As gold nears $1900.00, could this be the big one?

[galenrog]

I have to agree with Dave. Please keep all political opinion off the Forum. It contributes to arguments that we would not have otherwise. That distracts from the purpose of the forum.

Getting back to what I believe is the original premise of this thread. Should I sell my gold?

My opinion is that I should sell my gold when I need to sell. Price points are not as important as paying off
debt and accumulating assets. Whether gold is 1400 or 1900, I will sell if it serves a purpose.

Right now my wife has a particular financial goal. Most new silver goes directly to that when I have enough to realize a decent payday. Everything else is stacked.

Time for more coffee.

 

[patnor1011]

I would blame "social media" and TV, newspapers. There is not much division in fact. When you go out and talk to people or neighbors most of us usually go along fine. There is always that odd creep but that is nothing new. Politics were always based on dividing people and lately they mastered way on how to weaponize massmedia and antisocial media. To the point of oversaturation with news which are no news anymore but worthless opinion pieces and propaganda. Mostly coming from anonymous keyboard warriors and people with a chip on a shoulder pushing some agenda.

I say people should ignore opinion pieces, facebook, twitter, and TV as a whole and all unrest and division will evaporate fairly quickly.
Economy and the state of it is different matter. It started coming down crapper when politicians, governments and states started experimenting with socialism again. I have seen it and I know how it ends up since I lived through it but it seems that people really can only learn from their mistakes. So countries which did not tasted it yet, naturally dream about it. They shall get it and reap the fruit of socialism - once they will find out there is none, things may change again.

 

[snoman701]

The economy is cyclical. You expand, peak, fall back, then contract...rinse and repeat. Politicians can speed it up, slow it down, whatever....but it's going to happen in that order. You can't have constant growth no matter who's at the helm. We are now in a recession. What happens this week in the market is going to determine the next six months or so, since you have earnings releases for the biggest tech stocks on the nasdaq. Gold is a safehaven when investors don't know where else to put their money. Silver is an industrial commodity that tracks well with oil, but also with growth. Copper is shooting up right now on concerns of supply due to COVID 19 and Chilean mine workers strike. The other metals really sorta suck.

Food is going up not because of inflation (yet) but because of supply chain disruptions and demand. Yesterday there was a snipped on the radio about a beer can shortage. Where people used to drink out of kegs, now they are drinking at home and this has stressed aluminum can production. Some less popular drinks are getting discontinued to use the cans for more popular. We have changed how we eat, and where we get our food from.

For the most part, for commodities that are traded on the futures market, production costs for food are still low due to low oil prices. Produce is going to go up because of a labor shortage due to lack of agricultural visas. Can't sell it if you can't get it out of the field.

As for when to sell.

Getting back to what I believe is the original premise of this thread. Should I sell my gold?

My opinion is that I should sell my gold when I need to sell. Price points are not as important as paying off
debt and accumulating assets. Whether gold is 1400 or 1900, I will sell if it serves a purpose.

Right now my wife has a particular financial goal. Most new silver goes directly to that when I have enough to realize a decent payday. Everything else is stacked.

This...exactly. I have a specific financial goal I'm working to get to right now. If I sell my pm's and make it to my goal, it sets me up for more success than what having physical metals on hand ever would. It's a personal decision. Having an ounce of gold on hand for the apocalypse doesn't do you much good if you lose your house waiting for it.

 

[kurtak]

Well, will the gold price top it's all time high in the next few days? $1900.00 is my sell point and I think I'm going to stick with it. But then that little voice........ :shock:

Per the underlined - I would listen to that little voice & hold

Why ? --- Because - at least in part what has caused gold/silver to go up is the devalued dollar as a result of the 6 trillion dumped due to the covid thing - with the resurgence of the covid thing there will be another stimulus dumping of another 2 - 3 trillion which means further devalue of the dollar --- therefore I believe over the next 2 -3 months gold is likely (plus/minus) another $200 - & because silver normally lags a bit behind gold I believe silver will likely go up at least another $5 - & potentially another $10

jimdoc posted

I wouldn't sell it all. Keep some for insurance.

Words of wisdom - in fact as I explained above I am going to hold ALL for at least the next 2 - 3 months --- as always we will see ups & downs but I believe for the next few month we are going to see greater ups then downs

with $2,000.00 an ounce for gold $20.00 for an ounce ofsilver very possibly being the new low point on the scale.

I agree - at least in the sorter term (next 6 months to a year) depending on how &/or the time it takes to equalize the current dumping of money

Gentlemen, you've crossed the line. This has now become a debate on politics, and you know that violates forum rules.

Dave - I agree - I do not care to discuss political views on issues "in general" - though I may have an opinion on issues in general (the wall - racism - etc. etc.) I will hold those views to myself

However - that said - I do care what happens to "my money"

I have a FAIR amount of "my money" invested in gold & silver

Discussion of gold & silver is in fact the purpose of this forum - & that includes the discussion of where the value of gold & silver may - or not go - as we all have a vested interest in what may or not happen with the price of gold & silver

The price of gold & silver has a "direct" relationship to the value of the dollar

The value of the dollar has a "direct" relationship to what our national debt is

When the Fed "dumps" trillions (they "borrow" that money through the federal reserve - which are privet owned banks) the national debt goes up - the value of the dollar goes down - causing the price of ALL commodities to go up (inflation)

We are "currently" watching exactly that take place with the current dumping of "about" 6 trillion & they plan to dump another 2 - 3 trillion --- commodities - including gold & silver WILL go up --- that is economics 101

Gold is currently at $1,900/ozt - that is in part due to the (de)value of the dollar - which in part is due to the current national debt - which is currently at "about" 26 trillion

Now then - I don't care one bit which party DUMPS the money that devalues our dollar - thereby causing the price of commodities to "inflate" --- what I do care about - is how much one party - or the other - "intends" to DUMP - causing the above effect

The simple FACT of the matter is - it just happens that it is the DEMs that are "openly" saying they intend to dump a HUDGE amount of money into our national debt --- in other words - I would feel the same if it was Republicans talking about dumping 90 trillion --- in other words my view is NOT Republican VS Democrat - it is money VS money & how one money compared to the other money is going to effect my bottom line

This is what I "know" --- gold is currently at $1,900/ozt --- our national debt is currently 26 trillion

Therefore - considering "basic" economics 101 - if they were even talking about simple doubling the national debt - you can expect the price of gold (along with ALL other commodities) to "at least" double

That means the value of my dollar - will DE- value by "at least" double - I will need "at least" twice the money to buy the same thing

But they are not simply talking about doubling our national debt (another 26 trillion) they are talking about DUMPING another 90 trillion PLUS - that is close to 4 time MORE our current debt

If you don't think that will devalue our dollar & inflate the price of commodities by AT LEAST 4 time - Then I just don't really know what to say - other then common sense tells me our economy will go into such a "free fall" that I will not be able to put enough $100 bills in my wallet to pay for anything

Therefore - depending on the outcome of the up coming election - I am holding on to my gold & silver - it is the one thing I have - that may at least off set the potential free fall we could see - IF - leadership changes in this next election

So my view is what may happen with the money rather then the politic "in & of them selves" - but - it also just so happens - that what happens with the money will be determined by politics - which in turn be determined by this coming election

So I will hold my gold/silver till then because gold could go 4 times higher then the current price - but I will need EVERY penny of that to off set the inflation of the devalued dollar

Kurt

 

[Lino1406]

The attached illustration was posted by me a while ago. The "world money" was under-estimated at $75 trillions, more correctly at that time - $125 trillions. Now, with the current printing, you may assume safely, $200 trillions. Hence the "reasonable" price for gold ounce = $10000 (env.)

 

[snoman701]

The attached illustration was posted by me a while ago. The "world money" was under-estimated at $75 trillions, more correctly at that time - $125 trillions. Now, with the current printing, you may assume safely, $200 trillions. Hence the "reasonable" price for gold ounce = $10000 (env.)

That's just it, people don't get that this isn't a local to your government issue.

Where we stand in relation to the world markets, is political...how we prepare ourselves to be competitive while providing basic services to our populace, that's political...but the inflation of valuation of currency and equities, is the same across the board throughout the world.

I consistently have to remind myself on commodities that what happens in the US is just a fraction of the picture.

 

[niks neims]

The attached illustration was posted by me a while ago. The "world money" was under-estimated at $75 trillions, more correctly at that time - $125 trillions. Now, with the current printing, you may assume safely, $200 trillions. Hence the "reasonable" price for gold ounce = $10000 (env.)

The nose knows )) !

Actually great post, my view on the undervaluation of gold exactly!

 

[nickvc]

I nearly posted yesterday regarding Dave’s comment.
The discussion of future precious metal prices I’m afraid will always have to be viewed with an eye to political goals now and in the future, this is where I feel sorry for the mods as the rules state no political discussion but how can we discuss prices without an eye to what the politicians and governments are doing.
Perhaps if the op only states provable facts without his or her spin or views that should be allowed so long as it contributes to the discussion as to what’s happening to prices, if we start discussing the merits or downfalls of any party, politician or government then no that should be stopped, we all have personal views on politics but here is not the place to air them.

 

[snoman701]

So yes with just a few trillion being dumped into the economy - we are already seeing an increase in inflation due to devalue of the dollar - which in turn is causing the price/cost of commodities - including PMs to go up

I was curious last night when I was checking the Asian markets to see what today was going to be like.

Commodity futures prices on staples are all down from January. Pork, Beef, soybeans, corn, wheat, etc.

Everything you are seeing increases in, are increases due to processing infrastructure and good ole profiteering.

Yes, the meat is up in the grocery store. Bread is up. My chocolate bars are up.

But the producer is making less. With true inflation, you'd see the market cost go up as well.

Even the USD index. We aren't that much lower than where we started the year...in fact, if we hadn't bumbled up our coronavirus response, we'd probably be higher. (it's literally been the last two weeks that it's started to dip)

 

[kurtak]

I was curious last night when I was checking the Asian markets to see what today was going to be like.

Commodity futures prices on staples are all down from January. Pork, Beef, soybeans, corn, wheat, etc.

Everything you are seeing increases in, are increases due to processing infrastructure and good ole profiteering.

Yes, the meat is up in the grocery store. Bread is up. My chocolate bars are up.

But the producer is making less. With true inflation, you'd see the market cost go up as well.

Even the USD index. We aren't that much lower than where we started the year...in fact, if we hadn't bumbled up our coronavirus response, we'd probably be higher. (it's literally been the last two weeks that it's started to dip)

Snow

It's not like the day they "dump" the money it effects ALL parts of the market "all at once"

But what we know FOR A FACT - is that when they "dump" LARGE amounts - the value of the dollars "goes down" & when the value of the dollar goes down & it has less buying power (it takes more money to buy stuff) which results in inflation

The who, how, where, & why the market(s) react to the devalued dollar (due to money "dumping) depends on where (in the market) the inflation "starts" --- sooner or later though - the inflation takes effect across the board - as money (now devalued) gets shifted around in the market

In other words - things still go up & down - but (for the most part) the new lows stay above the old highs

That is why when I first started refining 13 years ago gold was around $500 - $600 ozt.

When the economy crashed in 2008 gold took off & went to a high of "around $1,800

That was the result of "stimulus" money dumping (mostly in the form of "bail out" money)

Once the market started to correct it's self gold did not go back to the "old" low - the "new" low became $1,100 - $1,200 --- because of inflation (& a devalued dollar)

And along with that - the buying power of my money did not go back to it's buying power before 2008

Did it "somewhat" adjust ? - yes ' - but my dollar will not buy what it did before 2008 - due to inflation - as a result of money dumping after the 2008 crash

I don't have time to post more today because we are starting work an hour early to beat the heat so will Try to pick up on this tomorrow morning

With that said - you also posted ----------

.in fact, if we hadn't bumbled up our coronavirus response,

That is moving out side the box of (political) money & how it may - or not - effect the price of PMs & moving into "other" things political --- therefore - though I have an opinion on that I will not comment - & I ask that you try to avoid making comments that open the door to "other" political issues

Kurt

 

[kurtak]

With that said - you also posted ----------

.in fact, if we hadn't bumbled up our coronavirus response,

That is moving out side the box of (political) money & how it may - or not - effect the price of PMs & moving into "other" things political --- therefore - though I have an opinion on that I will not comment - & I ask that you try to avoid making comments that open the door to "other" political issues

Kurt

That is - unless you can put it in the context of how the stimulus money has/may - or not - be effecting the price of PMs

Kurt

 

[silversaddle1]

Heading for $2000.00 today!

 

[metatp]

Great post Kurt.

 

[snoman701]

.in fact, if we hadn't bumbled up our coronavirus response,

That is moving out side the box of (political) money & how it may - or not - effect the price of PMs & moving into "other" things political --- therefore - though I have an opinion on that I will not comment - & I ask that you try to avoid making comments that open the door to "other" political issues

Kurt

My statements following Dave's reprimand have been quite objective and data driven.

My statement was very clearly stated as a relation to the USD index. If anything, my statement SUPPORTED your statements of excessive spending speeding inflation.

You keep wanting to open the political door.

I'm data driven.

If you want to have a discussion about science and politics of control, lets start at the beginning. I think the origins of modern science and the papacy would suffice?

But holy crap, quit trying to make this about politics.

Heading for $2000.00 today!

It's still bullish, but if it doesn't take 2-3 days to hit $2,000, I think it will have a hard correction. Last nights correction in the Hong Kong markets slowed momentum down a lot....which is good. When RSI gets above 70 on the 1 hour chart it's really hard for it to even back off without a hard correction. Just too much excitement. That excitement breeds fear. And you get what silver had last night. A $3/oz correction in 30 minutes in the futures market.

What is driving this run is guys sitting behind computers. For just $9,900 you can buy a 10,000 oz silver or a 100 oz gold futures contract on margin. Every half cent in price action on silver is worth $25...every dime on gold is worth $10. I do it on occasion...for a guy with a net worth under 100 grand it's pretty high stakes gambling.

It's happening for a lot of reasons, but the most recent straw added to the ailing camel was Nasdaq's correction last week. For the longest time, QQQ was a safe index fund to continue to grow your account because tech was doing great (overbought like crazy, but doing great). Now, people are worried that tech is no longer the place to hold your money, so they are looking for something that weathers corrections well. That's gold.

For the life of me, I don't understand silvers current run up. It usually follows golds bull run because it's value is so dependent on industrial use, so it waits for economic recovery. But there are a lot of retail traders that clearly don't know the rules (hedge fund managers are crying like crazy right now because the markets aren't predictable, the same as they weren't in 2008).

 

[rickbb]

guess it's time to polish up that little 1 ozt bar and take some pics tonight. 8) :G

 

[kurtak]

in fact, if we hadn't bumbled up our coronavirus response

It is entirely possible I misunderstood that comment - that being the case - I am truly sorry :!:

I kind of realized that after my first post --- which is why I also posted

That is - unless you can put it in the context of how the stimulus money has/may - or not - be effecting the price of PMs

No time to post more today

Spent ALL day on my knees tying rebar for a foundation on a new home build - 100 plus temps --- even the "young" guys on the crew are struggling with the heat :lol:

Kurt

 

[snoman701]

Spent ALL day on my knees tying rebar for a foundation on a new home build - 100 plus temps --- even the "young" guys on the crew are struggling with the heat :lol:

I remember three types of days doing mobile ironwork. 100 plus days where i bought my bottled water in gallons, days so cold your fingers cracked and days where you drug your hoses and leads through mud so sticky they weighed four times as much by the time you spooled them back up.

And those days the framing carpenters were NEVER working. The only ones that worked were the plumbers, concrete guys and ironworkers.

on edit, added "framing"

 

[rickbb]

Spent ALL day on my knees tying rebar for a foundation on a new home build - 100 plus temps --- even the "young" guys on the crew are struggling with the heat :lol:

I remember three types of days doing mobile ironwork. 100 plus days where i bought my bottled water in gallons, days so cold your fingers cracked and days where you drug your hoses and leads through mud so sticky they weighed four times as much by the time you spooled them back up.

And those days the framing carpenters were NEVER working. The only ones that worked were the plumbers, concrete guys and ironworkers.

on edit, added "framing"

Which is why I gave up on outside work and now spend my days in front of computers. Tried all those professions when I was young and working my way through school. 8)

 

[Jmk88]

The correction is complete I believe.

48£ a gram will be the new support level for the future I don’t think you’re going to see an opportunity to buy much less than current ever again.

Once the correction is complete I believe by January 2021 we are looking at a price of 60£ a gram for sure.

 

[snoman701]

I think it's over, but there is nothing to keep it from happening again.

The selloffs have been happening in the Asian markets.

However yesterdays began in ours. Yesterdays selloff was precipitated by stagnation in the stimulus talks. We were doing good, McConnel spoke, then the entire market started selling off ten minutes after....dragging down ETF's with it.

That is the volatility. Everything is set to a hair trigger right now.

Silver moved from 24 to 26 in two hours last night. Then back to 25 in an hour.

Just now silver was moving so up fast that I can't even get a limit order in. I fully expect it will come back down at greater speed.