sort of limits the argument that it's hoopla. Posthumous testing is showing that it's more established than we thought.
> 
> But yesterday Italy admitted that it can no longer give the same standard of care to all patients, because the hospitals are simply overrun. It has now moved on to something more reminiscent of wartime triage, abandoning some patients, to provide care for those with greatest chances of survival. They have closed most public spaces, including bars, restaurants, and shops.
> 
> The reality is, what happened in China, was largely a coverup...as that's what China does. But what happened in China was also unprecedented, with them building hospitals basically overnight. Can't say much more on that without getting political...but it's not happening, and it's going to hurt.
> 
> It wasn't until this hit Italy that we got a taste of what is to come. Without the iron fist of authoritarian communism to control both the message and the reaction.
> 
> I'd love for this to be a conspiracy theory...but I don't think it is, as it doesn't aid anyone. We are all going to lose on this one.
Click to expand...


Be careful about judging mortality of a disease based on only ~200,000 cases vs. the swine flu, which infected 60 million US citizens (correction from previous claim of 21 million: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html ). Agreed, mortality might be 2%, but one cannot extrapolate at this point. 

Also, the swine flu caused mortality in younger, healthy people, which also made it, compared to the current state of COVID-19, more dangerous. The coronavirus is following a normal pattern of usually causing unfortunate death in the immunocompromised... a trait not oft found with some influenza strains (including the pandemic in 1918).

I'm not projecting that this virus won't be very bad with bad consequences. I'm merely pointing out that ~1500 cases in the US causing the shutdown of Disney, NBA, NHL, an Oregon Governor banning meeting of over 250 people, some Washington public school closures for 4 to 6 weeks over this many cases is an amazing overreaction that smacks of ulterior motive under the guise of protection of public health. And, if this virus is really that bad, it will spread anyway. For the time being, these actions are harming us more than the virus...intentionally.

Edit: add clarification and correct spelling


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## rickbb

The governor of Wash put it this way, you might not have a problem with covid19, but you could be killing grandpa by spreading it.


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## snoman701

Auful said:


> m not projecting that this virus won't be very bad with bad consequences. I'm merely pointing out that ~1500 cases in the US causing the shutdown of Disney, NBA, NHL, an Oregon Governor banning meeting of over 250 people, some Washington public school closures for 4 to 6 weeks over this many cases is an amazing overreaction that smacks of ulterior motive under the guise of protection of public health. And, if this virus is really that bad, it will spread anyway. For the time being, these actions are harming us more than the virus...intentionally.



Again, it is going to spread. That's not a question. Literally, nobody that understands epidemiology is questioning that. 

These actions are intended to slow the spread, so that we don't overwhelm our medical system, so that when people get sick and need treatment, they can get it. Suggestions made by professionals, that spend their life studying public health, disease transmission, past epidemics, etc. 

My daughters school just got closed for 3 weeks. My biggest concern right now isn't how much this is going to ridiculously disrupt my life, but how kids that rely on the school lunch program for a majority of their nutrition, will still eat. Literally...that's my biggest concern.

The other side of your mentality, where you make sacrifices for the common good, is soooo much more rewarding than complaining about how everything is an ulterior motive, and people are out to get you. I strongly recommend giving it a try.


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## patnor1011

This can not be compared to swine flu or influenza.
Thing is that you can't say much about it until it runs its course. They reckon it is going to stay and we will have to adapt somehow. Another bit of news is that it may mutate and therefore vaccines will not be effective enough. Pretty much the same as with flu vaccines.


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## rickzeien

Almost at the tipping point now. 

Soon will be doubling every day if not there already. 

Absent a vaccine or a cure (not likely as there is no cure for the common cold, also a strain if coruna virus) we will see rates in the millions in short order. 

Warm weather in the south may slow it but next season....

Once we develope a herd immunity some other mutation will take it's place. 

Been that way for decades if not generations. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


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## anachronism

There's now speculation that this is in fact a mutation of a virus that was around in early November and is in fact not a new thing at all. 

There was one that I had and a lot of other people had that started with a fever, then four days later you started coughing, and the cough took 4-6 weeks to go away. I don't think we're being told any truths, merely being told what we need to hear, and even that is based upon speculation.


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## rickbb

this.....


https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/


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## snoman701

anachronism said:


> There was one that I had and a lot of other people had that started with a fever, then four days later you started coughing, and the cough took 4-6 weeks to go away.



If it was going to start with anyone, we should have known this plague was your doing.


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## anachronism

snoman701 said:


> anachronism said:
> 
> 
> 
> There was one that I had and a lot of other people had that started with a fever, then four days later you started coughing, and the cough took 4-6 weeks to go away.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> If it was going to start with anyone, we should have known this plague was your doing.
Click to expand...


My name is Legion... :lol: :lol: :lol:


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## Shark

I have had that last one, and it was nasty enough. I have never, in 34 years of marriage, been able to get my wife to go to a doctor. The night she ask me to take her to the hospital, I knew it was bad. A friend of mine coughed so much and so hard it burst blood vessels in his ears, mine was bad enough, with everything else wrong with me, that it was nose bleeds when I coughed. 

On a lighter side (?) watching people shopping today was almost funny. People crying about the store being out of toilet paper, with a whole isle full of napkins and paper towels. Literately watching people standing in line to check out while taking off their face mask and adjusting it. And the latest story is the corona virus is responsible for the price of gas going down 10 cents over night. If I had not just left a funeral I would have been laughing out loud.


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## acpeacemaker

Wife just called from military base in VA. I guess Va's schools shut down for 2 weeks. But, no one can leave off post and no family can come in either.


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## FrugalRefiner

I just came home from the grocery store. They had a good Pi day sale on deli pizzas, so I decided to pick one up. I was shocked! The place looked like pictures I've seen of stores after a riot. I'd estimate that 50% of the shelves were bare. Probably 90% of produce was gone. Probably 80% of meats gone. There wasn't a single package of toilet paper! And I live in Southwest Ohio, not China, Italy, Iran, Washington state, California, etc.

I was reminded of a scene from Men In Black where "J" (Will Smith) has just been recruited by "K" (Tommy Lee Jones) and seen that aliens live among us. J asks K why the secrecy. "People are smart" he says. K answers "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

Dave


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## kurtak

Hmmmm

In response to Shark & Dave's last post

Every time there is a disaster - of any kind - people (by the news media) are told they should stock up on certain "basic" needs AND "keep" in stock those basic needs in the event of a disaster - so that in the event of a disaster they don't need to panic & flock to the store's IN MASS - during &/or AFTER the next disaster

Now (current disaster) everyday for the last month & a half the news media has been telling us - DON'T panic & DON'T go places where people gather in large numbers - AND the reason for that is that the more people you come in contact with the GREATER the odds of you getting the virus &/or spreading it if you have already been in contact with it

So what do people do ? --- PANIC & "flock" to the store's IN MASS to stock up on the things they were told to stock up on "after" every other disaster

One word come's to mind --- INSANITY :!: :roll: :!: :roll: 

Or as I like to say --- "one more time around" (& you still haven't learned anything) :roll: :twisted: 

Kurt


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## Shark

I agree Kurt, 110%. 

I wanted some frozen juice to make a certain beverage with. Sold out. Had plenty of orange juice, just not grape juice, of any kind, not even bottled juices. No household bleach on the shelf in several stores, all but one had a full stock of pool bleach in liquid and dry form. No hand sanitizer, but a full stock of mouth wash. One couple were even arguing over the difference between half gallon jugs of bleach and gallon jugs, of the same brand. Seems the smaller bottle is weaker since it is in smaller bottles. Reminds me of the old brown bottles of Lysol, bet that stuff would work today as well as it did when we were kids, but it is to strong for the public now days. Heck, our county government has shut down until April 15, so it might not be all bad, except we need tags by the end of March. 

Yep, just plain insanity!


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## anachronism

If you subscribe to the Gaia theory the world is trying to cure its own over population problem 8) 

Though it's been patently obvious to scientists that the root cause of global warming is simply too many people and the support needed for those people. If you dropped a billion from the world population it would self rectify the issue. 

This virus kills the elderly and the infirm. Darwin at work?


----------



## kurtak

Well yesterday I went to the grocery store to do my shopping for this next week - there was only one shelf that had nothing left on it - that was the shelf of hand sanitizer - none left - other then that the selves were full & no "dooms day" panic buying

It sure is nice to live in a "very small" town in a "very" remote place where people have "common" sense

Why ? - Because people that live in small "remote" towns are "by nature" preppers :mrgreen: --- When you live two & a half hours from the nearest Wal-Mart you make the trip once every couple months (or more) & "stock up" on ALL the "basics" needed for at least a couple months

We where actually talking & laughing about the "insanity" we are watching "out there" :lol: :roll: :mrgreen: 

Kurt


----------



## snoman701

Meanwhile in metro detroit the grocery stores were selling out of the decorative greens they have on the cheese cooler and every weird kind of produce they sell. It is said that people were just stuffing stuff in their carts, happy to get anything.

But the local mom and pop grocery still had their normal selection...a bit less inventory, but not much. You just have to watch their potatoes. Sometimes they sit on the display so long they grow eyes.


----------



## Shark

Growing eyes. Those are now seed potatoes and it is just about planting season here for them. One potato will make several plants. Growing our own food, that would be real doomsday prepping. 

We are seeing the smaller stores still carrying some hard to find goods, but not much. The paper mill about 50 miles from us caught on fire and is shut down until they get it repaired, how long, they don't know yet. Local Walmart has started closing at night to restock because of people becoming aggressive when the shelf's get low. I live in a very small town, just not remote enough to avoid all the crazies.


----------



## anachronism

The irony of people using anti bacterial hand sanitiser to prevent catching a virus never ceases to amaze me. 8) 8) 

Dumb as rocks.


----------



## jarlowski1

anachronism said:


> The irony of people using anti bacterial hand sanitiser to prevent catching a virus never ceases to amaze me. 8) 8)
> 
> Dumb as rocks.



While you are entirely correct on that statement the overall idea of "washing" your hands can prove effective but with waterless hand sanitizer you aren't actually rinsing the virus away so that would be why it wouldn't be that effective.


----------



## anachronism

It's useless because an anti bacterial agent doesn't have any effect on a virus.


----------



## jarlowski1

anachronism said:


> It's useless because an anti bacterial agent doesn't have any effect on a virus.



Yes I agree that is why I said your statement is correct. However washing your hands can "mechanically" remove the virus from your hands so if you rinsed your hands while the instant hand sanitizer was still wet it would still help but not as effective as just plain soap and water. Most people buying the instant hand sanitizer would not be rinsing it off their hands and that would be why I would say it is "completely ineffective" for what they are trying to combat.


----------



## metatp

According to CDC, high Alcohol content sanitizers will be effective as well. Just because it is an antibacterial does not mean it does not kill viruses as well. Washing your hands with soap is probably best.


----------



## snoman701

anachronism said:


> It's useless because an anti bacterial agent doesn't have any effect on a virus.



They are if the active ingredient is alcohol, which is quite effective against enveloped viruses, of which CVD-19 is.


----------



## anachronism

People are promoting using non alcohol anti bacterial hand products as a good way to prevent transmission. The alcohol thing isn't mentioned because the message people are getting is that an anti bacterial product prevents this virus. 

A lot of people cannot use alcohol containing products on their hands - hence the different ranges. The point about the act of washing the hands is darned correct though!

Apparently good old fashioned soap is the way ahead.


----------



## markscomp

lye and lard --- soap, home made. clean the hands and wash away bacteria


----------



## Shark

Onions and garlic are high in antiviral properties, just don't mix them with salt and get it on your skin for any length of time. Adding salt to either will kill and remove warts.


----------



## g_axelsson

anachronism said:


> Interesting piece of data.
> 
> The UK had the same number of new cases today that Italy had on the 25th February.
> 
> Today, the 9th March Italy had 1,800 new cases.
> 
> I'll suggest that by the 21st of March the UK will have 1,800 new cases in a day. I hope I'm wrong, but there's enough modelling out there of outbreaks such as this to show that it's already way way too late to prevent it by gentle means.



Not as bad as Italy... 1,100 new cases on the 21st. 1,400 new cases yesterday on the 24th. 

I'm using this site to follow the virus outbreak. It's based on data from several international and national sources and updated around the clock.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
There are large under-reporting of the real outbreak as there are no real testing done in large parts of the world, Africa, South America, large parts of Asia. I would have included USA a week ago, but they have started to get the testing going and it reveals how bad it really are. 

Based on the numbers from Italy, China and USA it looks like a majority of cases will be in USA in three to four days. What we are seeing today in the statistics is what happened a week ago.

The numbers for Sweden is looking better than they are since the health department have given up to track down the virus in the community and only tests people that are hospitalized.

One of my acquaintances probably got it a week ago, went to the doctor and they found out that he had pneumonia, sent back home with an antibiotic treatment and was told to come back if he didn't get better in four days. Last time I met him was two month ago, but two of my friends that I met last week has both met him recently. I'm probably not affected but you really doesn't know since some people can get it without any symptoms.

I'm trying to bring forth my anti-social skills and not meet with any people at all. Best cure is to not get the virus in the first place.

I've been social distancing myself since before it became cool. :mrgreen: 

Keep safe!

Göran


----------



## snoman701

g_axelsson said:


> I'm trying to bring forth my anti-social skills and not meet with any people at all. Best cure is to not get the virus in the first place.
> 
> I've been social distancing myself since before it became cool. :mrgreen:



It's awesome to be a trendsetter for once isn't it!


----------



## rickbb

snoman701 said:


> g_axelsson said:
> 
> 
> 
> I'm trying to bring forth my anti-social skills and not meet with any people at all. Best cure is to not get the virus in the first place.
> 
> I've been social distancing myself since before it became cool. :mrgreen:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It's awesome to be a trendsetter for once isn't it!
Click to expand...


All my life I've been the outsider that no one wanted to chose to be on their side. Now it's a blessing.


----------



## anachronism

I have noticed that only Males and Females appear to be affected by the Coronavirus. It appears that none of the other genders are getting infected.


----------



## Yggdrasil

Yeah, but that is natural, because they are for the most part a virtual construct and not of this world :roll:


----------



## rickzeien

anachronism said:


> I have noticed that only Males and Females appear to be affected by the Coronavirus. It appears that none of the other genders are getting infected.


You have injured me with your words... LOL

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


----------



## stella polaris

anachronism said:


> The irony of people using anti bacterial hand sanitiser to prevent catching a virus never ceases to amaze me. 8) 8)
> 
> Dumb as rocks.


 I have been classified as dumb as a rock just because i told people that alco gel did not work on virus. I was so stupid that i did not understand it was to stop corona virus from spreading. or as they told me. Why should they trust me when medical doctors recomended alco gel against Corona virus. :?


----------



## anachronism

Alcohol gel yes- but most hand sanitisers that were being bandied about as preventing the spread of Coronavirus were in fact not alcohol based. 

People saw "hand sanitiser" and didn't look any further. 8) 8)


----------



## stella polaris

Shark is right when he mention potato growing. Its the best, cheapest and easiest way to "prepp". That will say if you belong to the actually few that knows how to grow and store potato. Knowledge are and will always be no 1 for survival.

Toilet paper is of no importance for survival so it can be dropped instantly.

If you want alco gel then buy technical alcohol and make it yourself. Same shit. Much cheaper and stronger than the desk products. Why not start a tempoary production? You guys should be able to make an alco gel out of technical alcohol. Mix in Silver and you might become a billionare :lol: 

Personaly I do not fear this virus. Yes some people will die. But lets not forget that we are not immortal. We have to die of something. Might sound hard but the day we get a real nasty desease we migth have run out of words to describe it as dangerous. We have spend the superlatives on Corona.

Corona is not even close to a real killer desease. It do not even fulfill the standard for a pandemi. ( WHO classifyed it as a pandemi against their own defenition.) The amount of scientific figures we are given in media is very low. I can not even make a standard Zoo ecological analysis on the given figures. (animal populations and human populations have exactly the same math)

Who to trust? the media and Mike Pompeo saying its from China or Taiwaneese and Japaneese scientists saying its from US? This question will be battled over til we get so tired of it that we will stop listen.


----------



## Yggdrasil

Hmm, the shoratage of hand-alcohol should be followed up with a legalisation of production of your own :lol: 
If by some chance some of it fell into a glass in your vicinity, it should be considered as desinfection of your innards.

Of course since it is not too pleasant to drink full strength one could benefit from thinning it to 70% by adding some taste :lol: 8)

One glass a day should be enough for anyone.
I did not say anything regarding the size of the glass :mrgreen:


----------



## stella polaris

Here in Norway it have been a scandal. Doctors have been writing recipes on Malaria profylax to their friends. This in order to stockpile it. Qinnine (english spelling?) have been found to have "positive effects". Now the profylax is i shortage.

I would there for want to remind you all about the exellent English variant of digest this type of profylax. Namely the so famous drink of Brittish officers in India. They refused to take profylax since it was somewhat unmanly. They there for invented the Gin and tonic drink. Tonic water have qinnin and Gin alcohol. Can it be better?? :mrgreen:


----------



## anachronism

Yggdrasil said:


> One glass a day should be enough for anyone.
> I did not say anything regarding the size of the glass :mrgreen:



I think the Bavarians lead the way in appropriate glassware for a one glass per day limit.


----------



## stella polaris

anachronism said:


> I have noticed that only Males and Females appear to be affected by the Coronavirus. It appears that none of the other genders are getting infected.



That why the Brittish figures are so low.


----------



## anachronism

Ouch!!! What did I ever do to deserve THAT????? 

Haha that's harsh dude... 

:lol: :lol: :lol:

ps I actually spat my coffee over the screen when I read that. Talk about out of the blue!


----------



## stella polaris

anachronism said:


> Ouch!!! What did I ever do to deserve THAT?????
> 
> Haha that's harsh dude...
> 
> :lol: :lol: :lol:
> 
> ps I actually spat my coffee over the screen when I read that. Talk about out of the blue!



It was to good to miss. You would have done the same. I like English humor.


----------



## anachronism

Honestly that's the best full blown laugh I have had in days. Thank you. 8) 8) I'm crying.


----------



## stella polaris

anachronism said:


> Honestly that's the best full blown laugh I have had in days. Thank you. 8) 8) I'm crying.



In Iran many in government have got the Corona virus. But as I know not a single one in the Brittish government. :wink:


----------



## anachronism

You're a little out of date. The PM got it today, along with one of his senior ministers, and the chief scientist. :| :|


----------



## stella polaris

anachronism said:


> You're a little out of date. The PM got it today, along with one of his senior ministers, and the chief scientist. :| :|



A, they just want to show of. They all been to boarding school.


----------



## patnor1011

Full lockdown of sorts announced in Ireland since last midnight. That means every store or business not on some "essential services" list will have to be closed. Valid till easter Sunday. 
I am waiting for my delivery of raised bed frames for gardening as with lockdown even that I am still working I will have way too much free time and we decided to spend it in the garden.


----------



## g_axelsson

stella polaris said:


> Corona is not even close to a real killer desease. It do not even fulfill the standard for a pandemi. ( WHO classifyed it as a pandemi against their own defenition.) The amount of scientific figures we are given in media is very low. I can not even make a standard Zoo ecological analysis on the given figures. (animal populations and human populations have exactly the same math)



Well, I don't see any discrepancy between the (outdated) six step WHO pandemic definition and the current situation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic
It's spreading by itself all over the world and that is what a pandemic disease is.

And not being a killer disease? There are a lot of people that would disagree with you... wait, they cant as they are all dead. 27.000 and counting. The hospital systems are overwhelmed and we haven't seen the peek yet. This means that ordinary patients will also suffer, if it's just a car crash, heart infarct or cancer. More people will die when they don't get treatment in time or inferior treatment.



stella polaris said:


> Who to trust? the media and Mike Pompeo saying its from China or Taiwaneese and Japaneese scientists saying its from US? This question will be battled over til we get so tired of it that we will stop listen.



Why not trust the Chinese scientists, they say that it originated in Wuhan, China. Probably jumped species from bats and maybe over an intermediate host into humans. There are a lot of corona viruses that normally resides in bat populations but sometimes jump into human populations. Researcher have found several local outbreaks of similar corona viruses in rural Chinese areas by tracking antibody responses to the infection. The virus is gone but the anti bodies that the immune defense developed remains.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2012-7

Göran


----------



## Yggdrasil

There is mounting more and more evidence that the path was from bats to pangolins to humans.
It seems this is the first wave of Corona based epidemic/pandemic we have seen, there will be more of them, of course. Hopefully we will have aquired some flock immunity before the next strain hit us.

It can be anywhere on the chart regarding contagiousness and deadlyness, luckily so far the most deadly deceases don't spread well and those that spread well haven't been that hard, besides the Spanish flu that is.
Interestingly enough, the conditions that created these virus strains emerged during the hard years under Mao's years of rule. 
People starving started eating all kinds of wild animals, it was closed during the SARS epidemic, but sadly reopened later.
Hopefully now it will be closed totally.


----------



## stella polaris

My point is that Corona is mostly hitting those in the end of their life cycle. The mankind, as a population, are of no threat what so ever by Corona. If it would have been those in the beginning of their life cycle, our children, that would die from the Corona virus it would have affected the population. But even the figures of corona would have done a very little impact on the human population. The only figures i fund (uncomfirmed) of death rates including all cases, mild as severe, is 0,025%. That is one death per 4000 ppl. Aprox one death per week can be expected from a 4000 population in Western hemisphere. 

Now no one wants to lose close and beloved ones. Still it always will happend one way or the other. But today we seems to have forgotten that we are going to die on day. In the same time we have lost most of our altruism. 

Today most of countries have chosen to close pubs, schools and other public meeting places. The benefit of this are said to spread the pressure on the health sector. But what are the negative aspects of this?.

Will we be safer in the future? No. If healty people not will be exposed to the virus they will not become resistant. The share resistant individuals, in a population, have a significant impact of the spreading of the virus. When a flu wave have passed a country it must have closed borders in order to prevent the virus to bubble up again. A country that have not restricted interactions will have fast peak, with a lot of deaths. Afterwards it will have a semi resistant population. This hamper the return of the virus later. Here we should not forget that the risk groups are filled up in numbers by the time. If the virus return so will the death rate increase again.

By isolation the whole population we just push the problem ahead of us. It also risking making the matter worse. In my view the best would be to isolate the risk groups and then let the flu have its inpact on the rest of population. By doing this the risk groups will not have to be isolated so long time as with the system we use today. Economical impact would also be less.


----------



## anachronism

There's a growing number of people that includes professionals, who believe this is a total over reaction.

The hysterical media has whipped up a storm.


----------



## Yggdrasil

It is hard to know just how bad it will become, but then again whipping up storms, exaggerating stuff and using the most intense superatives availible any given time, is what their live and thrive off.

Here in Norway there is a support system for media to support and promote a varied media infrastructure.
The problem is, it has become a support system for the big mainstream mediahouses (two own most the newspapers) and a few religious and far left newspapers, and now they are all screaming for more money. 
They already recieve several hundreds of million pounds, to angle the news from exactly the same angle as all the others :roll:


----------



## FrugalRefiner

I understand the desire to discuss the current world situation among those we consider friends, but we are straying farther from the purpose of this forum, which is refining precious metals. Anyone who wants to discuss the political, religious, media coverage, and other aspects of this pandemic can surely find another venue in which to do it. Let's not create division among our members by speculating on such things here.

Thank you in advance for your understanding and cooperation,
Dave


----------



## Yggdrasil

Fair enough my friend, just a moments frustration.
I'll see if I can find the narrow path again.


----------



## FrugalRefiner

Yggdrasil said:


> Fair enough my friend, just a moments frustration.



I completely understand! I think we all feel that way. We are all nearly powerless to control something that is affecting all our lives in a way that no other recent event has.

Our daughter is an occupational therapist. She has to show up for work each day in several health care facilities she visits. Her husband is a police officer. No working from home for him as he has to interact with all facets of society. Our son is a chemical engineer who travels the world helping clients solve problems to use the chemicals they supply. His wife is a sonographer, who like our daughter has to visit several hospitals to provide sonograms of the ill and injured. We worry every day that one of them, or our grandsons could be infected.

So I'm not a robot. I share everyone's frustrations and fears. But for short periods each day, I try to escape to this little sanctuary.

Dave


----------



## Yggdrasil

Dave.
In this case the frustration was not on my behalf, but when corporations with multi 100k CEOs and government silver spoons in the mouth of their companies, complain and not asks but demands bigger spoons and plan to give nothing in return, yes then I get frustrated.
There are scores of people that need it more.

I kind of like the thing they have started (in Italy I think), people get onto their roofs and clap to salute the nurses and doctors when they leave the hospitals to go home after their shift.

This should be enough steam for me in this round, this is general chat after all :lol: :wink: 

Small struggle to write, I tried to "stop" a circular saw with a finger :roll: :wink: 
I guess safety is not always on our mind, even if it should.


----------



## FrugalRefiner

Yggdrasil said:


> Small struggle to write, I tried to "stop" a circular saw with a finger :roll: :wink:
> I guess safety is not always on our mind, even if it should.



I tried the same technique on a snow blower some years back. The snow blower won.  

Dave


----------



## Yggdrasil

Same here mate  
It is definately not well suited as slimming :twisted: 
And this white thing on my left hand is blocking parts of the keyboard.
Oh well, it is how it is now.
Enjoy the rest of the weekend folks


----------



## jarlowski1

I had a similar argument with a table saw.... luckily for me the blade was set only an 1/8 inch (a couple of mm) above the work piece. Man that was a bad day. :| . I just recieved news my 2nd cousin got the coronavirus. Hope he recovers from it.


----------



## Yggdrasil

Those arguments are always lost ;-)
I hope for his and everybody elses speedy recovery.
Have a safe week


----------



## jarlowski1

I appreciate your concern. I too hope everyone will recovery quickly. In spite of all this maybe it can teach us something about how we (the world) react to this type of thing. Im sure there is some way we could improve to be better prepared for the next one.


----------



## stella polaris

anachronism said:


> There's a growing number of people that includes professionals, who believe this is a total over reaction.
> 
> The hysterical media has whipped up a storm.




https://www.greenmedinfo.com/blog/medical-testimony-by-dr-wodarg-on-the-corona-panic


----------



## patnor1011

Well, this hype is seriously moving prices and availability of precious metals mainly gold and silver. Good luck trying to buy silver for less than double of spot price anywhere in Ireland. Gold is scarce too, as of typing this I have found just one company which still do have some coins or bars in stock at about 20% over spot. Few other places are still selling but with a little disclaimer, that item will be shipped as soon as they get it in stock. 

Seems like we are going to see quite an increase in prices of physical gold and silver.


----------



## stella polaris

patnor1011 said:


> Well, this hype is seriously moving prices and availability of precious metals mainly gold and silver. Good luck trying to buy silver for less than double of spot price anywhere in Ireland. Gold is scarce too, as of typing this I have found just one company which still do have some coins or bars in stock at about 20% over spot. Few other places are still selling but with a little disclaimer, that item will be shipped as soon as they get it in stock.
> 
> Seems like we are going to see quite an increase in prices of physical gold and silver.



Silver is scarce in Norway too. Close to but not as bad as spot x 2. Old 830 dining silver can still be found to acceptable prices. Gold I do not really know but it seems similar here as in Irland.

In one way i understand the companies selling. You do not want to sell if losing money. They will try to keep up the price as long they have stocks they paid over spot price for. They are there to make a profit and a living.
The question for me is; If the minting units around the world have problem getting silver, with their long time suppliers and contacts, how come the spot is so low? Is it somebody buying the silver to the spot? and if so, who?
The mintings problem to get silver make no logic to me.


----------



## kurtak

stella polaris said:


> patnor1011 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Well, this hype is seriously moving prices and availability of precious metals mainly gold and silver. Good luck trying to buy silver for less than double of spot price anywhere in Ireland. Gold is scarce too, as of typing this I have found just one company which still do have some coins or bars in stock at about 20% over spot. Few other places are still selling but with a little disclaimer, that item will be shipped as soon as they get it in stock.
> 
> Seems like we are going to see quite an increase in prices of physical gold and silver.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Silver is scarce in Norway too. Close to but not as bad as spot x 2. Old 830 dining silver can still be found to acceptable prices. Gold I do not really know but it seems similar here as in Irland.
> 
> In one way i understand the companies selling. You do not want to sell if losing money. They will try to keep up the price as long they have stocks they paid over spot price for. They are there to make a profit and a living.
> The question for me is; If the minting units around the world have problem getting silver, with their long time suppliers and contacts, how come the spot is so low? Is it somebody buying the silver to the spot? and if so, who?
> The mintings problem to get silver make no logic to me.
Click to expand...


It's not just Ireland or Norway - there is a world wide shortage for "deliverable" silver - I just tried logging on to the Golden State Mint web site & a message popped up saying (something like) service temporarily suspended due to bullion demand

Just talked to a buddy of mine as well that holds both real silver & paper silver - he said he called for "delivery" on $100,000 of his paper silver & was told they could only make delivery on a VERY SMALL portion & the price of delivery was $24/ozt - or they could right a check - at spot 

So - being quoted a "delivery price" of $24/ozt he asked for a price if he wanted to sell some of his real silver & he was told 95% of spot

In other words - the "market" price is low because you can buy ALL the silver you want - "as long as it is paper" (or digital actually) --- but try to buy &/or "call for" and you are not going to get it - because they don't have it

I have posted about it before - and it is called "fraud" 

:arrow: http://goldrefiningforum.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=60&t=21425&p=221204&hilit=fraud#p221204

Of course that is just my opinion

Kurt


----------



## nickvc

Also bear in mind with this human malware situation many mines and large refineries have closed down, I know three of the biggest refineries in Switzerland have closed as they are in the northern Italian border region.
I also agree with Kurt because I’m sure if everyone holding bits of paper saying they own gold or silver asked for physical delivery there would be riots as I’m sure there is nowhere near enough physical metals available or ever will be available to cover 10% of the paper metals sold and that I think is been optimistic.
But you also have to remember who the big players are in these markets, the banks, and you can be sure they won’t get caught out, they will just change the rules to cover themselves and the rest of us can rot.


----------



## stella polaris

Citat "The United States is NOT currently experiencing an influenza pandemic."

What to say? I do agree with them.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/index.htm

How can they be ignored? Who knows better than them?


----------



## g_axelsson

stella polaris said:


> Citat "The United States is NOT currently experiencing an influenza pandemic."
> 
> What to say? I do agree with them.
> 
> https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/index.htm
> 
> How can they be ignored? Who knows better than them?


That is correct, covid-19 is not an influenza, it's a corona virus.

I think we should listen to the experts.


> CDC is responding to a pandemic of respiratory disease spreading from person-to-person caused by a novel (new) coronavirus.



https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/summary.html

How can they be ignored? Who knows better than them?

Göran


----------



## stella polaris

Good points Göran.

Here you can see the definition of a Pandemic.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/basics/about.html

According to this US do not have one. The mortality is to low on healty people. 

As I mentioned before WHO did step away from this definition (scientific and world wide accepted) and declared a pandemic, even if not fulfilling the scientific definition. This is bad science.. To be a pandemic healty people should run a serious risk if getting the virus. So is not the case. These people i refuse to see as "experts". An Expert follows scientific definitions.

If you read a little more you find that they respond to a pandemic declared by WHO. They them self do not think it is one. They just respond to WHO that declared the pandemic without support of the definition of a pandemic.

Edit: All Corona viruses i think belong to the flu group


----------



## anachronism

Yeah you've also got to look at facts. The fact is that a lot of people are dying from things who also have the coronavirus. Some governments like the UK are therefore attributing those deaths to Coronavirus. 

Germany isn't. Therefore their figures are a fraction of other countries but more realistic. 

Both Italy and China are now saying "it's been around a lot longer than we thought." So an awful lot of people have had it before all the panic and hysteria. UK Health services have suggested the true figures in the UK alone could be in the millions. If that's the case then it's doubly much lower on the scale of nasty diseases. 

True deaths in the UK are less than 100 by the reckoning of no underlying illness. If the infection rate is over a million then please, what are we panicking over?


----------



## stella polaris

anachronism said:


> Germany isn't. Therefore their figures are a fraction of other countries but more realistic.



A German scientist do not take light on a definition. No matter what science, They have a tendency to follow the book. If I get a German scientist against me, in this case, I will instantly get more humble and check up it once again.


----------



## Yggdrasil

The word comes from greek *pan* all, *demos* people andf the original meaning was that when something affected everyone on a multinasjonal/global scale, it is pandemic. 
merriam webster says:


> : an outbreak of a disease that occurs over a wide geographic area and affects an exceptionally high proportion of the population : a pandemic outbreak of a disease


In its original meaning it had nothing with mortality or danger to the health just how widespread it was. 
As with most new bacteria or viruses the human immune system have no ready response to SARS-COV2 yet, so it have to start from scratch. 
The authorithies didn't know how the population would react to it, so some reacted hard and some almost not at all.
Anyhow how one sees it, it will take a long time to bounce back from the effects of the lockdowns and quarantines.
In the end, we may never find out if it was too much or too little.

Germany has been "prepping" for ever and has the systems and resources to cope with most things.
"Ordnung must sein", there must be order :mrgreen:  :lol:
*
Edited for clarity, yet again  *


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## rickzeien

Yggdrasil

Well stated.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


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## rickbb

Saw a politico on some "news" show who acted early on when asked if they were over reacting, they said;

"When something like this breaks out if you act early you're you're panicking over nothing. After it's over you are told you didn't act soon enough or do enough." 

Only history will know who did what and whether it was the right thing or not. We, (the US) are still in the beginning on the upward side of the curve.

A month from now will tell us.


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## anachronism

That's a very good point Rick. 

I would look at the European and Asian situations as they are a lot further along this roller coaster ride.


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## snoman701

We already have makeshift refrigerated truck morgues outside hospitals because the hospital morgue is full. 

We still don't have enough testing capacity to monitor our health care workers, or offer adequate testing to the general population. 

We are well past the point where we can say we didn't act early enough. 

For the most part, this isn't panic yet. This is the best planning that can happen when you are already stuck behind the 8 ball so to say.

Panic is what happens when you drop a loved one off at the hospital, and have no clue if you'll ever see them again...because you aren't allowed to go in. 

University of Michigan health systems, which is a city in itself, is expecting to exceed capacity between the 10th and the 21st of April. Peak load isn't expected until May. All elective procedures are cancelled.


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## anachronism

I would ask one question. 

How does testing change the mortality rate? Something nobody can give a good answer to.


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## FrugalRefiner

If someone is tested, and found to be positive, they can be quarantined so they don't infect others. Many people who are infected have no symptoms, so they go about their lives infecting others, who may develop symptoms and eventually die. That affects overall mortality. Is that a good answer?

Dave


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## anachronism

It's certainly an answer Dave. 

Testing for cancer doesn't alter the death rate from cancer.


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## FrugalRefiner

Cancer isn't contagious.

There are two kinds of mortality rates. One is a percentage of those who are infected who die. The other is the overall number of people who die. Testing can change both. As I stated above, if those who test positive avoid further contact till they are no longer contagious, it can lower the overall mortality, i.e., the overall number of people who die.

At the very least, it "flattens the curve", helping to keep the healthcare system from being overwhelmed to the point where people die unnecessarily simply because there are not enough hospital beds, ventilators, medications, etc. to provide for everyone all at once. If a hospital can only provide care for 100 people at a time, and 200 show up all at once, a lot will die. If the same 200 trickle in over an extended period, many of those who presented early will have recovered and been discharged, freeing beds, equipment, etc. for those who present later.

And that can affect the percentage of those infected who die.

Even with cancer, testing can change the mortality rates. When it is detected early, it may be treatable, and the patient may not die. If there is no testing, the cancer progresses unchecked and the patient is almost sure to die. Overall mortality increases as well as mortality rate as a percentage of cancer sufferers.

Dave


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## g_axelsson

stella polaris said:


> Good points Göran.
> 
> Here you can see the definition of a Pandemic.
> https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/basics/about.html
> 
> According to this US do not have one. The mortality is to low on healty people.
> 
> As I mentioned before WHO did step away from this definition (scientific and world wide accepted) and declared a pandemic, even if not fulfilling the scientific definition. This is bad science.. To be a pandemic healty people should run a serious risk if getting the virus. So is not the case. These people i refuse to see as "experts". An Expert follows scientific definitions.
> 
> If you read a little more you find that they respond to a pandemic declared by WHO. They them self do not think it is one. They just respond to WHO that declared the pandemic without support of the definition of a pandemic.
> 
> Edit: All Corona viruses i think belong to the flu group



No, the corona virus group is not closely related to the flu virus group.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus (SARS, MERS, COVID-19...)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orthomyxoviridae (Influenzavirus A, B, C, D...)

I checked the link but it was a page discussing the difference between a pandemic flu and seasonal flu. Can you cite the definition?

I couldn't find a strict scientific definition of pandemic with a casual search, but I found this definition that explains it quite good.
https://www.livescience.com/pandemic.html

But seriously, what difference does it make if it is an epidemic that spread from China to Italy, Spain and USA along with the rest of the world or a pandemic. People are still dying from it.

Göran


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## g_axelsson

Testing does work. If you know what a person is suffering from you can give them better care and their survival chances are better.

Testing also lets us quarantine people that are contagious so the ones still healthy doesn't get infected.

There are a number of countries that have done a lot of testing, at the airport, hunting down contacts, preventive quarantine... Look at South Korea, Taiwan and Iceland. That is three countries that have done a lot of testing.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

I'm really surprised to see that there are people who don't think testing is vital on a forum where nearly every second post contains the word stannous. :wink: 

Keep safe!

Göran


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## Yggdrasil

I don't know the current strict scientific definitions, but as you see in my previous post.

The original meaning and the definition in Merriam webster encyclopedia: 
that it is something affecting "pan = all" "demos= people", in other words, 
something that affects us all, which in the modern world means globally.

There is nothing to say in these definitions regards danger, deadliness or other attributes.

The bad thing with *Covid19 in other words SARS COV2*, is that there has been little previous spread, 
so the inherent immunological resistance that the general populous has against the ordinary flu (A,B,C...) do not exist yet. 
The "good" thing is that it may not be that deadly, at least not yet, time will show.

And redarding the testing: 
Exstensive testing in itself do not contribute in any direction, but how you use the information from the testing is. When you separate the contageous individs from the vulnerable, you may affect the course of the disease.

And of course testing for cancer may have effect, it may pick it up early enough to be treatable :wink:

*
EDIT*
Gørans post arrived during my writing this post, so it is not a comment to the post above this


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## anachronism

I will come back with a proper answer to all of you when I've got time however my father is a retired Doctor of nearly 40 years.

He says that testing for cancer does absolutely nothing for the cure rate. It also makes a mess of the figures because in many cases people are being told they have cancer when they have pre cancerous lumps that would normally have been redissolved back into the body in the natural course of time. Then they are "cured" of this which distorts the survival rates too.


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## Yggdrasil

That part is as all other things in the world, not entirely black or white  
The numbers are probably open for interpreting here as everywhere else.
But early detection increases the chanses of survival.
There are still things that indicates that many of the cancers that are detected, 
would have been taken care of by the body itself.


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## anachronism

Thanks Ygg

Dave and Goran in many many ways I agree with both of you. Test test test. However!!

Relevant testing is what is required. The same as we do with refining Goran - the tests have to be relevant. Testing whether people have it or not is in many peoples' opinion and mine included mostly irrelevant until backed up with tests to show whether or not people have HAD the infection. 

In the case of testing for presence and not immunity you test a person for the presence of the infection and if positive you have a protocol that means the person is isolated from everyone until the infection is deemed to be cleared. Potentially a huge amount of work, intensive labour and a major upheaval because then you have to include everyone they "touched" in that quarantine.

In the case of additional antibody testing you can then test all that person's house partners and work partners to see if they have had it. And if they have- your work becomes a lot less because those who have had it can resume life as normal.

So without this other test we are completely guessing and in effect "refining" without knowing half the picture. 

The other thing this additional test will do is present the true figures as to 1. Infection rate. 2. Mortality. I'm not entirely sure that some people high up would be overly enamoured with finding out that this is in fact no worse than seasonal Flu. Especially after the panic they have engendered. 

This is going to be like the global warming scenario where people who don't agree with the narrative will be marginalised and discredited. All to save face. 

As a doctor wrote in an article recently. The emperor still has no clothes. 8) 8) 

I like this debate.It's how they should be. 

Jon


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## anachronism

In fact here is an update hot off the press. 

The double tests arrive in the UK next week. 98% effective for both current and historical infection. 

One of my staff pulled some strings and bought us 25 tests for a total of £144. So things are moving forwards.


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## snoman701

anachronism said:


> The other thing this additional test will do is present the true figures as to 1. Infection rate. 2. Mortality. I'm not entirely sure that some people high up would be overly enamoured with finding out that this is in fact no worse than seasonal Flu. Especially after the panic they have engendered.



This isn't the flu.

It doesn't matter if the death rate is only as bad as the seasonal flu.

Because the seasonal flu is still out there getting people sick. This didn't magically take it's place. 

It wouldn't matter if it were a particularly bad strain of H1N1. 

What matters is that this novel infection has *overwhelmed our capacity to care for the sick and dying*.

Over here, if you go to the ER, you go in without family. If you die, you die without your loved ones present, without the ability to say goodbye. And it doesn't matter if you are going in for a heart attack, or suspected covid right now. That's the policy. 

People could positively impact this, if they simply stay at home. 

Why is this so hard to understand. It's not panic, it's good public health.


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## anachronism

I don't think for one minute that people's individual worries are anything to turn ones' nose up at.

When I refer to panic, I refer to the hysteria with which the media presenting the data. That alone is causing more stress and worry to many people than the disease itself.


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## UncleBenBen

anachronism said:


> When I refer to panic, I refer to the hysteria with which the media presenting the data. That alone is causing more stress and worry to many people than the disease itself.



Yep. Indeed it is. :roll: :?


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## Shark

anachronism said:


> I don't think for one minute that people's individual worries are anything to turn ones' nose up at.
> 
> When I refer to panic, I refer to the hysteria with which the media presenting the data. That alone is causing more stress and worry to many people than the disease itself.



I agree, the hysteria the media is causing is outrageous. It should be criminal as well. Depending on where we get our information determines what that information is. Once source here, gives a list of recent changes made by our governor, another gives a list that does not match the others list. As well, this facebook garbage is complicating matters even more by posting useless information on taking care of our self that medical web sights such as WHO and the CDC are saying will not work. Enough.................


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## snoman701

anachronism said:


> I don't think for one minute that people's individual worries are anything to turn ones' nose up at.
> 
> When I refer to panic, I refer to the hysteria with which the media presenting the data. That alone is causing more stress and worry to many people than the disease itself.



i try not to pay attention...and i'm not one to really let media present data to me. a couple college courses that focus mostly on data analysis and one grows sick of having people explain what numbers mean

who am i kidding, i don't usually find out about news until it becomes a meme on facebook


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## snoman701

anachronism said:


> I will come back with a proper answer to all of you when I've got time however my father is a retired Doctor of nearly 40 years.
> 
> He says that testing for cancer does absolutely nothing for the cure rate. It also makes a mess of the figures because in many cases people are being told they have cancer when they have pre cancerous lumps that would normally have been redissolved back into the body in the natural course of time. Then they are "cured" of this which distorts the survival rates too.


So first of all, I'm very academic in my testing. I like to know what it is we are dealing with. I think the clinician is always more successful with appropriate diagnostics. 

I never saw it first hand with medicine until my daughter had a very good pediatrician who always wanted to run a CBC when she came in with the common cold, which was completely uncommon to me. My doctors always just threw antibiotics at it. She wanted to see a left shift before she used antibiotics, and generalized low white blood cell count and a fever, she sent you home with nothing but orders to treat the fever and report back if things don't improve. 

I've pushed to find more clinicians like her. 

I'd really like to understand your dad's opinion a bit more here.

Because your description of his opinion, in my opinion, distorts truth quite a bit, and I imagine it is because you are generalizing a very specific opinion. 

I imagine you are describing blood antigen tests, not the biopsy of masses. I imagine that because at any given point, we may very well have a cancerous mass, or precancerous cells, though they are largely undetected because they are not pathogenic. 

Because very simply, by the time a mass is large enough to be detected by normal screening, it's pretty unlikely the body is going to take care of it itself. Reabsorption is common enough in testicular cancer (though still not overly common), and my guess is that the commonality is because it's one of the easiest organs to screen very definitively for very small masses. So you'll end up with a small mass, then it shrinks by the time it's removed, or it disappears entirely. 

Tests like the PSA, have changed our understanding of cancer. What used to be treated aggressively is now biopsied and monitored to ensure it's slow growing. 

At the same time, genetic testing for the BRCA gene in breast cancer is quite well accepted, and plenty of women choose to have full mastectomy based upon test results.


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## anachronism

Sure I'll get onto that in the morning Sno. Perverse as it may seems, all those points you mentioned are the ones he has talked about for a long time.


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## jimdoc

Event 201: There is NO WAY IN HELL that this is a coincidence

https://www.barnhardt.biz/2020/04/03/event-201-there-is-no-way-in-hell-that-this-is-a-coincidence/


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## nickvc

Jim I got sent a video from 2015 with Bill Gates predicting this very scenario, I’m not very good with tech so I can’t post the link as it’s on my phone and via WhatsApp but it shows this has been his view for many years not just the last 6 months.


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## stella polaris

anachronism said:


> I would ask one question.
> 
> How does testing change the mortality rate? Something nobody can give a good answer to.



Not realy sure what you ask for.

Testing is the same as sample and fire assay.

If a guy want to sell you a truckload of scrap you want to know what it is. You want a sample to analyse.
If the guy now give you a sample from his cherry picking box you might think the load contains a lot of gold. When in fact most of it is brown boards.

If you take a sample from a sick person, in a hospital, there are larger risk testing positive compared to testing a random person on the street. Why? Because he is sick. Just like the 486 processor in the cherry picking box. They are both in a place you can suspect to find higher concentrations.

The thing is to make a objective sampling, of the whole population, if you want the mortality rate for the disese. If you only test a sub-population you get the mortality rate for this group (hospitalised). Now many countries seems to test only sick people coming to healthcare. Sometimes it seems they test for corona virus as a group due to lack of strain tests. This way of testing gives a higher mortality rate compared to a objective sampling of the entire population.

The only way testing it self can change mortality rate is if a early treatment leads to better survivability. The one testing positive comes faster under treatment.


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## stella polaris

@Göran

You are correct. Corona viruses do not count to influenza viruses. They have same symptom and the same cause of death, pneumonia, but belong to two diffrent groups of viruses. 

Was trying to find the definition of pandemic yesterday. It was supprisingly difficult. Did not find any that could be used without risk to lie. My own memory is 35 years old and fading. I have a figure of 10 % mortality of infected in the head but I can not find a verification to it.

Of course the Universtity libary is closed, due to corona, so no information can be obtained there.

In order to get some reliable figures deaths of pneumonia should be compared from previous years to this year. If a significant increase then Corona makes an impact. If not we have an overreaction.

This far i have seen no corona figures fulfilling basic scientific demands. Material and methods are missing. The only idea you can get from them is the mortality rate of hospitalised victims. Even that figure is uncertain due to too many unknown factors.


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## anachronism

stella polaris said:


> This far i have seen no corona figures fulfilling basic scientific demands. Material and methods are missing. The only idea you can get from them is the mortality rate of hospitalised victims. *Even that figure is uncertain due to too many unknown factors.*



Very true. For one you would need to know how many of the hospitalised victims were brought into hospital with Coronavirus symptoms and how many were already hospitalised for other reasons and caught the virus whilst there. 

The second case is very likely, also implying that the health workers have already caught and had the disease, and this makes your head hurt because it opens up a whole host of other factors to consider. For example if true then the infection rate is far higher than expected already, which calls into question the real death rate and so on. Down and down the rabbit hole we go. 8) 8)


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## stella polaris

https://southfront.org/real-number-of-confirmed-covid-19-cases-in-italy-could-be-50000000/


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## snoman701

jimdoc said:


> Event 201: There is NO WAY IN HELL that this is a coincidence
> 
> https://www.barnhardt.biz/2020/04/03/event-201-there-is-no-way-in-hell-that-this-is-a-coincidence/



This has been expected for quite some time. It's been on the radar of most large financial firms risk mitigation teams for decades. 

We've had quite a few "almost pandemics"...it was just a matter of time before one was contagious before symptoms showed up. Just be happy it's virulence is relatively mild.


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## anachronism

Hi guys 

Apologies for the delay I've been too busy to do this properly and frankly it warranted a decent response rather than one that was thrown together quickly. I appreciate that it's an emotive topics for which we all have our individual views so the use for studies rather than opinion was necessary. 

In all fairness I thought that having a father who was a Doctor and who had some pretty strong opinions on the fallacies of modern day health care would be a hindrance to turning up fact based evidence rather than if, buts, and maybes. As I began to research the assertion I made with regards to it not saving lives I was surprised that things had moved on so far in this area and that proper studies had been carried out. 

A search into overdiagnosis, and the benefits of screening brought up much data. The over riding point was that whilst it can have benefits it has major drawbacks. In the case of certain testing it has been shown to save no lives compared with not testing/screening, whilst causing upset, stress and pain for people who are over diagnosed. 

Cancer Research UK is one of the largest non profit organisations looking into the subject. There are many other reports available using the keywords I mentioned above however let's take one particular graphic (The link for the reporting will be below.)


https://scienceblog.cancerresearchuk.org/2018/03/06/why-a-one-off-psa-test-for-prostate-cancer-is-doing-men-more-harm-than-good/

Also of note is the following:

https://scienceblog.cancerresearchuk.org/2018/03/06/overdiagnosis-when-finding-cancer-can-do-more-harm-than-good/

This relates to breast screening. 

I appreciate that it's easy to look at a topic such as this and see information to which one doesn't subscribe, and then discount it out of hand. I would strongly recommend that if you have time, you do pull reports up and see for yourself. 

Asymptomatic testing/screening does not save lives. 

Respectfully

Jon


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## kurtak

The apocalypse has arrived - the sky is falling - & Trump is the Anti Christ :shock: :twisted: :roll: :lol: :mrgreen:

The bad news is that after 47 - 48 years of HEAVY smoking, drinking etc. etc. etc. I am in the "high" risk category - if I get this thing I figure there is about a 70% (or more) "chance" it "could" kill me

The good news is that the county I live in is about 4,500 square miles (so about 67 miles per side of a square) with a population of about 7,500 people so about 1.6 people per square mile (talk about social distancing) :shock: :lol: :mrgreen: 

We have only had one confirmed case of covid 19 here in Grant county - that was confirmed a month (or more) ago - he lived alone out in the country - when he got sick he went to a hospital in another county - they figure he got it at a casino in another county - after a month (or more) there have been no other case's here

So - as long as people - by "order" of the governor - stay at home - in their high populated area's - I figure my chance's of getting this thing are between zero to maybe 10% :mrgreen: 

Living 2 hours from (which "most people can't even imagine) from a WalMart, Cosco, etc. etc. was a good choice to "social distance" my self over two years ago now :mrgreen: 

It's been interesting watching all that is going on "out there" - while here life - for the most part - is going on as normal --- about the only thing that has changed here is that by order of the governor the bars & restaurants have been restricted to delivery &/or carry out only - so other then going to my favorite local bar & grill every night after work not much has changed here & life is good (as it was before all of this) :lol: 8) :mrgreen: 

Kurt


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## snoman701

anachronism said:


> Asymptomatic testing/screening does not save lives.



For prostate cancer, correct. Which was my point above. 

It took 50 years of asymptomatic testing for this to really come to light. 

But for breast cancer, it's completely different. 



> Research has shown that for each woman whose life is saved through breast cancer screening, around three will be diagnosed with a breast cancer that would have never caused harm or death.



For breast cancer, it increases 5 year median survival by 6% in diagnosed cases. 

Ask those three women if they are willing to have a positive diagnosis so that a fourth woman may continue to live. They'll be fine with it. 

For colon cancer, I'd imagine it's much higher yet, not to mention it's a heck of a lot less invasive to have a polyp removed than a piece of bowel.


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## anachronism

Yep. You're correct. 

I suppose the question at that point is whether it's satisfactory to ruin three womens' lives to save one other. That one's higher than my pay grade, and I'm not sure the three women would be so happy in all cases.


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## Shark

Testing is only as good as the person doing the testing. 

I saw seven doctors (?) over 15 months trying to find out why I kept having headaches and passing out. Not a single one diagnosed a carotid artery that was 100% blocked. Not to mention the the other one that was only operating at 2 to 3 percent of capacity. Yes, 98% blocked. Seems they also missed the three around my heart as well that were dead, plus another in my hip that was completely blocked. The best they could come up with was my diabetes test's were wrong when it said for the third time that I was not diabetic. The last three did diagnose me with strep throat which ended up being a paralyzed vocal chord that is still a problem. That was from the TOP (?) seven doctors in our county. Needless to say I went elsewhere, but that is obvious as I am still alive. Tests are only as good as the people testing you. Make sure you go to the right places for testing.


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## anachronism

Couldn't agree more Shark. I'm glad you're still here cos you're fun to be around. 8) 8) 

Jon


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## stella polaris

kurtak said:


> The bad news is that after 47 - 48 years of HEAVY smoking, drinking etc. etc. etc. I am in the "high" risk category - if I get this thing I figure there is about a 70% (or more) "chance" it "could" kill me



Time for a lifestyle change.

No more Beer, Wiskey or cigarettes.

Start with wet tobacco. Chewing tobacco or snus . Then i recommend caipirinha due to its high C-vitamine. Gin and tonic due to its Quinine as i mentioned before. If you then start to walk to the mailbox instead of taking the car your chances improves a lot.  

BR
Home made doctor


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## kurtak

This morning I guess I need to apologize to the members of the forum for my post of yesterday as I received a PM informing me that I was breaking forum rules by posting the following political statement

(The apocalypse has arrived - the sky is falling - & Trump is the Anti Christ) --- (with icons following)

Politics (&/or religion) did not even cross my mind when I posted that - It was simply (in a twisted sort of way) my attempt at a bit of humor/joke considering the "horrible" circumstances taking place "around the world" as a result of this virus --- (hence all the icons at the end of the statement)

So - with my apology :!: --- I ask that members NOT allow that statement to act as an open door to further political &/or religious comments that would take the thread off the rails to a political/religious discussion/debate

Also - I was told that the rest of my post had a tone of trivializing the situation --- If anyone else feels that my post trivialized what they are going though - I AM TRULY SORRY --- as that to was MOST certainly not my intent

As I sit here & watch the news - there is NO question that MANY around the world are going through a VERY horrible thing & for any of you that happen to live in harder hit places my heart TRULY goes out to you & I can only hope that you fair well through it all

My point was that as much as some places have IN FACT been hit very hard by this virus --- other places are not feeling this pain - (the following is not meant to be a political statement - IN ANY WAY) but the truth is that THANKS to our elected officials - who are often divided on issue's - they have actually managed to come together on this matter to slow/lessen/control the spread of this horrible thing

The result of this amazing "working together" I am watching is that I am not alone in being "some what" insulated from this

The fact is - that (at least here in the US) through isolation (shut down of the ENTIRE country) we are seeing a larger part of the country experiencing insulation rather then "run away"

Example; - it's not just here where I live - but in fact the entire state of Oregon has relatively LOW numbers concerning case's &/or death's considering we are right between two much hotter states (California & Washington) & as well most if not all the (near) states to the east are having relatively low numbers 

So as much as it is true that some hot spots are experiencing the worst of it - it is also true that there is much to be thankful for which in turn should give us much to hope for

So - if I offended in ANY way those that may be closer to some of the hotter spots I TRULY apologize for posting in a way to offend - it was not my intent - my heart TRULY goes out to you & with MUCH hope I hope you fair well through this

Kurt


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## anachronism

I found it amusing and self deprecating Kurt. 8) 8)


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## snoman701

I think that your post would have been fine without the political comment.

If anything can take an otherwise nice post about the advantages of living in the back woods of Oregon and make them polarizing, it's our current political climate. 

I live in the middle of a corn field...but that doesn't make me too comfortable, since before this, I made the drive in to metro Detroit almost daily. Quite a few of us do it. We are lagging behind the curve quite a bit, but the combination of quite a few people like me, and slow testing and zero contact tracing behind done...it's going to become a problem. 

What you really have to hope, is that if your area starts seeing positive results, you have some sort of local contract trace studies done. Otherwise it only takes one person who made the trip in to walmart.


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## patnor1011

This situation is turning people plain crazy. 
We have an affair in Ireland right now as one of the big food companies brought planeload of fruit pickers from Bulgaria. They were health screened before they come and will have to stay 14 days in quarantine before they start working. Local patriots and nationalists are outraged that these jobs were not offered to "our" people only to find out that the company actually advertised 900 jobs and got 42 responses from which 28 were from other EU and non EU nationals currently residing in Ireland. So they decided to be outraged by the company not following social distancing by cramming people in aircraft when we should be locked down. 
They do not want to see that there are daily flights to and from Ireland with Germany, UK, France....
Pure comedy central considering that government is paying everyone who lost work 350 euro a week to sit in a home not to mention that public servants who are out of the job are on full pay. 
We are trying to find cleaners for 3 weeks straight and nobody wants that job. Plenty of people called but asked for off the book, money in hand scenario so they can keep government handout too. 
I thought I have seen it all.


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## galenrog

Human nature. A tiny minority want liberty, and are willing to accept the accompanying responsibility and risks. The overwhelming majority simply want to be taken care of, regardless of who does it, or how. Their goal is reward with no responsibility or risk. 

Time for more coffee.


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## butcher

Whats is all this government's paper being printed and given to people to stay Home (without toilet paper) because they cannot use the toilet at work and have to use it at home?

What effect will this have on our ability to find for more groceries off of the empty shelves, or the rising prices rising cost of good transportation or production, price-gouging because it is a good excuse or the limit and control of what you can purchase?

And now because not as many people eat out or away from home, or at work, but now need to go to the stores more often and buy more supplies for the home they normally do not need while working, and all of these people going to town and to the stores, and all at once in big crowds, because they all got a government check or newly printed paper in the mail hot off the press, waiting in long lines in crowds around the store or at a checkout line waiting for the place to get scrubbed down before they can scan.

Groups of people in town and stores. like I have never seen, groups testing their luck to hopefully get the groceries they need to stay home and still eat and use the toilet paper (that is if they could find any at the three stores they do not normally shop at had any, because the store you bought supplies at for the last 30 years has their shelve empty., or they only have half the things you normally get.

What is this all doing to our economy, our future, the gold, our ability to continue? Our government's ability to continue printing this paper and keeping the smokescreens going.


The government should be printing toilet paper and putting people back to work.

Well-- Boy's looks like its gonna be a hell of a ride, tie-down yer hats, sit it back easy down in the saddle, hold onto them thar reins, No fear but we Ain't seen nothing yet.


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## stella polaris

butcher said:


> What effect will this have on our ability to find for more groceries off of the empty shelves, or the rising prices rising cost of good transportation or production, price-gouging because it is a good excuse or the limit and control of what you can purchase?
> 
> And now because not as many people eat out or away from home, or at work, but now need to go to the stores more often and buy more supplies for the home they normally do not need while working, and all of these people going to town and to the stores, and all at once in big crowds, because they all got a government check or newly printed paper in the mail hot off the press, waiting in long lines in crowds around the store or at a checkout line waiting for the place to get scrubbed down before they can scan.
> 
> Groups of people in town and stores. like I have never seen, groups testing their luck to hopefully get the groceries they need to stay home and still eat and use the toilet paper (that is if they could find any at the three stores they do not normally shop at had any, because the store you bought supplies at for the last 30 years has their shelve empty., or they only have half the things you normally get.



It is called just in time system. They know how much they will sell and have no storage. It should go directly from the truck to the shelf. Now we can see that the system is not that flexible. But they will most probably adjust to the new situation. Then the Corona hysteria will end. But at that moment you will not be able to get in to you store due to all unsold toilet paper. 

I predict a very low toilet paper price 1-3 months after the hysteria have gone. I can thereby not recommend to invest in toilet paper. It is a crap paper.


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## acpeacemaker

I got a notification Monday that Texas declared a spike of 8200+ new cases. Saying they opened the gates or jumped the gun too soon....

Right now we live on base in Ft Bliss. Last week they lifted the travel ban which meant the soldiers could travel up to 250 miles without clearance and over 250 with a sign off.

Ft Bliss was on complete lockdown with only soldiers or family that lived on base to be permitted with a 10pm curfew.

Last week they said there were 3 cases of covid on base but weren't very clear in which company or what sector of the base. Today my wife came home and said someone that lived in the barracks may have it. If their tests came back positive the whole barracks would go in quarantine. But since all of them work in different companies the whole base would be shut down again. Basically everyone will be staying at home...again...yippee.... To make it a really swell day it was a cool 107° out


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