# "Is gold on the verge of breaking out?"



## cosmetal (Jan 21, 2018)

Interesting read from MarketWatch -

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-gold-on-the-verge-of-breaking-out-2018-01-20-151031412

James


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## anachronism (Jan 21, 2018)

There's an awful lot of market influencing and manipulation going on right now James. The establishment is terrified as the amount of money "normal" people are making on crypto currency because it takes the old system of financial control away from the banks and allows the common man to make money independently of the established banking system. 

When they are resorting to using gold as a lever against this, bearing in mind how the gold price has been artificially restricted it shows the depths of their concern.


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## Palladium (Jan 21, 2018)

I don't know if it will go up or down, but i have noticed an increase in my customers returning more frequent and with larger lot sizes as the price has risen! My profits are tied to a 10% profit margin and 10% of $1500 is a lot better than 10% of $1100.


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## cosmetal (Jan 21, 2018)

anachronism said:


> There's an awful lot of market influencing and manipulation going on right now James. The establishment is terrified as the amount of money "normal" people are making on crypto currency because it takes the old system of financial control away from the banks and allows the common man to make money independently of the established banking system.
> 
> When they are resorting to using gold as a lever against this, bearing in mind how the gold price has been artificially restricted it shows the depths of their concern.



Eventually, this market (DJIA) will correct itself. When it does, a mere 5% correction means a loss of 1300 points - a healthy correction of 10% is 2600 points. When this starts, gold will increase further in its value and rate of advancement.

James


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## goldsilverpro (Jan 21, 2018)

Back it the 70s, all the gurus were predicting $1000 gold within 2 or 3 years. It did get to $1000, but it took over 30 years, When I lived in Hong Kong in the mid 70s, I asked a very knowledgeable Chinese PM broker the same question you asked. He said that there were only 2 experts in the world on this subject. One thought it would go up and the other one thought it would go down.


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## niks neims (Jan 22, 2018)

If BTC falls then gold will go up, it is simple arithmetics, provided all of the other factors are staying the same.... Of course they never do, that and questions as to for how long or how high the gold price will rise - that is where it gets complicated... But, as I strongly believe that BTC is hugely overvaluated and due for a market crash, I myself am shure that we will see a significant rise in gold price this year...

Artūrs


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## g_axelsson (Jan 22, 2018)

I don't see the correlation between BTC and gold? So now when BTC have soared to extreme highs the gold have ... risen too.

Even with the extreme growth of BTC, the current valuation of all gold is 40 times higher that the current valuation of all BTC.

In my view bitcoins is a bubble with no other security than the belief in it by it's users. For most paper money at least it is coupled to a working economy by loans, securities and so on. And gold is coupled to the physical metal.
I'm just waiting for the bitcoin market to implode.

As now I think the most insightful people in the gold market is the two experts GSP cited, I think they are spot on.

So how does refineries secure against a fluctuating price? Either buy / sell gold in paper form to balance the internal stocks, or pay out based on the spot price when they sell the gold.

Göran


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## nickvc (Jan 22, 2018)

g_axelsson said:


> I don't see the correlation between BTC and gold? So now when BTC have soared to extreme highs the gold have ... risen too.
> 
> Even with the extreme growth of BTC, the current valuation of all gold is 40 times higher that the current valuation of all BTC.
> 
> ...




Göran the big refiners sell as they buy using the market to do this, when I worked for JM we reported all buying to the director while the sales were easier as they were on computer so could be calculated easily, all branches then reported the figures to JM Bank who fix the price, in other words they rarely gamble on the price.


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## niks neims (Jan 22, 2018)

g_axelsson said:


> I don't see the correlation between BTC and gold? So now when BTC have soared to extreme highs the gold have ... risen too.



BTC currently represent about 200 trillion euros of attributed value to them, when the market will eventually crash, some of that value will have to go in to other placeholders, be it stocks, currencies or any other investment tools like gold. That is actually what "the crash" IS - price of any other currencies dramatically rising compared to BTC, of course everything will rise, dollar, euro, microsoft stocks, silver, gold, realty etc. The real question is, when BTC will be gone, how will gold compare to euro, dollar etc. I for one think it will be up compared to today because there will be left a lot of sore taste regarding volatile investments, I would think market would favor more tradional, safer alternatives - gold being the best of them all... Of course there is a large chance that shock to the system is going to burst the "paper gold" bubble as well, but that is just more good news for "physical gold" guys like most of us...

Only way for gold not to rise when and if BTC is going away is if some other crypto-currencies takes over BTC 200 trillion market, slowly and steadely. But the price of BTC being this high and tensions wound up this tight I just don`t see calm transition happening...

Artūrs


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## g_axelsson (Jan 22, 2018)

niks neims said:


> g_axelsson said:
> 
> 
> > I don't see the correlation between BTC and gold? So now when BTC have soared to extreme highs the gold have ... risen too.
> ...


That is where you are wrong. The cash is already gone. If BTC would become worthless, ie no one is buying and anyone that want to sell have to do in at lower prices... for every BTC that is sold at a lower level someone has to free cash to buy BTC while the one that sells BTC and receives dollars put the dollars into something. Except for slight variations in where the dollar comes from and goes to it more or less levels out.

If BTC would become worthless over night (ie a crash) the 200 trillion euros of "value" is just gone, it will not be moved into gold or stocks, it's just gone. It has already left the system.

If you start a Neims-coin with a 1000 NMC :wink: and then sell me one for a dollar that means I have to sell four P4 CPU:s to get a dollar which I use to buy a NMC from you. Now we have a 1000 dollar value attributed to NMC while you have a dollar and can buy gold for it... maybe a few mg gold bar.
If the market for NMC then crash, ie you don't want to buy back my NMC and no one else want to buy a NMC for a dollar... well I found a sucker and sold it to him for a cent then the value attributed suddenly went to 10 dollar and the other 990 dollars just vanished. It was never a value, just a valuation.
That is where I see the BTC market today, it's hugely over valuated, have no connection to any substantial values like physical gold, stocks or property. There is nothing to stop a free fall and the number of 200 trillion euros is just a play with numbers.

Göran


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## cosmetal (Jan 22, 2018)

g_axelsson said:


> niks neims said:
> 
> 
> > g_axelsson said:
> ...



Another MarketWatch article - "Goldman issues a warning on bitcoin -- and an even bigger warning on Ethereum" https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bitcoin-bubble-now-dwarfs-tulips-and-dot-com-stocks-goldman-warns-2018-01-22

Disses Bitcoin but they are liking the blockchain technology - *"Ultimately, it concluded that bitcoin is too volatile to function as a store of value, and too inefficient to replace traditional currencies as a means of transferring value. However, it suggested cryptocurrencies could be a viable alternative in frontier markets, where traditional services of money are inadequately supplied.*"

Also,

*“We think the concept of a digital currency that leverages the blockchain technology is viable given the benefits it could provide: ease of execution globally, lower transaction costs, reduction of correction since all transactions could be traced, safety of ownership, and so on,” Goldman wrote. “But Bitcoin does not provide any of these qualities.”*

I like the elegant solution - gold. You can mine it in ewaste, Venezuela or your drinking water. Show me a bitcoin, or another other cyber-currency's, molecule and I might think about mining it then.

James


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## nickvc (Jan 23, 2018)

I know this thread was originally about gold so to follow that line why are crypto currencies any different from all those bits of paper or emails allotting amounts of gold that in reality do not exist, if all the holders of those bits of paper etc asked for physical delivery the whole system would collapse and the price of physical gold would rocket, yet they still sell bits of paper etc, perhaps the worlds biggest Ponzi scheme but deemed fine because the banks are running it. The point with crypto currencies is that at the moment the banks are not in charge, I wonder why they are so against it? :shock:


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## g_axelsson (Jan 23, 2018)

I always hear "There is more gold in paper than exists physically", is there any numbers to prove that?

I guess those that knows keeps it for them selves. There might be bubbles out there but I don't think there exists a systematic one that spans all across the globe. It also depends on how the papers are written, there are many different types of economical instrument out there and this is maybe a thing for a broker to explain.

I don't think most of the economical instruments out there allow for physical delivery of the gold, it's more like a stock fund. In that case if it became known that there was a flaw in the system maybe people tries to sell their gold papers... but who would like to buy? In that case the price of "paper gold" would drop to a level where people think it is a reasonable gamble. And probably by association, the price on physical gold would also drop. It's all in the details.

Göran


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## anachronism (Jan 23, 2018)

cosmetal said:


> g_axelsson said:
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> 
> > niks neims said:
> ...



Well molecular or not, hypothetical or not, bank controlled or not, talking does nothing. It' mineable and my mining over the last three months just bought me a brand new Perkin Elmer PinAAcle 500. That's pretty hard currency results don't you think? 

You carry on debating chaps. 8) 8)


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## nickvc (Jan 23, 2018)

Göran just look how long it’s taken the US to repatriate the gold it held for Germany and France, there is a physical shortage but not a paper one.
As to crypto currencies I’m old school but I have seen and heard of people making serious money from it, is it going to last, who knows, but it’s just another fiat currency and only worth what it’s percieved as to what it’s worth, has any currency really got a value or just a percieved value because we accept it or should I say banks and governments, but it can and does go wrong, no fiat currency has ever survived from inception, so you can all decide what you trust, dollars, euros, pounds or crypto currencies, personally I’ll stick to physical ownership of PMs, they always have some value.


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## niks neims (Jan 23, 2018)

g_axelsson said:


> That is where you are wrong. The cash is already gone.




Maybe, but it is not quite what I meant. Still I might be mistaken, no matter, I`ll try to explain as I see it, who knows, maybe I will gain some new understanding myself 

So, macroeconomically, value of the gold today, partly represented by the spot price, the one we all see on the bottom of this page, is already adjusted downwards because of all of the BTC in the world. If there were NO bitcoins in the world the value and the purchasing power of gold would be greater. And it is true for anything and everything on earth, as soon as BTC gained universal acceptence, every currency in the world became cheaper and every purchase - more expensive... It didn`t happen overnight, but we all have felt it, through inflation, price changes etc. Ok, you`ll say that, because the spot price of gold is measured in USD and theoretically USD should have been devaluated proportionally, it doesn`t matter... to that I say: I still can buy less for my gold (or dollars!) than I could before BTC, so, there you go...Of course, if we want to look at the individual prices (and PPP), it gets very complicated very fast, but on a large scale it should hold true - GDP of the world basically stayed the same, no additional bread was baked or beer brewed, we just injected 200 000 000 000 000 euros worth of currency in to this, our little ,closed, system... On a national scale, it would be the same as if some country just started printing out additional paper money, we all know how well that usually goes... Because of course, BTC represents value, you can buy XRF apparatus or pizza with it... it`s just that said value is taken out from under every dollar, euro or nugget of gold... 

As I try to understand theoretical economics, I say to myself - nobody needs or wants money, really, there is no spot for money in the hierarchy of human needs, money is just a tool, a convieniet way to exchange values, means to an end, first to get the sugar, then to get the power, then to get the women...

Still no need to wallow in my non-buyers remorse, as I said before - if BTC truly is the best designed medium of value exchange, then it should stay and we all will be using it.

BUT if it will crash.... theoretically value of all of the currencies of the world will rise, you will be able to exchange your kg of gold for more food, goods, services or jobs of various kinds. That is what I meant and mistakenly labeled as "rising price". Because, of course, the real question is much more complicated - when BTC is good and gone, the dust have settled, how will price of the gold compare to the price of the dollar or the euro? It is only speculation, but, still, I must insist that it will "go up".
There are other reasons for it, but the main one is - as sceptical as I am towards BTC, eaven I do not believe that all of the poor souls, that think they have a piece of the 200kkkk EUR pie, will walk away with nothing. Most of the (((elite))) and lucky few regular Jons will have a chance to jump the ship in time - for arguments sake, lets say, 30% of the 200kkk EUR value can be liquidated before BTC value hits zero, that is still a pretty large chunk of money and it will have to go somewhere... some of it will stay in cash, some will get invested and some will go in to the PM market, I am 100% shure that when BTC market starts to crash we will see an increased demand for gold, followed by price correction.

Artūrs

Edit: The more I think about BTC the less I like it, it just now occurred to me that one of it`s biggest flaws is that, due to the decentralized nature of it, there is no way to institute trading halt...


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## Tzoax (Jan 23, 2018)

For those "few" lucky ones who made and saved couple of bitcoins (when btc price was low) - it is a one of the best financial things that could happen to them - they are all rich now. 

For those who want to invest today in btc hoping that price will go up - is just a risk where it looks more like gambling than a good way to save/earn money. 

For miners, it is too late for them now...they are already in it. They invested a lot of money to equipment for mining and it will be what will be.

I would not have anything against if somebody wants to pay me with btc (if we are in different country)...but for saving/earning money this system is not much reliable (to me).

And what about transaction fees...nobody is mentioning that. 

It surely is a btc fever today (like was gold fever) - at least it sounds good - you could "mine" the btc by doing nothing and maybe become a rich. It is just you need to invest in equipment again and again (because that system was made like that - is is harder and harder to mine btc). After one year you will need better equipment...and the price of your old one will be way down to sell. And if you don't want to invest any more - electric power consumption price is going to make you / or you will be in minus.

Anyway, good luck for all btc miners. And don't work too hard. :G  

Alex

This is a chart of btc price history.


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