Gold predictions????

[Hartbar]

It’s estimated that there’s about 7% more gold held today than 25 years ago.
Not sure how many ounces that is, but every ounce is worth $2700 USD vs $253 USD.

That says everything you need to know about inflation and the value of the $USD.

 

[anarxi]

It’s estimated that there’s about 7% more gold held today than 25 years ago.
Not sure how many ounces that is, but every ounce is worth $2700 USD vs $253 USD.

That says everything you need to know about inflation and the value of the $USD.

this is manipulation.
If we compare it with the past, then we need to evaluate it with the cost of having a child, a set of daily meals and the cost of a funeral.
three things that accompany all human civilization...

 

[Hartbar]

this is manipulation.
If we compare it with the past, then we need to evaluate it with the cost of having a child, a set of daily meals and the cost of a funeral.
three things that accompany all human civilization...

If compare the USD to other things you mention, childbirth/food/etc, to me it sounds about the same, all these things cost close to 10 x what they did 25 years ago, housing included.
Inflatinary indeed, not a good thing for the worlds reserve currency.

 

[anachronism]

If compare the USD to other things you mention, childbirth/food/etc, to me it sounds about the same, all these things cost close to 10 x what they did 25 years ago, housing included.
Inflatinary indeed, not a good thing for the worlds reserve currency.

Aye, and the reason why precious metals were replaced with paper currency

 

[Master Nater]

the only thing that i would push to consider is that most folks on here are only thinking of gold's value in terms of the USD. my suggestion is for everyone in your own corner of the globe to consider it is not that the value of gold that goes up and down. i say it does not. i say it is the value of your own currency that goes up and down. due to that, what you are seeing is only an inverse reaction of the change in value of each of your currencies. simply explained, in terms of the gold/USD ratio, it's the USD that is changing, not the gold. in x/y, when y goes down, the quotient inversely goes up. *edit for correction*

one thing IS certain. the value of the USD is not going to go back up any time soon. i believe it is only going to continue downward. you can call it 'inflation' if you want, but it is simply de-valuation of the USD. an item i could buy yesterday for an ounce of gold, it may not buy it tomorrow. but that same ounce of gold will still buy it.

i believe that the fall of the USD will only get worse once the BRICS nations comes out and the world begins trading petroleum under their new gold-backed currency. the smaller nations that currently use the USD as their currency, will switch to the BRICS currency as they will need something stable, and stop being shadow-taxed by the USD devaluation. after that, the demand for USD will fall off a cliff. being an american, my only hedge against this, is not having my buying power in USD, but in gold or some other form of tangible good.

each of you need to make the choice on whether your country's currency is going to go up or down. not whether gold is up or down. because on a long enough time line, gold never changes. Good luck and happy stacking.

 

[snoman701]

That's completely untrue, though lots of people love to cite limited examples to show support of the arguments. Not only does the value of gold go up and down, so does the value of the currency. It is not a simple linear / proportional relationship. It's an ever changing cyclical relationship.

 

[Yggdrasil]

That's completely untrue, though lots of people love to cite limited examples to show support of the arguments. Not only does the value of gold go up and down, so does the value of the currency. It is not a simple linear / proportional relationship. It's an ever changing cyclical relationship.

True, and a lot of known and unknown factors in play as well.

 

[Alondro]

I keep PMs for an emergency hedge against inflation. I don't have enough to be meaningful unless there's an economic crisis. For instance, we sold one house... and made 6x more from that sale than the TOTAL value of PMs I'm holding!

I just grab more PMs when the price gets low, and hold onto them in case one of the 'The Big One' events happens in my lifetime!

 

[4metals]

I have over the years converted all of my holdings into recognizable commodities such as maple leafs and Morgan silver dollars to make trading easier. I have seen in the past when volatility causes the markets to run the gold price up and then drive it down. By following the markets I have successfully sold metal when I suspected it will fall and repurchased it when I think it has bottomed out. While my goal has always been to hold on to metals, trading when the market does $100 swings and hitting it right (which may be considered a game of chance) has allowed me to cash out some profit from those swings and retain what the wife and I refer to as the kids inheritance.

 

[anachronism]

I have over the years converted all of my holdings into recognizable commodities such as maple leafs and Morgan silver dollars to make trading easier. I have seen in the past when volatility causes the markets to run the gold price up and then drive it down. By following the markets I have successfully sold metal when I suspected it will fall and repurchased it when I think it has bottomed out. While my goal has always been to hold on to metals, trading when the market does $100 swings and hitting it right (which may be considered a game of chance) has allowed me to cash out some profit from those swings and retain what the wife and I refer to as the kids inheritance.

There's an interesting aside to your last point namely the kids inheritance. I'm unsure of the tax rules in the US however in the UK for inheritance tax purposes any precious metals in the form of legal UK tender are considered to have a value that is the tender value, rather than the metal value .

For example a 1 oz gold coin is currently minted as a coin with a value of £100, so 100 of these would be deemed to be in your estate at a value of £10,000 rather than the value of the 100 oz of gold.

 

[Justincase]

There's an interesting aside to your last point namely the kids inheritance. I'm unsure of the tax rules in the US however in the UK for inheritance tax purposes any precious metals in the form of legal UK tender are considered to have a value that is the tender value, rather than the metal value .

For example a 1 oz gold coin is currently minted as a coin with a value of £100, so 100 of these would be deemed to be in your estate at a value of £10,000 rather than the value of the 100 oz of gold.

For the 2024-25 tax year, the annual exemption for CGT is £3,000. This means that investors can make up to £3,000 in profit from their assets before paying any tax.
The CGT rate is usually between 10–28%, depending on the investor's tax band. However, investors in higher tax brackets may pay less CGT on gold because it's taxed at the marginal rate of 28%.

 

[haveagojoe]

For the 2024-25 tax year, the annual exemption for CGT is £3,000. This means that investors can make up to £3,000 in profit from their assets before paying any tax.
The CGT rate is usually between 10–28%, depending on the investor's tax band. However, investors in higher tax brackets may pay less CGT on gold because it's taxed at the marginal rate of 28%.

In the UK, all gold, silver and platinum bullion coins produced by The Royal Mint are classed as CGT-free investments - Britannia coins, Sovereigns and Queen's Beasts.

www.royalmint.com/gold-price/capital-gains-tax-on-investments/

 

[4metals]

Surely all of our members inform the tax man about every button they refine!

 

[Justincase]

Surely all of our members inform the tax man about every button they refine!

The thing about living on such a small island is that you can no nothing without someone poking there nose in.
I have to spend over three grand a year on accountants just to insure I do not inadvertently step over a line I did not know existed.
Basically we have to pay for our own prison guards.
We do not have to tell them about every button we refine, but we do about every bit we buy and sell.
Failure to keep proper records will normally result in a stiff penalty, 17.5% of the value of the transactions concerned.
Any small gains one could make by trying to circumvent the system is far outstripped by the penalty.
Imaging being fined 17.5% of what you had managed to turn over that year, not the capital you actually hold.
Some might be able to take that risk, but that would ruin me

 

[4metals]

We do not have to tell them about every button we refine, but we do about every bit we buy and sell.

We don't have to tell them what we sell here in the US but it is normally on the books somewhere that the transaction took place. But if our members refine their own scrap and hold on to the metal rather than cash it in, that "non-transaction" is essentially invisible until the metal is sold.

 

[Justincase]

We don't have to tell them what we sell here in the US but it is normally on the books somewhere that the transaction took place. But if our members refine their own scrap and hold on to the metal rather than cash it in, that "non-transaction" is essentially invisible until the metal is sold.

Our government are not so understanding.
If you are doing something with the expectation of making a profit you are expected to "self assess".
Even selling your junk on eBay is classed as "Running a business from home".
You can try and slip between the cracks, but it only takes one bureaucrat to initiate an investigation that will go through your affaires right the way down to the weight of your dental filling.
So you learn early on to cross all your "T's" and dot all your "I's"if you value a quiet life.

 

[4metals]

If you are doing something with the expectation of making a profit you are expected to "self assess".

I guess it all comes down to what degree self assessment is carried out to. All of the income a refinery makes is from selling it's product. And from that sale all expenses are deducted to come up with a net profit. As we all know it can be difficult as there are multiple income streams over time from any scrap-type processed and sold. In the end we report out total income less our total expenses and that is our profit. How anyone could come in and tell a refiner with their own assay lab exactly how much they made is beyond me, especially if they produce fine sellable metals in house. Our accountants never could figure it out so I don't see how an auditor who isn't exceptionally well versed in the industry can come up with a true number. Especially when a quantity of metal is kept as working inventory to facilitate daily transactions. Accountants get dollars and cents, weights and assays not so much.

 

[Alondro]

Our government are not so understanding.
If you are doing something with the expectation of making a profit you are expected to "self assess".
Even selling your junk on eBay is classed as "Running a business from home".
You can try and slip between the cracks, but it only takes one bureaucrat to initiate an investigation that will go through your affaires right the way down to the weight of your dental filling.
So you learn early on to cross all your "T's" and dot all your "I's"if you value a quiet life.

I have $10 trillion in unobtanium! The government will NEVER find out! ;D

 

[goldshark]

I guess it all comes down to what degree self assessment is carried out to. All of the income a refinery makes is from selling it's product. And from that sale all expenses are deducted to come up with a net profit. As we all know it can be difficult as there are multiple income streams over time from any scrap-type processed and sold. In the end we report out total income less our total expenses and that is our profit. How anyone could come in and tell a refiner with their own assay lab exactly how much they made is beyond me, especially if they produce fine sellable metals in house. Our accountants never could figure it out so I don't see how an auditor who isn't exceptionally well versed in the industry can come up with a true number. Especially when a quantity of metal is kept as working inventory to facilitate daily transactions. Accountants get dollars and cents, weights and assays not so much.

Fortuneatley, the US tax code is still fairly straight forward. If you purchase some PM's, you can write that off as an investment. Any profit you make (capital gains ), are taxed at 33% on PM's. The original investment will be taxed at a rate corresponding to a tax bracket based on annual income, at time of sale. So a lot of variables to consider.

 

[anachronism]

For the 2024-25 tax year, the annual exemption for CGT is £3,000. This means that investors can make up to £3,000 in profit from their assets before paying any tax.
The CGT rate is usually between 10–28%, depending on the investor's tax band. However, investors in higher tax brackets may pay less CGT on gold because it's taxed at the marginal rate of 28%.

The CGT rates are now 18%/24% basic rate/higher rate. The only addition uplift is for residential investment properties.
As haveagojoe quite correctly pointed out, legal tender attracts no CGT.

Trading in precious metals (and coins) as a business attract normal taxes on profits not CGT, and the tax rate obviously depends upon the trading style of the business i.e. Limited company or Sole trader/Partnership.