# The Coming Metals Shortages and Availability



## austexdude (Nov 21, 2008)

Two words

China and India

Two Nations, Two billion people, living in shacks and riding bikes. Those two billion people are expected to want to live in structures and drive mechaical machines over the next decade.

America is a nation of 300 million. Look what we consume.

As this huge block of people that is over 6 times the population of the USA build their lifestyles, it will cause a huge demand and shortages of copper, aluminum, tantalum, gold, silver, platinum, pallidium, titanium, nickel, and many other metals. 

Copper, aluminum, silver, and tantalum will be expensive. In 10 years they will not be able to get copper and aluminum out of the ground fast enough to meet demand. 

You get a cargo tainer and store your cleaned copper and in 2020 you will be banking it. You could be looking at $10/Lb for #1 cleaned copper.

Take a bug sprayer and spray the whole lot down with white vinegar and rinse it to remove the tarnish so you don't get payed at #2 rate.

When supply can't meet demand, any little problem in the system can cause a huge spike in price...that's when you pounce.


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## austexdude (Nov 22, 2008)

That's barring any unseen forces that ruduce world population drastically like a massive plague, nuclear holocost, asteroid strike, attack from God, attack from space aliens, global warming, ice age...etc...etc...etc...

Whatever the media thinks up next to instill fear.


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## viacin (Nov 22, 2008)

We are about to go into a global shortage of everything if we continue in our same path with no new technologies to save our butt's. Steel is the least of our worries, as people will just wait for it to be delievered, that is untill we run out of iron. Our biggest problems is going to be Oil and Corn. Oil is, at the best, expected to last another 40 years. Corn is already in massivly short supply, and as oil gets worse more and more will be used for ethanole. America feeds most fo the world, but we only have so much land to use. 

Every day we lose more and more farmers. For those that don't know most farmers live on borrowed money ($500,000 -$1,000,000+ every year) to plant in the spring, and they pay it back in the winter. It's been the farmers way for at least a century, if not since the middle ages (remember serfs?). With banks tightening down and running out of money, these farmers cannot afford to plant in the spring. After a few years of this they have no choice but to find jobs in the city. This is an ongoing problem that is getting much worse. 

When oil runs out, we will have no choice but to come up with something else. We could do it now, but we don't because it is so expensive. And don't forget, all commercial fertilizers are made using pertolium byproducts. Without oil, the huge boom in crop yeilds we saw in the 50's will be gone. We could hardly feed our little nation back then, now our population is out of sight, plus the millions upon millions of tons of grain and feed we send overseas every year.

We are humans, not dinosaurs, however. We can invent our way out of just about anything, from the first spark of fire to our hydrogen bombs. We will prevail, but the cheap days of living are just about over with. I believe my son (who is 4) is the last generation of cheap livers. In 30-40 years, prices on everything will skyrocket, people will starve, and the world will be much worse than it is now. Save your gold, pass it down to your grandchildren. They will need it much more than you do.

OOh, and btw. China itself is over 1,327,370,000 people now. India is 1,140,890,000. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population
Here's a chart.

[img::]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/PopCountries2005.gif[/img]


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## Chuck_Revised (Nov 22, 2008)

austexdude said:

"That's barring any unseen forces that ruduce world population drastically like a massive plague, nuclear holocost, asteroid strike, attack from God, attack from space aliens, global warming, ice age...ect...ect...ect...

Whatever the media thinks up next to instill fear."

The global shortages have a high likelihood of instigating the next major war. The competition between nations for resources will drive the developing nations to extend their influence and control. China will be a major threat in the coming decades.

Sigh...


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## Harold_V (Nov 22, 2008)

Chuck_Revised said:


> austexdude said:
> 
> attack from space aliens, global warming, ice age...ect...ect...ect...



I think he meant *etc...etc....etc..*
_There is no ect------_etc. is a contraction of the words et cetera-----or am I missing something?

Harold


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## Noxx (Nov 22, 2008)

In french it's ect...


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## austexdude (Nov 22, 2008)

Harold_V said:


> Chuck_Revised said:
> 
> 
> > austexdude said:
> ...



LOL...yea I did...fixed...thanks


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## austexdude (Nov 22, 2008)

Chuck_Revised said:


> austexdude said:
> 
> "That's barring any unseen forces that ruduce world population drastically like a massive plague, nuclear holocost, asteroid strike, attack from God, attack from space aliens, global warming, ice age...ect...ect...ect...
> 
> ...



Yea...not only huge threat from China but India too....Not to mention if those two ever decide to duke it out and drag everyone else in.


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## qst42know (Nov 22, 2008)

One doesn't nuke your best customers. 

They take a pound of copper turn it into a 1000 cell phones and sell it back to us at a super premium.

I would more suspect our leaders sold our jobs to them for just that reason, to keep world peace. The rich get richer, the little guy gets screwed, and no one gets nuked. Those are the sound fundamentals George was talking about.


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## Harold_V (Nov 22, 2008)

Noxx said:


> In french it's ect...


Chuckle!

Those damned Frenchmen do everything backwards, eh? :lol: 

Harold


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## butcher (Nov 22, 2008)

maybe thats where I got it, Etcetera :wink: 
thanks Harold I went all these years saying and writing it wrong.
w


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## Harold_V (Nov 22, 2008)

butcher said:


> maybe thats where I got it, Etcetera :wink:
> thanks Harold I went all these years saying and writing it wrong.
> w



Damn, I should be the last person to correct anyone's English, not being much of a scholar, but getting that one backwards gets my attention like nothing else. 

I mentioned, previously, that I moderate another forum. On it, there's a retired college dean, who has a sig line that says "You are what you write". 

We are generally judged by the words we put on the screen. Armed with that knowledge, I do my level best to come across as an individual that knows enough to come in out of a storm. It doesn't always work----it can't when you lack education, but simply by keeping one's eyes and ears open, it's amazing how you can upgrade your writing skills. 

I realize I'm far from a great writer, but having the privilege of posting for readers has been as beneficial for me as it may have been for some of them. I thank everyone for their kindness and patience with me. 

Harold


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## austexdude (Nov 23, 2008)

Seriously...Just imagine holding on to your copper for at least 10 years. If you could save up your copper and aluminum in those 55 gallon blue barrels and wait for the calamity to happen, which it will, you could be talking a nice payout.

If you can keep it from getting stolen. Keep your barrels stacked inside a cargo container that is bolted to the Earth.

It's like the ultimate insurance policy because although the price may drop now and then, we all know that it's only up from here in the long haul. 

The age of the waster has fallen

As for the future of America...we have become sloth, decadent in our ways. Many people will die in the coming years due to the lack of ability to adapt to the brave new world...A world in which America is no longer the dom power, but a mere shell of what it used to be.


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## Oz (Nov 23, 2008)

austexdude,

There is in my opinion a resource shortage because of easy inexpensive energy to fuel the mining of these elements, the easy pickings are gone. The question you have to ask yourself is if there will be true production demand for base metals in a slowing global economy before there is a demand for traditional metals such as gold and silver as hard money as the public wakes up to the fact that their paper currencies are being diluted and devalued. To be clear I believe we are hitting peak mineral production the same as you hear about peak oil. Industrial metals will take longer to go up in value that monetary metals until such time as industry can start to prosper again. I would imagine it is easier to buy goods in silver and gold than in copper under most scenarios.


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## austexdude (Nov 23, 2008)

Expect a long period 6 months to a year of $50 oil and $1.45 gas but then at the end of 09 to mid 10 we will start seeing a period of hyper inflation that will dwarf anything seen in past times.


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## Rag and Bone (Nov 23, 2008)

I went past a big steel company today. They had acres of scrap steel lined up. Dumpsters full of stainless!


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## Seamus (Nov 24, 2008)

It's time to stock pile scrap and process it. And hold enough for higher prices. When the shortage gets here, you will have the new wave of precious metals. It will be better than the stock market. You will be holding durable good$ and not a piece of paper. Base metals will have real value in the near future. Along with gold , silver and PGM's. Copper, nickel, etc.


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## austexdude (Nov 24, 2008)

Yea I'm looking for a used cargo container I can put on the back of a friend's property. They are going for about a grand on ebay used and beat up but I bet if you be studious you can find one for a couple hundred and maybe even free if you watch craigslist constantly.

Imagine if you would have saved all the copper and aluminum cans that passed through your hands in your life...If you could crush those cans and copper in a hydrolic press before storing it you could really maximize your space.

How about all those catalytic converters you passed laying on the side of the road in your life or the TV you pass someone puts out for garbage. If you have a cordless drill with you it only takes 5 mins to get the back off, pop the cones off, cut out all the wires, put the back back on, and be on your way. That adds up fast.

You have thrown away, walked past, and driven past millions of dollars of scrap in your life.

You watch...I bet copper goes above $7 sometime in this next decade...Just have the copper when it happens. 

The key to this working is telling as few people as possible about it or you will lose it somehow.


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## Palladium (Nov 25, 2008)

Harold_V said:


> I mentioned, previously, that I moderate another forum. On it, there's a retired college dean, who has a sig line that says "You are what you write".



Man am i in trouble.

Hey Harold.


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## Harold_V (Nov 25, 2008)

Hey, Dude!

Good to see you back. I was a bit worried about you earlier---concerned about your health. 

Hang in there-----

Harold


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## austexdude (Nov 30, 2008)

After the past weeks so-called terror attacks in India you can guess that the global power elite are going to use India to do their bidding against Pakistan. The beefing up of India's military is going to take a lot of metal.


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## audragon (Dec 1, 2008)

If you hoard metals, at some point you will be called an enemy of the state.

It's best to keep these things quite...


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## Seamus (Dec 1, 2008)

I'm glad that I'm not running a scrap metal business under that rule. My pile does not exceed a couple hundred pounds at a time of mixed metals.


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## Rag and Bone (Dec 1, 2008)

I'm no expert but I don't see metal prices coming back up for a long time. Not until the global economy turns around. The scrapyards around here are hurting. Nobody is bringing anything in with the current prices. It just isn't worth it, especially with steel.


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## istari9 (Dec 2, 2008)

I just do not have the room to store computer cases waiting for better prices. I have to sell the steel but I do continue to hold the other metals. They have a better return for the space they require to store. 

Ray


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## austexdude (Dec 2, 2008)

Rag and Bone said:


> I'm no expert but I don't see metal prices coming back up for a long time. Not until the global economy turns around. The scrapyards around here are hurting. Nobody is bringing anything in with the current prices. It just isn't worth it, especially with steel.



Yea...we are not talking short term here...10 years possibly upwards of 20...but if you are a young guy you can think of it as much better than a 401K or market account because it's a sure pay off.


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## usaman65 (Dec 2, 2008)

It might come down to copper at $8-$10 per pound, and silver and gold skyrocketing, but its not a "doomsday" episode. 

kev


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## Rag and Bone (Dec 2, 2008)

Don't wait underwater... 

Today US Steel is shutting down several facilities. They must figure it's going to take a while to get prices back up. I'm not excited about selling the couple tons of steel that I have but I'm running out of space.


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