Hi, predicting the price of gold is tough.
I can give you an observation of what I have read about gold for the past few years. Some of this is compiled opinions from gold experts and some of it is from my opinion from researching about gold.
Let's start with availability. Many different things I researched showed South Africa, Australia and many other major mines are dropping in output year after year just starting recently about ten years ago. You can read the charts online easily by searching google. Another article I read mentioned how in the 1970's when satellites were going up in space, the technology helped find more gold deposits and they stated that all the easy gold to find is gone now.
Another one of my observations is if you see some of South African mines, they are so deep that they have to expensively pump A/C in or the workers die from heat exhaustion. My contention is how much deeper can they go?
Another thing that will raise the price is more expensive machinery, more expensive environmental costs, more expensive labor, fuel and operating costs.
Now look at consumption. Many countries like China, India (which have exploded in population) as well as Russia, countries in Asia and South America that had many poor people living in mud huts or whatever, are now more wealthy and are purchasing gold jewelry and electronics which use gold. Industrial plants in these countries are exploding in growth, another user of precious metals. China will be building 200 new cities and that alone will use up a large amount of gold. Now there are 1 to 2 billion more people buying cars, computers, electronics, building homes and buying gold jewelry in China alone that used to grow rice and live a meager life.
Although on the other hand, we may stay in this recession for many years. Also, millions and millions of people bought gold ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds) and physical gold. A run on selling this accumulated gold will cause more than a modest drop. I've read opinions from hundreds if not thousands of individuals talking about buying gold and the dealers that said they were running out of gold and silver. For the first time in almost 20 years since its inception, the U.S. Mint halted the sale of gold coins.
In my opinion, millions of people hoarding gold and silver can affect the price with a panic sale, more than could an investment fund that invested in gold. The IMF also has plans to sell 403 tons of gold (if it's approved) over the next few years.
Someone turn me over, I'm starting to burn LOL
(I had to stop myself, I can easily post the longest message on this forum. I've been known to put animals asleep from excessive talking lmao)