# Time for a new contest!



## MGH (May 27, 2021)

Hi all,

It's been a while since we had a contest. Figured it was my turn to sponsor.

Winner of this contest will receive the one ounce silver round pictured below. I'll send it, postage paid, to any US address. Sorry, everyone outside the US. Please feel free to engage in the contest for bragging rights.

Material:
71.70g of the material pictured below. The only information I have is that it came from a dentist, accumulated through the course of their work, brought to a jeweler, who agreed to purchase the gold therin after having it refined by me. Nobody involved provided any estimate on the gold content.

Contest rules and schedule:
- Guess the total amount of gold contained in the starting material.
- Make one guess, by posting publicly here in this thread, between now and Friday, 6/4/2021 at 8:00pm US Central Time.
- After the above time I will post a picture of the refined gold from this material which includes a visual size reference.
- Make one more guess, by posting publicly here in this thread, between the time of posting of the second picture and Friday 6/11/2021 at 8:00pm US Central Time.
- Each person's two guesses, valid according to the conditions above, will be averaged together, the second guess being weighted at two times the first.
- The closest such averaged, US-located guess to the actual fine gold content of the material, above or below, is the winner.
- Winner must supply a valid mailing address to me. PM is fine, and it will not be shared.
- Questions may be asked here in this thread. I may or may not answer, at my discretion. Most likely I will not provide more information as the contest has been designed intentionally as is.

Congratulations to the future winner! And thanks GRF!


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## Martijn (May 28, 2021)

For bragging rights then.. 6.48 grams.


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## Striker33 (May 28, 2021)

25g is my guess. Can’t wait to see the final yield :G :G :G :G


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## UncleBenBen (May 28, 2021)

Fun stuff MGH. One question. Is that a 1/4 inch grid in the photo of the dentists material?


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## Auful (May 28, 2021)

8.52 grams


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## MGH (May 29, 2021)

UncleBenBen said:


> Fun stuff MGH. One question. Is that a 1/4 inch grid in the photo of the dentists material?


It's a 5mm grid


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## AndyWilliams (May 29, 2021)

22 grams


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## MGH (Jun 2, 2021)

Only three US-based guess so far?

Reminder, you must submit one eligible guess *BEFORE* 6/4/21 at 8:00pm US Central Time *AND* one guess *AFTER* the second picture is posted. In fairness to those who have already entered their guesses, this is the final reminder.


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## jmdlcar (Jun 2, 2021)

15 grams


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## FrugalRefiner (Jun 2, 2021)

Thanks for providing the contest MGH! Been busy.

5 grams.

Dave


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## etack (Jun 2, 2021)

9.12

Eric


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## jmdlcar (Jun 2, 2021)

The Round someone will get I have a 1 ounce 999 Copper Round like it. I been looking for a 999 Silver Round like it so I would have them both. I also have the 1/4 and 1/2 999 Copper Rounds too.


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## snoman701 (Jun 2, 2021)

3.2 grams


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## etack (Jun 2, 2021)

snoman701 said:


> 3.2 grams



you know its an average bid high correct low lol :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: 

Eric


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## kurtak (Jun 3, 2021)

18 grams

Kurt


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## MGH (Jun 5, 2021)

Alright, first guesses are in. Here's a picture of the refined gold, on a watch glass, on top of notebook paper with 5mm grid lines.

Make your second guesses by Friday 6/11/21 at 8:00pm US Central Time. Remember the weighting of the second guess in the average if you want to alter your estimate!


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## FrugalRefiner (Jun 5, 2021)

Wow! That's a lot more than I would have expected from 71.70g of the material in the first picture!

Second guess is 25 grams.  

Dave


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## Martijn (Jun 5, 2021)

23.76


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## Martijn (Jun 5, 2021)

Grams that is :lol:


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## etack (Jun 6, 2021)

28.35g

Eric


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## kurtak (Jun 9, 2021)

MGH said:


> - Each person's two guesses, valid according to the conditions above, will be averaged together, the second guess being weighted at two times the first.



Please excuse my ignorance but I simply do not understand this part of the contest  

It's the - "being weighted at two times the first" - that I don't get :?: 

In other words - I have a first guess number - now I have a number in mind based on the second guess pic which I can certainly "average" between first guess number & second guess number

In other words - the first guess number is not the winning number - the second guess number is not the winning number - & the average between the first & second guess is not the winning number

How do I come up with the (winning) number that is "weighted" at two times the first guess  :?: 

Kurt


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## MGH (Jun 9, 2021)

Yes, I like to make things difficult sometimes  

Here's an example
First guess is 5g
After seeing the second picture, you want to increase your guess, so you guess 15g
Final calculated guess, with second guess weighted at two times the first is as follows:
(5 + 2(15))/(3) = 11.67

Essentially your second guess counts as two identical guesses in a total of three guesses. Just like to keep everyone on their toes.


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## snoman701 (Jun 9, 2021)

26.3


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## jmdlcar (Jun 9, 2021)

I'm not sure how to do this kind of math "(5 + 2(15))/(3) = 11.67" so I will have to think on this. Then I will have to this and post what my 2nd number might be.

I must be dumb when it this kind of math. Here is what I thought how it works 1st + 2nd / by 2 = average.


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## Auful (Jun 9, 2021)

based on the recent picture, my second guess is: 36.99


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## Martijn (Jun 9, 2021)

If you want to reach your second guess: just multiply that by 3, subtract your first guess, and divide that by two. 
Put that number here.


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## jmdlcar (Jun 9, 2021)

Martijn said:


> If you want to reach your second guess: just multiply that by 3, subtract your first guess, and divide that by two.
> Put that number here.



So if I don't want to change the 1st number that means my first number + second number will divide by 2? If that is right how will he know how to with the right number?


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## snoman701 (Jun 9, 2021)

(A + 2x)/3 = Total
3*total = A + 2x
3*total - A = 2x
x=(3*total-A)/2

Where x is what your second guess should be, when A is your first guess and Total is what you actually think is there.


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## FrugalRefiner (Jun 9, 2021)

I just guessed!  :lol: 

Thanks MGH for the contest!

Dave


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## Martijn (Jun 10, 2021)

New average is based on 1 x first guess + 2 x second guess. So average of three numbers. 
So the goal average has to be multiplied by 3, then take off your girst guess. This leaves you with 2 times your second guess. 
So if your first guess was 5 gram but now you think it's 20 grams, give a number: ((3 x 20) - 5) : 2 = 27.5 so 60- 5 =55. 55/2= 27.5 grams as a second guess to get an average of 20 grams.


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## kurtak (Jun 10, 2021)

The math MGH posted ----

first guess + 2 X second guess divided by 3 = weighted (winning) number

MGH example --- 5 + 2 X 15 = 35 divided by 3 = 11.67

I think there is 21 grams in second pic

So --- 18 + 2 X 21 = 60 divided by 3 = *20* --- THE WINNING NUMBER :shock: :!: :lol: :mrgreen: 

Of course that is still just a guess - I just "hope" it's the winning number :wink: :lol: 

Thanks for the contest MGH & for twisting my head with the math :twisted: 

Kurt


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## kurtak (Jun 10, 2021)

If I understand this contest right MGH will pick the winner by the following math

3 times your second number = A --- then subtract first number from A = B --- then divide B by 2 = X

If X is the closest to his actual yield then you are the winner 

My example; - 20 (my second #) X 3 = 60 - 18 (my first #) = 42/2 = 21

so if 21 is closest to MGH actual yield 21 would be the winning #

MGH - do I have the math right :?: 

Kurt


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## Striker33 (Jun 10, 2021)

Hi Kurtak, if you think the final yield in the picture is 21g, then your second guess needs to be “22.5g”, because:
(18 + 2 x 22.5) / 3 = 21


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## jmdlcar (Jun 10, 2021)

10g


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## jmdlcar (Jun 10, 2021)

I know I won't win because I didn't want to change any of my number. If I knew it was going to be that hard I wouldn't even try to play.


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## MGH (Jun 10, 2021)

kurtak said:


> MGH - do I have the math right :?:



Kurt, I think you got a little tripped up. Striker33 has it right. If you want your final calculated, winning number guess to be higher than your first guess, then your second guess - the one to post in this thread - will need to be at least a little higher than what you want the final calculated number to be.

In your case, if you think there is 21g of gold sitting on that watch glass, then yes, make your second guess 22.5g


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## jmdlcar (Jun 10, 2021)

I can't believe what I m reading now.


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## Martijn (Jun 11, 2021)

Jmldcar: PM me your new guess ( the one you want to count as final averaged guess) and I will reply in PM with the correct number to enter here.


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## kurtak (Jun 11, 2021)

MGH said:


> In your case, if you think there is 21g of gold sitting on that watch glass, then yes, make your second guess 22.5g



Yes - I think there is 21 grams sitting on the watch glass

so 22.5 is my number

Kurt


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## Striker33 (Jun 11, 2021)

Great job on the refine MGH and thanks again for the contest. This was fun, but I wish you would have given us a picture of a button to guess on because then I could use an equation to help me get the final volume! My second guess is 29.5g.


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## AndyWilliams (Jun 11, 2021)

I guess 22.8 grams!


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## MGH (Jun 11, 2021)

Striker33 said:


> ... I wish you would have given us a picture of a button to guess on because then I could use an equation to help me get the final volume!


I did say I like to make things difficult sometimes. But actually the jeweler wanted the gold returned as shot so it would be easier to alloy and cast however they desired. That part wasn't just me making it unnecessarily difficult.

*Nonetheless, Striker33, with the highest weighted average guess of 28g, you are the winner!* If you'll PM me an address, I'll get the silver out to you next week.

The weight was *36.71 grams*. Auful came _awfully_ close to this amount with the second guess of 36.99g, and also _awfully_ close to Striker's final value with 27.50g.

Yes, more than 50% of the weight of the starting material. I was surprised. There were quite a few tiny flecks of visible metallic gold distributed throughout that didn't show up in the picture. Still, I was surprised at the yield. Keep an eye out for such material at dentists' estate sales!

It was great to see people involved here, especially members helping members. May we all strive to do so in daily life where it matters vastly more than an ounce of silver!

Thanks GRF!
- Matt


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## Striker33 (Jun 12, 2021)

Yes! I am so happy to take the W and the silver. I spent more time than I should have trying to figure out this final weight. 

The most difficult part for me was trying to get a sense of depth on the pile of gold. I tried estimating the depth of the pile with a free trial of photoshop, but that didn’t work. However photoshop did allow me to isolate the perimeter and it calculated an area of about 10.5cm^2. Then, all I had to do was estimate the average height and rough density as far as the volume packing. I also flattened my 1ozt button into a rough round about the dimensions of a maple leaf and my gut was telling me this was going to be a lot. So I went with the highest guess.

Overall that is an incredible yield. I figured if it was worth making a contest about and the dentist seemed to have known exactly what he was collecting in the bag, then it would be a nice percentage. A google search told me average gold dental scrap runs ~40%, so that helped, but I was on the edge of my seat haha. Thanks MGH for responding to questions so quickly, sticking to your dates and running a nice organized competition!


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## kurtak (Jun 12, 2021)

So my winning guess wasn't the WINNING number  

CONGRATULATIONS Striker33 :G --- your the man 8) :mrgreen: 

In all the years I spent refining it has always surprised me in "guessing" how much a final melted down button/bar is going to weigh by just looking at a pile of gold with a large surface area

Sometimes I "guess" it close - other times my "guess" is way off by more or less what I "think"

Anyway - that is how I "guessed" --- I tried to picture in my mind the large surface area of the shot to a melted button  

MGH --- NICE yield :shock: 8) --- THANKS for the contest - it really was interesting (as they always are)  

Maybe - I will be the winner of the next one :wink: :mrgreen: 

Kurt


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## Martijn (Jun 12, 2021)

Congratulations! I was way off. And thanks for the fun contest MGH.


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## Auful (Jun 13, 2021)

Congrats striker and thank you for the contest; that was fun.


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## jmdlcar (Jun 13, 2021)

A picture of the gold on a scale would have been nice.

That way we all would have known.


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## MGH (Jun 14, 2021)

jmdlcar said:


> A picture of the gold on a scale would have been nice.
> 
> That way we all would have known.


So everyone knows, the weight I posted was the weight of the refined gold, period. I do not have a picture of the gold on a scale. Nor do I have any reason to invent ways to give away an ounce of silver to a stranger of my choosing  

Not wanting to assume anything, I PM'ed jmdlcar to ask if the above comment was a joke about making the contest easier, or if he was implying that I was not being truthful about the yield and contest results. His reply, very short, indicates that it was not a joke.

jmdlcar,
Again, I take offense at my integrity being called into question on the open forum - especially without any prior correspondence. It seems you may be frustrated by this contest in general, but calling my character into question is inexcusable.

To everyone else, again,
Thanks for the participation. I'm glad you enjoyed the contest.


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