Gold predictions????

[4metals]

So with the current affirmations in US politics, what is the prediction for our accumulated precious metals? Hold ‘em or fold ‘em????

 

[anachronism]

With regards to gold I don't think the US political landscape alone is the price driver. It appears to be the worldwide situation and uncertainty we are living with. A calmer world with less wars would probably not help the price.

 

[Justincase]

I must admit, I wish I had managed to get my last set of acquisitions processed and sold last week.
My trading desk has an accounting day on Friday, so I won't have my reimbursement until Monday's market opens.
Much like as sky jump with all your liquid assets, I hope it does not drop too much over the weekend.

 

[4metals]

A calmer world with less wars would probably not help the price.

As a holder of the shiny metal, and one versed in recovering and refining it, (as many here are as well) I like it when the prices rise and remain high. But at the same time if wars are what it takes to drive that rise, is it worth it? At the same time if the worldwide outlook is declining, it is better In my humble opinion, to be holding physical metal.

My opinion of holding physical metal is predicated on it being owned outright and used speculatively. When running a refining business, speculation can be dangerous.

 

[Justincase]

As a holder of the shiny metal, and one versed in recovering and refining it, (as many here are as well) I like it when the prices rise and remain high. But at the same time if wars are what it takes to drive that rise, is it worth it? At the same time if the worldwide outlook is declining, it is better In my humble opinion, to be holding physical metal.

My opinion of holding physical metal is predicated on it being owned outright and used speculatively. When running a refining business, speculation can be dangerous.

My main finical holding is a half built property development I have been trying to rase enough funds to finish for over a decade.
I have a "Float" that is enough for me to pay clients as long as I keep turning it over quickly, it is unfortunately insufficient for speculative holding.
Recently I have increased the size of the lots I run, which has made my life easier as I no longer have to process material every day.
Unfortunately, the longer interval between acquisition and liquidation has left me open to adverse market fluctuations such as this.
Let us hope for a Raleigh as people bunker down.

 

[snoman701]

So with the current affirmations in US politics, what is the prediction for our accumulated precious metals? Hold ‘em or fold ‘em????

There were no fundamental changes in the market yesterday. People pulled money out of holding in precious metals to put it in the rally on wall street, that caused the price to go down. DJI and S&P today are mostly steady, and commodities are rising.

This market is pricing so far in the future, it's hard to keep track, but if people paid attention the first four years of this administration, there were minimal fundamental changes to fiscal policy and a ton of chaos, and it's hard to believe that the next four will be any different.

 

[anachronism]

As a holder of the shiny metal, and one versed in recovering and refining it, (as many here are as well) I like it when the prices rise and remain high. But at the same time if wars are what it takes to drive that rise, is it worth it? At the same time if the worldwide outlook is declining, it is better In my humble opinion, to be holding physical metal.

My opinion of holding physical metal is predicated on it being owned outright and used speculatively. When running a refining business, speculation can be dangerous.

Agreed. The key words being owned outright. Having gold that was paid for at a price less than half the current price (and in cases like yours probably 1/10th) leaves a lot of room for speculation over time. A 10% downward movement wouldn't be an earth shattering issue.

 

[4metals]

(and in cases like yours probably 1/10th)

Yeah, I guess I am that old!

 

[snoman701]

Yeah, I guess I am that old!

Aren't we all?

I'm just not that SMART to have gold from 25 years ago.

 

[Shark]

Aren't we all?

I'm just not that SMART to have gold from 25 years ago.

No, but I do have some silver from that far back. Gold is a recent thing for me.

 

[4metals]

I've got silver from the $2.50 range of the early '70's. I have always managed to make a decent living teaching folks how to refine that I never had to dip into the profits I made from refining on my own. I just sold what I had to in order to pay for the material and kept the rest.

I shouldn't say that, actually in the late '70's I sold all of my Silver when the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the Silver market they ran it up from about $6 to $40 and I cashed in close to the end. Bought it all back when it dropped to $16 and added it back to the pile.

 

[Shark]

I've got silver from the $2.50 range of the early '70's. I have always managed to make a decent living teaching folks how to refine that I never had to dip into the profits I made from refining on my own. I just sold what I had to in order to pay for the material and kept the rest.

I shouldn't say that, actually in the late '70's I sold all of my Silver when the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the Silver market they ran it up from about $6 to $40 and I cashed in close to the end. Bought it all back when it dropped to $16 and added it back to the pile.

I did nearly the same back then. I did keep quite a bit of the art bar stuff just because I liked looking at them. I started buying silver bars back in the late 60's and early 70's for those art bars. I sold about 2500 of them off the day before the crash. Shortly there after I started back buying them again. For kid still in high school, I felt like a king with that much cash.

 

[Hartbar]

If your holding precious metals, Au and Ag, your cost to me is not important.
Each oz of both is worth what the market pays on any given day, based on spot and discounts.

The price going forward? All commodities are traded in the worlds reserve currency, the US$, for now.

Look at the charts, dollar weakness equals precious metal strength 9 out of 10 days.

With the US sitting on 36 trillion in debt, having added 1 trillion of that in last 6 months alone, tax cuts coming from new president, the fed continuing to cut rates, it has to be dollar weakness coming.

That equates to metal value strength in my book.

Be long, hold.

 

[haveagojoe]

With the US sitting on 36 trillion in debt, having added 1 trillion of that in last 6 months alone, tax cuts coming from new president, the fed continuing to cut rates, it has to be dollar weakness coming.

I agree. The new president's economic policies are inflationary and I suspect intentionally so, despite him running on the promise of reducing prices. To make any significant impact on the budget he would have to cut military spending, which seems unlikely given the geopolitical climate and depleted arsenal; he won't increase taxes; cutting rates will further deter bond investors, who are already divesting; raising rates will increase outgoings on interest payments which are already unaffordable, equal to the entire military spend... In other words it's a debt spiral and the only way to address it is to inflate it away by debasing the currency. It seems to me that this is the objective of the tariffs proposal.

Meanwhile BRICS nations are accumulating bullion rapidly and their collective holdings are approaching that of the Fed. Taiwan has a pretty large stockpile which would tip the balance to BRICS if China were to appropriate it. BRICS have been making noises about a partially gold-backed currency to rival the dollar and a new payments system to superceed SWIFT; if they achieve the biggest bullion holding they could do it. India has just repatriated another big chunk of its bullion holdings from London vaults, and African nations are nationalizing their mines. To fend off the threat to dollar supremacy the Fed could start buying to try to increase its holdings, but that would drive the price up further, weakening the dollar even more.

I can't see any way but up for the dollar price of gold in the medium to long term. On the daily there was some profit-taking since the election but it hasn't lasted long, the steady upward momentum still seems to hold, by my interpretation of the chart- I will be even more confident if it breaks above $2710 again in the next day or two. If I had money to spare I would be buying rounds. I have never seen such a combination of bullish factors.

(Disclaimer: This is not investment advice, speculate at your own risk)

 

[AuggieDog]

There were no fundamental changes in the market yesterday. People pulled money out of holding in precious metals to put it in the rally on wall street, that caused the price to go down. DJI and S&P today are mostly steady, and commodities are rising.

This market is pricing so far in the future, it's hard to keep track, but if people paid attention the first four years of this administration, there were minimal fundamental changes to fiscal policy and a ton of chaos, and it's hard to believe that the next four will be any different.

Exactly. This is just what I told some people asking me about the situation. If you ask me, gold is worth keeping a tight fist on right now. I'm sorry, but I truly feel we have the most overvalued stock market in history. One wrong move and it will be exposed in a very unpleasant manner. Gold will be your very best friend if it does.

 

[anachronism]

I agree. The new president's economic policies are inflationary and I suspect intentionally so, despite him running on the promise of reducing prices. To make any significant impact on the budget he would have to cut military spending, which seems unlikely given the geopolitical climate and depleted arsenal; he won't increase taxes; cutting rates will further deter bond investors, who are already divesting; raising rates will increase outgoings on interest payments which are already unaffordable, equal to the entire military spend... In other words it's a debt spiral and the only way to address it is to inflate it away by debasing the currency. It seems to me that this is the objective of the tariffs proposal.

Meanwhile BRICS nations are accumulating bullion rapidly and their collective holdings are approaching that of the Fed. Taiwan has a pretty large stockpile which would tip the balance to BRICS if China were to appropriate it. BRICS have been making noises about a partially gold-backed currency to rival the dollar and a new payments system to superceed SWIFT; if they achieve the biggest bullion holding they could do it. India has just repatriated another big chunk of its bullion holdings from London vaults, and African nations are nationalizing their mines. To fend off the threat to dollar supremacy the Fed could start buying to try to increase its holdings, but that would drive the price up further, weakening the dollar even more.

I can't see any way but up for the dollar price of gold in the medium to long term. On the daily there was some profit-taking since the election but it hasn't lasted long, the steady upward momentum still seems to hold, by my interpretation of the chart- I will be even more confident if it breaks above $2710 again in the next day or two. If I had money to spare I would be buying rounds. I have never seen such a combination of bullish factors.

(Disclaimer: This is not investment advice, speculate at your own risk)

Yes- BRICS is the one to watch.

 

[kurtak]

So with the current affirmations in US politics, what is the prediction for our accumulated precious metals? Hold ‘em or fold ‘em????

Fold em (at least some)

Don't have time right now to post why I think that

Kurt

 

[4metals]

I guess there is one advantage of holding metal and being old. I don't have to count on any government programs, present or future, to survive.

My wife just reminded me of a second advantage of being old, I have seen, live in concert, all of the great rock bands in my lifetime!

 

[goldshark]

So with the current affirmations in US politics, what is the prediction for our accumulated precious metals? Hold ‘em or fold ‘em????

PM's have always held their value. The best analogy is that what cost the same, in Ag/Au in 1900, costs the same amount as in 2000, or any other time. In my opinion, the price of metals only reflects what is happening with inflation. If you analyze how inflation works, let's just say at 3% for shits and giggles, and is compounded, you will see how the 3% keeps adding up to not just 3%, but a higher figure like 3.03% a year. Over 33 years, it is higher then 4%. I don't know if my math is correct, but the one thing I do know, is goods will not go down in price.
The bottom line is sell your metals if you need the cash, hold onto it if you don't. Cash sitting around in your pillow, or under the mattress, is constantly shrinking every day.

 

[macfixer01]

I recall the old-timers here were never that concerned when gold went up or down, they could make money either way. It wasn’t readily apparent to me why at the time though. The point is is that gold has intrinsic value that really hasn’t changed much in many years. The fact that you receive more Dollars or Euros for an ounce of gold you sold today than gold you sold last month or last year, just means the fiat currency you traded it for has that much less buying power now. Hang on to as much of your physical gold as you can! Although you might want to transfer it to a more easily salable form, like gold coins or bullion, if you can do so without paying too much premium.