# So what's driving the price of PGMs



## kurtak (Jan 13, 2019)

Ok - I am sure I am not the only one that has noticed the price of Pd & Rh 

I mean Pd has now passed that of gold & Rh is now about $1,000 over gold

Is there some kind of "demand" for catalyst (other then catalytic converters) or a "demand" for circuitry components (military, space, medical)

Something has to be driving the price other then just paper investment (like gold & silver)

:shock: :?: 

Kurt


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## Yggdrasil (Jan 13, 2019)

I'm curious about this too.

With respect to Rhodium, 
I guess the global volume is so low that a purchase from just a few big companies may "skyrocket" the price.
It has been very stable lately, with almost no movement in a week or so, some times.

Maybe some yet publicly unknown technology is on the verge of getting released, 
or even secret technologies we will not hear about for a decade or so ;-)

These metals has very versatile uses, inert, high temp and cathalythic as they are. 
Maybe other curious chemical or electrical properties too.


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## nickvc (Jan 14, 2019)

Well Pd was seen as a replacement for higher karat white golds and platinum for jewelry at one stage because it was much cheaper but that didn’t last long, if I remember correctly Russia sold a lot of their stocks of Pd some years ago so perhaps they are now stockpiling again, because PGMs are more industrial use metals rather than jewelry metals perhaps it’s pointing to an upturn in the world economy or as pointed out perhaps new technologies are driving the demand, I’m fairly certain that they are all rarer than gold which makes the platinum price a bit strange so perhaps it’s industrial uses are shrinking.


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## silversaddle1 (Jan 14, 2019)

This could explain why PCB prices have been going up recently. I thought Palladium was widely used in PCB's.


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## nickvc (Jan 14, 2019)

silversaddle1 said:


> This could explain why PCB prices have been going up recently. I thought Palladium was widely used in PCB's.



In western tech it’s only used in telecoms I think at the moment,in stuff from the eastern bloc it was widely used as they had plenty of it to use and at the time it was cheap compared to gold.


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## anachronism (Jan 14, 2019)

silversaddle1 said:


> This could explain why PCB prices have been going up recently. I thought Palladium was widely used in PCB's.



It's very rarely used in boards, and only certain types. 

Board prices will begin to tumble soon - a lot of people will get caught out by the dropping PM values.


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## g_axelsson (Jan 14, 2019)

Palladium is used both as a catalyst and as an active colloid to make an active layer on the substrate for electroless copper to adhere. Used in via holes and also for electroless nickel. The amount is so small that ENIG looks like a bloated gold layer in comparison. But on the other side, it is used in a lot of different places, so it is present in small amounts in most pcb:s... as I understand it.

Palladium is not used as a circuit board plating but can be found in trace amounts in tin solder where palladium plated components have been soldered on circuit boards. Especially on older wave soldered boards.

For example on palladium usage : http://jkem.se/technologies/

Göran


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## silversaddle1 (Jan 14, 2019)

anachronism said:


> silversaddle1 said:
> 
> 
> > This could explain why PCB prices have been going up recently. I thought Palladium was widely used in PCB's.
> ...


 We'll see. Kitco and many others are saying gold and silver to remain strong thru 2-19 with some jumps here and there. I'm sitting on over 10,000 pounds of sorted PCB, maybe more. I'm going to sell them in the spring, just don't want to mess with winter much.


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## niks neims (Jan 17, 2019)

anachronism said:


> dropping PM values



sage advice, based on solid foundation of thoroughly thoughtful arguments! Just look at the palladium ticker today - a disaster!


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## anachronism (Jan 17, 2019)

niks neims said:


> anachronism said:
> 
> 
> > dropping PM values
> ...



Obviously I worded it clumsily. By values I meant concentrations.


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## niks neims (Jan 17, 2019)

anachronism said:


> niks neims said:
> 
> 
> > anachronism said:
> ...



I kid, I kid, a loving joke, that`s all

I am willing to take some betting action, though:

What do you propose - how will change the spot price (by kitco, in USD, as shown in the ticker on the bottom of the page) of gold during next 6 months?


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## snoman701 (Jan 17, 2019)

No...he’s saying that boards have less and less pm value and the guys that have been making all their profit on the rich 90’s era boards are going to be hurting.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## anachronism (Jan 17, 2019)

It's a matter of perspective, volume and ongoing hard data. From refinery returns over time you can track what's going on with similar grades of product. Then again you're only going to get reliable data with lots of repeat loads. 

Nik you've alluded to me being "all mouth and no trousers" on a number of occasions so let's nail the perspective. Excuse the mess, we're not finished building the new plant but the central area pallets are all incoming kit for processing this month so far. Pallets of equipment to strip and pallets of boards/RAM/processors etc.


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## kurtak (Jan 17, 2019)

So back to my original question - what's driving the price of PGMs - Pd in particular 

I may be wrong - but it can't be just "paper investment" - there must be some "physical demand"

If it was driven by paper investment - investors would not be targeting just Pd on the speculation of rising PMs because if that was the case you would see gold & silver taking off as well

After all - gold & silver are the real metals that drive the metals market when speculation drive the market & gold & silver are not even close to keep pace with Pd

Pd has gone up $491 in the last 6 months & $170 in the last 30 days

By comparison - gold has only gone up $66 in last 6 months & $44 in last 30 days

So clearly (I believe) paper investment is not what is driving the price of PGMS (Pd in particular) other wise we would be seeing similar rising of prices of gold & silver

as of the time of this post - gold is down 10 cents - while Pd is up $57 --- if paper was driving this I would think we would also be seeing gold up BY A LOT :!: 

There must (I think) be some real physical demand for PGMs (Pd) :?: 

Kurt


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## anachronism (Jan 17, 2019)

Kurt - I gather that recently there have been developments with regards to alloying Pd - this many or may not expand the uses of the metal. 

Also if you look to who is producing most of the Pd these days and their ability to manipulate markets there may be some small explanantion there.

Personally I think it's market manipulation and manipulating Pd is far easier than gold.


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## niks neims (Jan 17, 2019)

anachronism said:


> It's a matter of perspective, volume and ongoing hard data. From refinery returns over time you can track what's going on with similar grades of product. Then again you're only going to get reliable data with lots of repeat loads.
> 
> Nik you've alluded to me being "all mouth and no trousers" on a number of occasions so let's nail the perspective. Excuse the mess, we're not finished building the new plant but the central area pallets are all incoming kit for processing this month so far. Pallets of equipment to strip and pallets of boards/RAM/processors etc. Building.JPG



Are you a custodian there so that m2 should impress me?

I`m joking of course - congratulations on your business going well, I definitely do envy your turnover 

Snoman spelled it out for me - It just touched a nerve before, when I perceived that you`re trying to sing the "predicting the future PM market changes" song in your trademark arrogant tune, sorry about that 

Back to the topic:
Look what uncle Vlad has to say about the Athena`s metal:
https://www.rt.com/business/449029-palladium-record-supply-demand/

So looks like it was my favorite neighbor to the east after all, they are always up to something


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## anachronism (Jan 17, 2019)

There's a distinction between arrogance and confidence. Arrogant person purposefully tries to make other people feel or look stupid to further an ego. Very often they have no knowledge themselves. A confident person is self aware and whilst they have more knowledge, they are both prepared to accept that they can be wrong and can treat others with respect. 

Jon

Edit: Kurt please accept my apologies for this thread derailment Sir. Sometimes some things just have to be said.


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## niks neims (Jan 17, 2019)

anachronism said:


> There's a distinction between arrogance and confidence. Arrogant person purposefully tries to make other people feel or look stupid to further an ego. Very often they have no knowledge themselves. A confident person is self aware and whilst they have more knowledge, they are both prepared to accept that they can be wrong and can treat others with respect.
> 
> Jon



touché


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## Lou (Jan 17, 2019)

Wow, high road Jon. By the way, I have basically the same exact pallet racking.



As for Pd pricing--part of it is the diesel effect. Pt is the big NOx abatement catalyst. After the VW scandal, Euro sentiment for diesel hit the wall in a bad way. Pt is still the king of the PGMs, despite Ir, Rh and Pd outstripping it. Ir, Rh more rare to be sure, harder to extract and refine to be sure, but ultimately platinum is the most useful of all of them.

I don't know what's driving Pd--perhaps it's the fact that people thing the Ruski's are out of it? I don't know. Silliness from my perspective. 

As far as platinum is concerned--I'm buy, buy, buy. Sooner or later, the silliness with palladium will end. As things change on this planet and people realize that point A-B travel requires not internal combustion but fuel cells, Rh and Pd are dead in the water. Pt will be king as we transition to a hydrogen-electric economy. Everyone is betting big on car companies like Tesla. Even the Big 3 automakers in the US are going electric/hybrid. To what end? It's not like the US electric grid (or anyone's, for that matter) could support even 50% adoption even if we all charged our vehicles at night.

Keep in mind that some configurations of fuel cells can "burn" ethanol and methanol. These are liquid fuels that can go into our existing distribution systems (gas/petrol stations) with very little modification. Hell, some of these can be made from CO2, platinum catalyst, water, and some heat. 

So my money is on platinum long term.


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## niks neims (Jan 18, 2019)

Lou said:


> As for Pd pricing--part of it is the diesel effect.



Seems strange, after so many public declarations about banning diesel engines all together (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_banning_fossil_fuel_vehicles).... based on that Pd price should rather go down than rise...

I will heed your advice regarding Pt, though ...

Btw what do you think about the long term future projections of silver price?


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## Lou (Jan 18, 2019)

With wider adoption of solar (cell) technology, more silver must be used.

Pt is predominant catalytic metal in NOx control for diesel. Diesel effect means negative sentiment towards (cleaner) diesel as public perception is that automakers have misled them as to “green” ness of their product; reflecting on the diesel tech as a whole.


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## anachronism (Jan 18, 2019)

Lou you mean Pd in cats not Pt correct?


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## Lou (Jan 18, 2019)

Pd is predominant in gasoline catalysts.

Each metal has a purpose for three way autocat.

Diesel is much more Pt reliant.

Pd is more common than Pt so supply side/mine issues...I don’t get it.


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## anachronism (Jan 18, 2019)

Yeh I hear ya.


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## cuchugold (Jan 23, 2019)

Three Kings were lost in the desert. Each King had 7 camels, with each camel carrying 7 bars of London good delivery 400 Oz ingots of Gold. After a few days the camels dropped to the floor, and eventually died. The Kings ate whatever they could off the camels, and the rest rotted and dried away in the desert Sun. The next day the 3 Kings drank the last drop of water from their water bags.

Two days later a lowly shepherd appeared in front of the almost dead 3 Kings. He had 2 bags of water. He traded all the gold from the 3 Kings for 1 bag of water. The shepherd also had an AK-47 to protect his newly acquired wealth.

As a bonus he told the 3 kings in which direction to walk. The 3 kings walked in this direction and found a river of water 400 feet away from where they made the trade with the shepherd.

The 3 kings spent the rest of their lives cursing the shepherd that saved their lives.

Translation: Supply and Demand.


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## DylanDownright84 (Aug 4, 2019)

What are your guy's thoughts on the countries that are buying up gold? Is it possible we are seeing the beginning of the end of the fiat currency? How would a return to the gold standard effect PM prices? I know theres alot of manipulation in the markets and don't even get me started on the fed. I've been wondering about this for quite some time. Without going off topic and into political matters. Do we have any economists among us? This really interests me. Thanks all!


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## Lino1406 (Aug 6, 2019)

Looks like palladium speculators raise hands these days - cannot support price above gold's. When gold is strong nobody can stop it. I'd like to mention that for the mined gold to cover 1/4 (only) of all paper money, the price should be over $3000 an ounce


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## goldenchild (Aug 7, 2019)

China. I hear that they are ramping up to make a whole lot of automobiles. Just something I heard though.


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## niks neims (Aug 8, 2019)

The rising gold prices (rising demand for gold) are definitely related to the underwhelming performance of bonds and other securities, lowering interest rates and increasing instability in global economics due to China vs. US trade wars... Gold currently is just so much more better alternative for investments... and I'd take a bet it's going to climb even higher than that - a welcome thing for most GRF users on one hand, but too bad that it could be coupled with lower industrial commodities prices (like copper) and eventually lead to global recession... well it's a circular process 

Regarding palladium - it still seems to me that recent Pd price spike was due to a massive speculation in the market and without artificial help Pd price leveled out/started sloping down relatively speaking....


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## DylanDownright84 (Aug 13, 2019)

Lino1406 said:


> Looks like palladium speculators raise hands these days - cannot support price above gold's. When gold is strong nobody can stop it. I'd like to mention that for the mined gold to cover 1/4 (only) of all paper money, the price should be over $3000 an ounce



Yes, gold will have to do a major accounting of all the fiat currency in existence. It's scary to think about, but as more and more countries dump the dollar as their reserve currency we're gonna see record numbers in gold and the growing pains that will come with the return of metals backed currency. And let's not forget that governments have confiscated gold from it citizens in the past. That in itself can worry some. I also believe silver will be on the launch pad in the near future as we've already seen it climbing even though its still ridiculously undervalued. Anyone else see the similarities in what's happening in the worlds current financial markets with ancient Rome? Debasing our currency, going off the bretton woods system, then completely off gold and now printing our currency into infinity. Could've swore this has happened in the past a few times, if only private bankers would stop rigging the "free market."


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## g_axelsson (Aug 27, 2019)

It is impossible to go back to a gold-backed currency now. Gold as basis for a currency became impossible a hundred years ago because industrialization let the economies grow at a rate that gold became a limiting factor. A small country could try but would create a currency that would fluctuate wildly with the international gold price, and a large country wouldn't find enough gold to back it's currency.

I've said it before and I'm saying it again. A modern currency is backed by the economy of the country. Gold is just a commodity, just as pork or orange juice is. You can turn currency into gold if you want, just that the rate might vary according to the current gold price.

I can't see any country even consider to create a gold backed currency without anything less than a total break down of society, and in that case we probably have a lot more pressing problems to deal with.

Göran


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